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stock recommendation, stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/31/2008
CHD (Church & Dwight--$54.24; +1.17; optionable): Cleaning products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chd.html
EARNINGS: Early May
STATUS: Cup. Strongest volume spike in 5 months as CHD comes off of a higher low made while testing the 50 day EMA (53.28) following last week's break higher. A nice 16 week consolidation of a strong move in November. Like the higher low, the second one since it touched down early in the base at 50, tapping the 200 day SMA and rebounding. Love those higher lows building for the breakout to a new high.
Volume: 1.295M Avg Volume: 480.234K
BUY POINT: $54.48 Volume=700K Target=$62.65 Stop=$52.58
POSITION: CHD GK - July $55c (51 delta, 45 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/chd.html
Play Date: 03/31/2008
IIVI (Ii-Vi, Inc.--$37.98; +2.28; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/iivi.html
EARNINGS: 4-22-08
STATUS: Cup. IIVI is in the process of breaking out from a 24 week cup base, bouncing up and down over the past two weeks, but moving higher as it does. Strong volume Monday as it cleared the recent highs, moving to a new all-time high. Excellent action and looking to move in as IIVI continues the move.
Volume: 525.172K Avg Volume: 238.36K
BUY POINT: $38.31 Volume=300K Target=$44.45 Stop=$35.98
POSITION: JIU GG - July $35c (69 delta, 127 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/iivi.html
Play Date: 03/31/2008
ILMN (Illumina--$75.90; +1.60; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ilmn.html
EARNINGS: Early May
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Volume moved above average for the first time in three weeks and was the strongest in over a month as ILMN broke higher from its 5 week base. Gapped higher in early January from a 12 week pattern and trended higher, but needed to test that move. It dumped lower to start March, falling to the 90 day SMA and filling much of the gap as it did. Bounced off and formed the rest of this base. Strong money flow is leading higher and ILMN is ready to follow it. A buy as it continues the breakout.
Volume: 1.644M Avg Volume: 1.485M
BUY POINT: $75.89 Volume=2.2M Target=$86.95 Stop=$72.88
POSITION: IQA FO - June $75c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ilmn.html
Play Date: 03/31/2008
MANT (Mantech Intl.--$45.36; -0.32; optionable): Business software, solutions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mant.html
EARNINGS: 4-30-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Surged higher mid-month and last week, clearing its 19 week base that formed making higher lows up the 90 day SMA. Strong breakout and a nice, lower volume test the past three sessions, coming back to the 10 day EMA (45.22) and showing a nice tight doji there Monday on a jump in volume. Strong money flow moved it to the breakout, and looking to pick MANT up as it rebounds from the test.
Volume: 346.325K Avg Volume: 237.684K
BUY POINT: $46.22 Volume=357K Target=$53.95 Stop=$44.38
POSITION: UUN HI - Aug. $45c (59 delta, 77 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mant.html
Play Date: 03/31/2008
QQQQ (Nasdaq 100 Trust--$43.72; +0.23; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qqqq.html
STATUS: Cup. The large cap techs are working on a cup base, bouncing off the March low that undercut the January low the past two weeks, then testing that move the past four sessions. It held at the 18 day EMA (43.46) Friday and Monday on the lows, showing a doji there Monday. Looking for a strong break higher here after the higher low. Want to see it clear the 50 day EMA (44.37) as it makes the move and want to see a bit better volume.
Volume: 113.645M Avg Volume: 182.634M
BUY POINT: $44.42 Volume=20M Target=$49.95 Stop=$43.36
POSITION: QQQ FR - June $44c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/qqqq.html
Play Date: 03/31/2008
TMX (Telefonos De Mexico--$37.60; +0.78; optionable): Long distance character
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tmx.html
EARNINGS: Early May
STATUS: Double bottom. Calling this a double bottom because it has made some lows in its 10 month pattern as well as a December peak that looks like the 'hump' in a double bottom base. Strong volume Monday as TMX comes off the 10 day EMA test, moving toward that December peak out of a short handle formed Thursday and Friday. Very interesting and after this long base it is in a very good buy point.
Volume: 2.868M Avg Volume: 1.932M
BUY POINT: $38.31 Volume=2M Target=$44.48 Stop=$36.11
POSITION: TMX HG - Aug. $35c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tmx.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 03/29/2008
CHRW (C.H. Robinson Worldwide--$54.40; -0.19; optionable): Air delivery and freight
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chrw.html
EARNINGS: 4-22-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Tested lower through the 18 day EMA (54.26) and then a strong rebound to close flat as volume jumped back above average. A good shakeout and then a strong recovery shows buyers stepping in. After this shakeout it should be ready. To recap: Another transport stock that broke out of a long 11 month base to start last week and then spent the week testing. It was a bit later than some of the trucking stocks to make the break higher, but it set up a nice base. It got caught in the selling after the break higher, but the move back to the 18 day EMA was on lower volume. Money flow remains strong, and we are looking for CHRW to hold at the 18 day EMA and then start the move back up. As it clears the early February highs we move in.
Volume: 2.306M Avg Volume: 1.992M
BUY POINT: $56.68 Volume=3M Target=$64.95 Stop=$54.42
POSITION: CJQ HK - Aug. $55c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/chrw.html
Play Date: 03/27/2008
JAKK (Jakks Pacific--$27.57; -0.57; optionable): Toys, pet toys, electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jakk.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-20-08
STATUS: double bottom with handle. Low volume test of the 18 day EMA (27.50) as JAKK continues to set up for the breakout. Just waiting for the break higher. To recap: A jack of all trades in the toy arena, and it has set up a solid 8 month base preparing the stock for a break to a new all-time high. Excellent volume in late February as JAKK surged higher and formed the second leg of its double bottom. It has spent the past 4 weeks moving laterally and lower on very low, declining volume, forming the handle, the point where the impatient ones are weeded out. Volume has started to swell over the past week as JAKK starts to stir to the upside. Looks very good for the breakout soon.
Volume: 463.033K Avg Volume: 672.211K
BUY POINT: $28.95 Volume=981K Target=$34.95 Stop=$26.92
POSITION: UFF FE - June $25c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/jakk.html
Play Date: 03/29/2008
KNDL (Kendle Intl.--$44.92; -0.13; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kndl.html
EARNINGS: Late May
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. Still in the nice, flat lateral move that is forming the handle to its base. Excellent action setting up the breakout, and just waiting for it to show us that move. To recap: A stock that has some of the best fundamentals growth rates in the market. Solid move in 2007 needed a base to consolidate and build the floor for the next move. This current 12 week pattern is nice, using the 200 day SMA as the support for the two bottoms; that shows plenty of big money support at that key level. Strong volume on the bounce to form the second leg as it rallied back to 45 and the 'hump' in the middle of the pattern. Now it is working laterally after reaching that level, moving over the 90 day SMA. It may take another session or two of lateral movement to complete the handle, but that is fine. When it breaks higher we will be ready to move in.
Volume: 201.586K Avg Volume: 278.827K
BUY POINT: $45.57 Volume=415K Target=$51.95 Stop=$44.31
POSITION: QNN HI - Aug. $45c (52 delta, no OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/kndl.html
Play Date: 03/24/2008
YTEC (Yucheng Technologies--$16.55; -0.70; optionable): Chinese intellectual technology solutions for banking industry.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/ytec.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Another stock showing a shakeout on the session, selling down to the 50 day EMA on the low (15.55) and rebounding on strong, above average volume to close just over the 18 day EMA (16.40). Nice shakeout that sets up the breakout. To recap: YTEC treated us rudely last time around but it has set up a new strong base and we are willing to let by-gones be by-gones. Volume was solid the past three sessions, sending YTEC surging higher Monday. It has formed a base on base pattern the past 6 months, holding the 90 day SMA during the March selling. Heading toward a breakout to a new all-time high for this stock that came public in 2005.
Volume: 469.435K Avg Volume: 274K
BUY POINT: $18.24 Volume=325K Target=$21.95 Stop=$16.96
POSITION: TXE GW - July $17.50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ytec.html
Downside:
Play Date: 03/29/2008
FWLT (Foster Wheeler--$56.62; -0.64; optionable): Heavy construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fwlt.html
STATUS: Put. Gapped lower then rallied back to positive only to fade in the afternoon. Did not get any volume as it slid lower, but still primed to fall from here. To recap: FWLT formed a head and shoulders spanning October to February. It tried to make the break higher in February and break up that topping pattern, but it rolled over and gapped lower. It has sold hard, and after another bout the past two weeks it rebounded to the 18 day EMA (59.28) last week, bumping that level Thursday and then rolling over. Volume was not high but money flow is in the toilet. It ran into other resistance at that 60 level other than the 18 day EMA, e.g. a peak in July 2007 and the January low. Looks ready to run lower again and continue its downtrend. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 2.264M Avg Volume: 4.309M
BUY POINT: If it can get some volume on the downside it is still a buy (orig. $56.95) Volume=4.5M Target=$52.04 Stop=$59.31
POSITION: UFB QY - May $57.50p (-45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fwlt.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock pick
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