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us stock market, top stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New pre-announcement plays are found in that section.
New Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 03/29/2008
KO (Coca-Cola--$60.94; -0.37; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/ko.html
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Strong run through 2007 needed a breather to set up the next move, and KO fell into the current 11 week base that formed using the 200 day SMA at 58 on the lows as support. Strong move higher off that level two weeks back, clearing the 90 day SMA (60.90) on the move. It spent last week moving laterally along the 90 day on low volume, forming a handle, consolidating the break higher. Going to let it finish the handle formation and then move in as KO makes the break higher.
Volume: 6.836M Avg Volume: 10.606M
BUY POINT: $62.05 Volume=15M Target=$69.95 Stop=$60.78
POSITION: KO HL - Aug. $60c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/ko.html
New Leader Play:
Play Date: 03/29/2008
KSU (Kansas City Southern--$39.37; +0.22; optionable): Railroads
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/ksu.html
EARNINGS: 4-24-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Blasted higher starting two weeks back, clearing an 18 week reverse head and shoulders base on Monday. Strong volume as it started the run toward the breakout. Then it started to test in the last half of the week on lower and lower volume. It came back to the peaks in the base on Friday, holding there. It should hold in this range and then make the break back to the upside and continue the breakout move. Very solid and very strong money flow. This current pattern is part of a larger 10 month base, a good foundation for a strong move higher.
Volume: 1.181M Avg Volume: 1.004M
BUY POINT: $39.88 Volume=1.4M Target=$46.95 Stop=$38.32
POSITION: KSU FG - June $35c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ksu.html
New Downside Plays:
Downside:
Play Date: 03/29/2008
FWLT (Foster Wheeler--$57.26; -0.20; optionable): Heavy construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fwlt.html
STATUS: Put. FWLT formed a head and shoulders spanning October to February. It tried to make the break higher in February and break up that topping pattern, but it rolled over and gapped lower. It has sold hard, and after another bout the past two weeks it rebounded to the 18 day EMA (59.28) last week, bumping that level Thursday and then rolling over. Volume was not high but money flow is in the toilet. It ran into other resistance at that 60 level other than the 18 day EMA, e.g. a peak in July 2007 and the January low. Looks ready to run lower again and continue its downtrend. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 2.112M Avg Volume: 4.307M
BUY POINT: $56.95 Volume=4.5M Target=$52.04 Stop=$59.31
POSITION: UFB QY - May $57.50p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fwlt.html
Play Date: 03/29/2008
SGR (Shaw Group--$50.00; -1.28; optionable): Waste management facility construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sgr.html
EARNINGS: 4-8-08 (not confirmed)
STATUS: Put. Another big construction company in trouble. A large head and shoulders pattern spanning July to current, breaking lower just over a week back with an ugly drop from the 200 day SMA (67.50). It bounced for a couple of days but then turned over at the 10 day EMA (53.67) and thumped lower Friday. Money flow is diving lower ahead of price, and we are looking to move in as it continues lower. A move to our initial target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 1.988M Avg Volume: 1.846M
BUY POINT: $49.68 Volume=2M Target=$45.55 Stop=$50.88
POSITION: SGR QJ - May $50p (-44 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sgr.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Forecast in April.
ACV: Researching date
BCR: Late April
CELG: Researching date
EAC: No announcement yet. Quite a recovery from the selling.
ECA: Bounced off the 50 day EMA, trying to hold the move now
ESV: Tentatively looking at 4-24-08. Higher volume selling Friday and we closed it to see how this selling plays out.
GGB: Researching date
GME: Forecast in June
ISRG: Tentatively set for late April
JAKK: Tentatively set for mid-May
JOYG: Researching date.
MA: Forecast late April
RIG: Forecast mid-May
WFT: Tentatively forecast late April
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/29/2008
ATW (Atwood Oceanics--$90.94; +0.84; optionable): Offshore oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atw.html
STATUS: Double bottom. ATW is forming a double bottom over the 200 day SMA (81) as support for the two legs. It started higher last week and moved through the 50 day EMA (89.29) where it paused. May move laterally for a session or two before breaking higher, but we want to be ready when it makes the high volume break higher.
Volume: 570.104K Avg Volume: 652.456K
BUY POINT: $92.65 Volume=950K Target=$104.95 Stop=$89.11
POSITION: ATW FR - June $90c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/atw.html
Play Date: 03/29/2008
CHRW (C.H. Robinson Worldwide--$54.59; -0.47; optionable): Air delivery and freight
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chrw.html
EARNINGS: 4-22-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Another transport stock that broke out of a long 11 month base to start last week and then spent the week testing. It was a bit later than some of the trucking stocks to make the break higher, but it set up a nice base. It got caught in the selling after the break higher, but the move back to the 18 day EMA (54.25) was on lower volume. Money flow remains strong, and we are looking for CHRW to hold at the 18 day EMA and then start the move back up. As it clears the early February highs we move in.
Volume: 1.807M Avg Volume: 1.972M
BUY POINT: $56.68 Volume=3M Target=$64.95 Stop=$54.42
POSITION: CJQ HK - Aug. $55c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/chrw.html
New buy point on a current position:
Play Date: 03/29/2008
MA (MasterCard--$217.60; -3.10; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/ma.html
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Looking at more positions on MA as it sets up nicely for another strong upside break. Has made a series of higher lows the past 4 months below a top near 220ish. It broke over that level last week and then pulled back to end the week, tapping the 10 day EMA (215) on the Friday low. Very low volume on the test, so there was no dumping on the pullback. If it shows us a high volume move off this level back over the February peak we are ready to move in with more positions.
Volume: 1.726M Avg Volume: 3.989M
BUY POINT: $220.55 Volume=5M Target=$249.95 Stop=$214.89
POSITION: MAL GD - July $220c (56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ma.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/27/2008
JAKK (Jakks Pacific--$28.14; +0.06; optionable): Toys, pet toys, electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jakk.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-20-08
STATUS: double bottom with handle. Volume was up to end last wee as JAKK probed the breakout point. Still looks great and ready to make the move. To recap: A jack of all trades in the toy arena, and it has set up a solid 8 month base preparing the stock for a break to a new all-time high. Excellent volume in late February as JAKK surged higher and formed the second leg of its double bottom. It has spent the past 4 weeks moving laterally and lower on very low, declining volume, forming the handle, the point where the impatient ones are weeded out. Volume has started to swell over the past week as JAKK starts to stir to the upside. Looks very good for the breakout soon.
Volume: 649.107K Avg Volume: 668.95K
BUY POINT: $28.95 Volume=981K Target=$34.95 Stop=$26.92
POSITION: UFF FE - June $25c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/jakk.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 03/26/2008
NKE (Nike--$65.86; -0.12; optionable): Athletic clothes
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nke.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-19-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Looks to have completed the test, tapping at the 10 day EMA (64.89) on the Friday low and rebounding on strong, above average volume. Nice. Ready to move in as it breaks higher. To recap: Nothing like strong earnings to break a stock out of a base, and then getting a nice pullback to give us a buy point. NKE jumped out of a 15 week double bottom base last week on those earnings results and raced over 70. It is now pulling back on much lower volume. It may come back more, but Wednesday it held at some key peaks from November and December. If it bounces from here we want to be ready to move in and catch it on the rebound so to speak. Could have said we would 'just do it,' but that is a bit blas .
Volume: 5.333M Avg Volume: 4.236M
BUY POINT: $66.88 Volume=6M Target=$77.45 Stop=$65.68
POSITION: NKE GM - July $65c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nke.html
Play Date: 03/26/2008
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$30.27; -0.27; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
STATUS: Breakout test. Similar to NKE, URBN tested lower Friday, tapping the 50 day EMA (29.18) on the low and rebounding on rising, average volume to close basically flat. Good shakeout and this should set it for the next break higher. To recap: We watched URBN set up, then watched it breakout last week on strong volume, clearing a 15 week ascending base. It is coming back to make a full test of that move, fading toward the 10 day EMA (30.89) on lower, below average volume. Will likely come back to that level, and when it bounces on some more volume, we move in.
Volume: 5.002M Avg Volume: 4.759M
BUY POINT: $31.65 Volume=5.5M Target=$37.95 Stop=$30.69
POSITION: URQ FF - June $30c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/urbn.html
Play Date: 03/26/2008
ZOLL (Zoll Medical--$27.47; 0.00; optionable): Medical appliances
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/z/zoll.html
EARNINGS: Third week of April
STATUS: Test breakout. A second tight hammer doji at the 10 day EMA (27.36) on low volume as ZOLL tests the breakout, riding out the market pullback in a very constructive way. Ready to make the move. To recap: It has been a long 15 month base after a very impressive run in 2006. After that slog in the twilight zone, ZOLL has perked things up, breaking sharply higher off a twin test of the 200 day SMA down at 24.50 in March. That second test jumped it higher on strong volume. That made a definitive higher high in the long base. It is coming back to test, tapping the 10 day EMA on the Wednesday low and rebounding. Lower selling volume. Looking to pick up some Z's as ZOLL rolls off this low volume test.
Volume: 138.253K Avg Volume: 247.623K
BUY POINT: $28.08 Volume=375K Target=$33.95 Stop=$27.11
POSITION: ZQQ FE - June $25c (72 delta, 36 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/zoll.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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