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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/26/2008
CNW (Con-Way, Inc.--$49.86; -1.22; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnw.html
EARNINGS: Late April
STATUS: Test breakout. CNW was one of the truckers that rolled higher to end last week and start this one. It broke out from a 9 month double bottom with handle base on that move, showing strong volume as oil (and diesel) backed off. It has dropped the past two sessions, but tapped between the 10 day EMA (49.48) and the 18 day EMA and rebounded Tuesday as volume fell back. Looking for it to hold here, get it back in gear, and make the move higher. Mid-America Trucking Show starts Thursday, so maybe that will get it revved up. Yes, I keep up with those kind of things.
Volume: 1.706M Avg Volume: 1.235M
BUY POINT: $50.89 Volume=1.9M Target=$59.65 Stop=$48.65
POSITION: CNW FJ - June $50c (58 delta, 244 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cnw.html
Play Date: 03/26/2008
GME (Gamestop--$52.98; -0.87; optionable): Electronic games stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gme.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-18-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Used to love how GME would make us great money in 2007. Then it topped from October through December and fell into the current 12 week base. It needed it. Bottomed in March and rallied, kicking it into gear last week with its earnings announcement, breaking through the 200 day SMA on the way up and the 90 day SMA as well. It has come back Tuesday and Wednesday to test that move, tapping the 90 day on the Wednesday low (52.23) and bouncing back. May take another session or two to finish the handle or the modest pullback, but when it starts back up we move in as GME is ready to return to leadership.
Volume: 2.309M Avg Volume: 3.575M
BUY POINT: $54.08 Volume=5M Target=$63.95 Stop=$52.11
POSITION: GME GJ - July $50c (66 delta) or GME GK - July $55c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gme.html
Play Date: 03/26/2008
NKE (Nike--$66.27; -2.10; optionable): Athletic clothes
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nke.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-19-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Nothing like strong earnings to break a stock out of a base, and then getting a nice pullback to give us a buy point. NKE jumped out of a 15 week double bottom base last week on those earnings results and raced over 70. It is now pulling back on much lower volume. It may come back more, but Wednesday it held at some key peaks from November and December. If it bounces from here we want to be ready to move in and catch it on the rebound so to speak. Could have said we would 'just do it,' but that is a bit blas .
Volume: 5.163M Avg Volume: 4.152M
BUY POINT: $67.11 Volume=6M Target=$77.45 Stop=$65.68
POSITION: NKE GM - July $65c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nke.html
Play Date: 03/26/2008
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$31.29; -1.47; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
STATUS: Breakout test. We watched URBN set up, then watched it breakout last week on strong volume, clearing a 15 week ascending base. It is coming back to make a full test of that move, fading toward the 10 day EMA (30.89) on lower, below average volume. Will likely come back to that level, and when it bounces on some more volume, we move in.
Volume: 4.216M Avg Volume: 4.667M
BUY POINT: $31.65 Volume=5.5M Target=$37.95 Stop=$30.69
POSITION: URQ FF - June $30c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/urbn.html
Play Date: 03/26/2008
ZOLL (Zoll Medical--$27.69; -1.02; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zoll.html
EARNINGS: Third week of April
STATUS: Test breakout. It has been a long 15 month base after a very impressive run in 2006. After that slog in the twilight zone, ZOLL has perked things up, breaking sharply higher off a twin test of the 200 day SMA down at 24.50 in March. That second test jumped it higher on strong volume. That made a definitive higher high in the long base. It is coming back to test, tapping the 10 day EMA (27.30) on the Wednesday low and rebounding. Lower selling volume. Looking to pick up some Z's as ZOLL rolls off this low volume test.
Volume: 341.214K Avg Volume: 248.463K
BUY POINT: $27.97 Volume=375K Target=$33.95 Stop=$27.11
POSITION: ZQQ FE - June $25c (72 delta, 36 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/zoll.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/25/2008
BCR (C.R. Bard--$97.49; -1.66; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html
EARNINGS: End of April
STATUS: double bottom with handle. Fell back from the breakout point at 100, falling to close at the 10 day EMA on lower but still above average volume. Needs to hold here to show it has plenty of strength, then deliver the goods. Simple. To recap: After a 15 month trading range lasting through mid-December 2007, BCR exploded higher and out of the range. It rallied to 100, often a magnet and yet a resistance point for stocks. It was both for BCR. It formed the current 9 week base below 100, making a pair of bottoms, the one to start March a bit higher, holding the 90 day SMA. Gapped higher last week to . . . 100, and has worked laterally just below 100 since. Volume has been on the rise. Looking for the breakout to move into positions.
Volume: 984.921K Avg Volume: 840.203K
BUY POINT: $100.11 Volume=1.3M Target=$112.85 Stop=$97.32
POSITION: BCR GT - July $100c (54 delta, 133 OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bcr.html
Play Date: 03/24/2008
NUS (Nu Skin--$18.81; +0.08; optionable): Synthetic skin
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nus.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-6-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice. Continued back to the 10 day EMA (18.61), undercutting it on the Wednesday low, but then starting back up and turning positive on rising though still below average volume. Excellent action and ready to move in as NUS generates a nu move in the breakout run off of this test. To recap: NUS surged higher to start last week, clearing a 17 week cup base on some very strong volume that lasted for a good week. It tested the move to end the week, showing a nice doji with tail that tapped the 10 day EMA (18.53) on the low and then rebounded. Part of a larger 1.5 year cup base it cleared with the same, move, NUS has put in the work to set up its next extended run higher. Ready to pick it up off of this bounce.
Volume: 358.426K Avg Volume: 389.148K
BUY POINT: $19.08 Volume=600K Target=$22.95 Stop=$18.38
POSITION: NUS FW - June $17.50c (68 delta, 73 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nus.html
Play Date: 03/24/2008
SCSC (Scansource--$36.95; +0.04; optionable): Wholesale technology products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/scsc.html
EARNINGS: Third week of April
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Bumping up against the breakout move, but just not quite tearing it off. Volume was up to end last week and to start this one, but it has not pushed SCSC this week. Still looks ready, just want to see the backing. To recap: Another solid session of above average volume as SCSC flirted with the breakout from its nice 20 week base. Nice set up for a break to a new all-time high as SCSC bangs at the breakout point of its base. Strong money flow is leading higher and volume is swelling. Strong pattern and just waiting for the upside break to give us the buy point.
Volume: 297.538K Avg Volume: 306.77K
BUY POINT: $37.15 Volume=450K Target=$42.95 Stop=$34.55
POSITION: UHI FG - June $35c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/scsc.html
Play Date: 03/24/2008
YTEC (Yucheng Technologies--$17.24; +0.19; optionable): Chinese intellectual technology solutions for banking industry.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/ytec.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Low, low volume fade the past two sessions after that Monday jump in price and volume. Nice pullback to make a higher low and let it get a running start at the breakout. Very nice consolidation of that move. To recap: YTEC treated us rudely last time around but it has set up a new strong base and we are willing to let by-gones be by-gones. Volume was solid the past three sessions, sending YTEC surging higher Monday. It has formed a base on base pattern the past 6 months, holding the 90 day SMA during the March selling. Heading toward a breakout to a new all-time high for this stock that came public in 2005.
Volume: 116.768K Avg Volume: 274K
BUY POINT: $18.24 Volume=325K Target=$21.95 Stop=$16.96
POSITION: TXE GW - July $17.50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ytec.html
Continuing Downside: The market overall is setting up for upside, but these had a big run and still look to correct and consolidate after their previous strong runs.
Play Date: 03/19/2008
AGU (Agrium--$65.30; -0.89; optionable): Ag chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-13-08
STATUS: Double top. Rallied up to the 50 day EMA (67) Tuesday, then started to fade back, tapping at the 90 day SMA (64.61) on the Wednesday low. Low trade on this dip, but still watching for a break lower. Need to see the volume come in as it does, but a move below the 90 day SMA will say a lot about the strength, or lack thereof. Double topped spanning December and February, and is currently testing the drop from that high that took it below the 90 day SMA last week on high volume. Has recovered as the dollar weakened and is now at the key point to either make it or roll over. Money flow is still in the crapper, and after that long 2007 run we are staying ready for a break lower.
Volume: 2.263M Avg Volume: 3.546M
BUY POINT: New: $64.48 (orig. $62.89) Volume=3.8M Target=$57.75 Stop=$65.22
POSITION: AGU PM - Apr. $65p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/agu.html
Play Date: 03/19/2008
CVX (Chevron-Texaco--$84.96; +0.42; optionable): Integrated oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cvx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-1-08
STATUS: Put. Continued higher, making it to the 50 day EMA (85.68) on the Wednesday high then fading back for a modest loss. Volume remained lower and below average on this bounce. Now we see if it rolls over and follows the money flow lower. To recap: After the heavy Wednesday selling CVX bounced Thursday and again Monday, but it could only make the 50 day SMA on the intraday high (84.80) before slipping back down to close. No volume to drive it as trade fell way below average, the lowest trade since late February. That shows no heavy buying to send it higher. Still looking for the rollover to take some positions.
Volume: 11.448M Avg Volume: 12.969M
BUY POINT: $83.88 Volume=15M Target=$79.12 Stop=$85.11
POSITION: CVX PQ - Apr. $85p (-60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cvx.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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