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us stock market, trend trading stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS: Some more high quality stocks setting up to lead once more.
New Post-Split Play:
New buy point on a current position:
Play Date: 03/27/2008
CSX (CSX Corp.--$55.46; -1.51; optionable): Railroads
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/csx.html
EARNINGS: 4-15-08
STATUS: Test breakout. CSX is making the second test of its mid-March breakout from an 8 month double bottom with handle base. It surged on solid volume for us and has started the test the past two sessions. It will likely come back to test the 10 day EMA (54.22) on the low of the test and then rebounde. We are looking to pick it up off that test, adding to positions in a very strong market leader.
Volume: 5.043M Avg Volume: 6.432M
BUY POINT: $54.55 Volume=7.5M Target=$61.45 Stop=$53.97
POSITION: CSX HK - Aug. $55c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/csx.html
New Leader Plays:
Play Date: 03/27/2008
CSH (Cash America Intl.--$38.08; -1.45; optionable): Pawn shops
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/csh.html
EARNINGS: 4-28-08
STATUS: Trend reversal. CSH broke sharply higher this month, moving through a 14 month down trendline formed off the December 2006 peak that marked the top of a year and one-half run. A year and one-half up, just over a year down; sounds ready to move back up. It is doing just that, surging higher past the October 2007 peak where it stalled a rebound attempt. After that move it peaked Tuesday and has started to come back. Looking for it to turn back up and move past the October peak (39) and give us a buy. It may come back some more toward the 10 day EMA (36.09) before turning back up. If it does we will step in on the bounce off that level at 36.65.
Volume: 644.7K Avg Volume: 423.055K
BUY POINT: From the Thursday close: $39.22. On a test of the 10 day EMA at 36, 36.65 on the way back up. Volume=700K Target=$44.31 Stop=$36.89
POSITION: CSH FH - June $40c (51 delta, 189 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/csh.html
Play Date: 03/27/2008
DRS (DRS Technologies--$57.01; +1.04; optionable): Aerospace/defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drs.html
EARNINGS: 5-13-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Great volume Thursday as DRS bounced off a weeklong test of the 50 day EMA (55.36). The 50 day EMA acted as support in the handle, the shakeout before the next break higher. Nicely formed 15 week base that is part of a larger 2 year ascending triangle, a nice bullish pattern. Money flow is surging higher ahead of price, and looking to move in as DRS continues its move higher on volume and clears the handle. Very nice and a very solid stock.
Volume: 641.35K Avg Volume: 508.119K
BUY POINT: $58.08 Volume=700K Target=$66.85 Stop=$56.22
POSITION: DRS FK - June $55c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/drs.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Forecast in April.
ACV: Researching date
BCR: Late April
CELG: Researching date
EAC: No announcement yet. Quite a recovery from the selling.
ECA: Bounced off the 50 day EMA, trying to hold the move now
ESV: Tentatively looking at 4-24-08
GGB: Researching date
GME: Forecast in June
ISRG: Tentatively set for late April
JOYG: Researching date.
MA: Forecast late April
RIG: Forecast mid-May
WFT: Tentatively forecast late April
WMS: Researching date. Came under fire from high volume selling.
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/27/2008
JAKK (Jakks Pacific--$28.08; +0.52; optionable): Toys, pet toys, electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jakk.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-20-08
STATUS: double bottom with handle. A jack of all trades in the toy arena, and it has set up a solid 8 month base preparing the stock for a break to a new all-time high. Excellent volume in late February as JAKK surged higher and formed the second leg of its double bottom. It has spent the past 4 weeks moving laterally and lower on very low, declining volume, forming the handle, the point where the impatient ones are weeded out. Volume has started to swell over the past week as JAKK starts to stir to the upside. Looks very good for the breakout soon.
Volume: 688.346K Avg Volume: 654.168K
BUY POINT: $28.95 Volume=981K Target=$34.95 Stop=$26.92
POSITION: UFF FE - June $25c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/jakk.html
New buy point on a current position:
Play Date: 03/27/2008
AAPL (Apple Computer--$140.25; -4.81; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aapl.html
EARNINGS: 4-23-08
STATUS: Cup. After a nice run higher for us on its first serious run off the bottom of its 12 week cup base, AAPL started to test back Thursday, but doing so on lower, below average volume. Of course all of the volume this past three weeks is on below average volume. Nonetheless, it shows now real selling, and AAPL closed where it gapped lower in late January. If it holds here and starts back up we are in for more positions. If it continues back to the 50 day EMA (137) we will be patient and pick it up as it bounces off of that support.
Volume: 35.708M Avg Volume: 48.109M
BUY POINT: $141.42 Volume=50M Target=$159.95 Stop=$136.88
POSITION: APV GH - July $140c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aapl.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/25/2008
BCR (C.R. Bard--$98.85; +1.36; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcr.html
EARNINGS: End of April
STATUS: double bottom with handle. Tapped the 10 day EMA on the Wednesday close then bounced Thursday in a weak market, hanging right in there in its pattern. Solid action and just waiting for the breakout to show itself. To recap: After a 15 month trading range lasting through mid-December 2007, BCR exploded higher and out of the range. It rallied to 100, often a magnet and yet a resistance point for stocks. It was both for BCR. It formed the current 9 week base below 100, making a pair of bottoms, the one to start March a bit higher, holding the 90 day SMA. Gapped higher last week to . . . 100, and has worked laterally just below 100 since. Volume has been on the rise. Looking for the breakout to move into positions.
Volume: 596.787K Avg Volume: 842.539K
BUY POINT: $100.11 Volume=1.3M Target=$112.85 Stop=$97.32
POSITION: BCR GT - July $100c (54 delta, 133 OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bcr.html
Play Date: 03/26/2008
GME (Gamestop--$54.00; +1.02; optionable): Electronic games stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gme.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-18-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Broke higher Thursday off the 90 day SMA test and though volume was not huge (still well below average) we took some positions. When it makes a breakaway move we will add to that buy. To recap: Used to love how GME would make us great money in 2007. Then it topped from October through December and fell into the current 12 week base. It needed it. Bottomed in March and rallied, kicking it into gear last week with its earnings announcement, breaking through the 200 day SMA on the way up and the 90 day SMA as well. It has come back Tuesday and Wednesday to test that move, tapping the 90 day on the Wednesday low (52.23) and bouncing back. May take another session or two to finish the handle or the modest pullback, but when it starts back up we move in as GME is ready to return to leadership.
Volume: 2.509M Avg Volume: 3.567M
BUY POINT: $54.08 Volume=5M Target=$63.95 Stop=$52.11
POSITION: GME GJ - July $50c (66 delta) or GME GK - July $55c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gme.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/26/2008
NKE (Nike--$65.98; -0.29; optionable): Athletic clothes
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nke.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-19-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Still in the test, giving up a bit of ground Thursday after trying to make the next break higher. Volume fell off to below average, just as you want to see on a continuing test. Just being patiend and waiting for NKE to show us the next break higher. To recap: Nothing like strong earnings to break a stock out of a base, and then getting a nice pullback to give us a buy point. NKE jumped out of a 15 week double bottom base last week on those earnings results and raced over 70. It is now pulling back on much lower volume. It may come back more, but Wednesday it held at some key peaks from November and December. If it bounces from here we want to be ready to move in and catch it on the rebound so to speak. Could have said we would 'just do it,' but that is a bit blas .
Volume: 3.835M Avg Volume: 4.152M
BUY POINT: $67.11 Volume=6M Target=$77.45 Stop=$65.68
POSITION: NKE GM - July $65c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nke.html
Play Date: 03/26/2008
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$30.54; -0.75; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Testing further, coming down toward the 18 day EMA (30.39) on even lower, below average volume. Full test of the break higher from Monday, but we are still looking for an opportunity to move in as URBN breaks higher on volume off this test. To recap: We watched URBN set up, then watched it breakout last week on strong volume, clearing a 15 week ascending base. It is coming back to make a full test of that move, fading toward the 10 day EMA (30.89) on lower, below average volume. Will likely come back to that level, and when it bounces on some more volume, we move in.
Volume: 3.759M Avg Volume: 4.704M
BUY POINT: $31.65 Volume=5.5M Target=$37.95 Stop=$30.69
POSITION: URQ FF - June $30c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/urbn.html
Play Date: 03/26/2008
ZOLL (Zoll Medical--$27.47; -0.22; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zoll.html
EARNINGS: Third week of April
STATUS: Test breakout. Tested a bit further after the breakout, tapping at the 10 day EMA (27.33) and showing a nice hammer doji at that level on lower volume. Excellent action and ready to move in as ZOLL makes its continued breakout move. To recap: It has been a long 15 month base after a very impressive run in 2006. After that slog in the twilight zone, ZOLL has perked things up, breaking sharply higher off a twin test of the 200 day SMA down at 24.50 in March. That second test jumped it higher on strong volume. That made a definitive higher high in the long base. It is coming back to test, tapping the 10 day EMA on the Wednesday low and rebounding. Lower selling volume. Looking to pick up some Z's as ZOLL rolls off this low volume test.
Volume: 290.101K Avg Volume: 248.463K
BUY POINT: $27.97 Volume=375K Target=$33.95 Stop=$27.11
POSITION: ZQQ FE - June $25c (72 delta, 36 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/zoll.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
trend trading stock
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