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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/02/2008
COST (Costco--$66.25; -0.24; optionable): Wholesale club
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cost.html
EARNINGS: 5-29-08
STATUS: Trend reversal. After selling off in a 15 week downtrend, COST jumped higher two weeks back, clearing the downtrend after a quick double bottom as the market bottomed in March. It is just coming off a test of that reversal, tapping the 200 day SMA (63.77) Monday and rebounding off a nice doji. It paused Wednesday at the 90 day SMA. Looking for more volume to drive it higher and past the March peak. On a move with more volume we will be ready to move in.
Volume: 3.978M Avg Volume: 6.334M
BUY POINT: $67.22 Volume=9M Target=$76.95 Stop=$64.88
POSITION: PRQ GU - July $67.50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cost.html
Play Date: 04/02/2008
CRM (Salesforce.com--$62.30; +1.08; optionable): Customer relationship management
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crm.html
EARNINGS: Late May
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Strong volume Wednesday as CRM surged higher, breaking out of its 13 week base. Unfortunately it faded back from 66, giving up 4/5 of its move on the session. Still, a very nice base and very ready to breakout and lead the market. Strong money flow. Very nice.
Volume: 2.945M Avg Volume: 1.939M
BUY POINT: $62.57 Volume=2M Target=$71.95 Stop=$59.11
POSITION: CRM HL - Aug. $60c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/crm.html
Play Date: 04/02/2008
ELP (Companhia Paranaense--$17.82; +0.72; optionable): Electric utilities
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/elp.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-17-08
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. Strong above average volume as ELP broke out from its 9 month base, clearing the March peaks. Excellent pattern, excellent break higher. Ready to move in as it continues the breakout, and then we will look to complete the buy when it makes its successful test, i.e. the lower volume pullback that holds support and then starts the next run higher.
Volume: 515.065K Avg Volume: 445.717K
BUY POINT: $18.05 Volume=600K Target=$21.75 Stop=$17.08
POSITION: ELP EW - July $17.50c (59 delta, 115 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/elp.html
Play Date: 04/02/2008
MBT (Mobile Telesys--$82.01; +2.91; optionable): Russian wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mbt.html
STATUS: Double bottom. Strong run from September to January 1 after breaking out from a nice reverse head and shoulders. It then sold back with the market, forming the current 12 week base. It has made a double bottom using the 200 day SMA (77.29) as support. Gapped higher on a strong shot of above average volume Wednesday, moving through the 50 day EMA as it did. This is the kind of nice break higher that we want to buy into as MBT is a market leader that has put together a nice base.
Volume: 2.068M Avg Volume: 1.805M
BUY POINT: $82.72 Volume=2.2M Target=$99.75 Stop=$78.88
POSITION: MBT FP - June $80c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mbt.html
Play Date: 04/02/2008
ROC (Rockwood Holdings--$35.21; +0.79; optionable): Chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/roc.html
EARNINGS: 4-30-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Volume surged Wednesday as ROC broke out from its 19 week base that formed at the bottom of a 6 month cup. Excellent price/volume action of late, showing a surge in volume in March as it broke higher and finished the head, then a nice volume fade as it tested back, then the upside strong volume on the breakout. Looking to move in as ROC continues the move higher.
Volume: 477.5K Avg Volume: 388.908K
BUY POINT: $35.42 Volume=525K Target=$40.95 Stop=$33.78
POSITION: ROC HG - Aug. $35c (60 delta, no OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/roc.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/01/2008
ASIA (Asiainfo Hldgs--$11.30; -0.33; optionable): Software security in China. Kind of ironic, huh?
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asia.html
STATUS: reverse head and shoulders. Modest fade back Wednesday on lower, below average volume as ASIA tested the strong price and volume move Tuesday. Just waiting for the test to end and then we will move in as ASIA breaks higher once more. To recap: Nice volume Tuesday as ASIA jumped higher off the 18 day EMA and the right shoulder of its 5 month nicely formed base. The pattern formed after ASIA moved up to a five year high and a good albeit choppy 2007. This solid, longer base has set the foundation for a solid gain. Looking to move in as ASIA continues the break higher out of the pattern.
Volume: 405.431K Avg Volume: 422.235K
BUY POINT: $11.84 Volume=500K Target=$14.95 Stop=$11.01
POSITION: BUJ GB - July $10c (73 delta, 49 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/asia.html
Play Date: 03/31/2008
ILMN (Illumina--$77.02; -0.91; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ilmn.html
EARNINGS: Early May
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Good volume as ILMN broke higher Monday, but then volume trailed off and it looks as if ILMN is going to test back then start the move once more. A pullback to the 76 range and a bounce form there is a buy as it resume the breakout. To recap: Volume moved above average for the first time in three weeks and was the strongest in over a month as ILMN broke higher from its 5 week base. Gapped higher in early January from a 12 week pattern and trended higher, but needed to test that move. It dumped lower to start March, falling to the 90 day SMA and filling much of the gap as it did. Bounced off and formed the rest of this base. Strong money flow is leading higher and ILMN is ready to follow it. A buy as it continues the breakout.
Volume: 608.469K Avg Volume: 1.493M
BUY POINT: On a test back toward 76 and a bounce (orig. $75.89) Volume=2.2M Target=$86.95 Stop=$72.88
POSITION: IQA FO - June $75c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ilmn.html
Play Date: 03/27/2008
JAKK (Jakks Pacific--$28.76; +0.01; optionable): Toys, pet toys, electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jakk.html
EARNINGS: Announced 2-20-08
STATUS: double bottom with handle. Moved through the breakout point Wednesday, but didn't have the volume to back it so it faded back to flat. On the cusp of the breakout, just needs some buyers to push it. To recap: A jack of all trades in the toy arena, and it has set up a solid 8 month base preparing the stock for a break to a new all-time high. Excellent volume in late February as JAKK surged higher and formed the second leg of its double bottom. It has spent the past 4 weeks moving laterally and lower on very low, declining volume, forming the handle, the point where the impatient ones are weeded out. Volume has started to swell over the past week as JAKK starts to stir to the upside. Looks very good for the breakout soon.
Volume: 460.095K Avg Volume: 675.081K
BUY POINT: $28.95 Volume=981K Target=$34.95 Stop=$26.92
POSITION: UFF FE - June $25c (74 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/jakk.html
Play Date: 03/29/2008
KNDL (Kendle Intl.--$46.02; -0.03; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kndl.html
EARNINGS: Late May
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. Broke higher Wednesday on rising but still below average volume. Held steady Wednesday on very low trade. If it breaks higher from here we will move in. If it tests and then bounces, same deal. Looks very good. To recap: A stock that has some of the best fundamentals growth rates in the market. Solid move in 2007 needed a base to consolidate and build the floor for the next move. This current 12 week pattern is nice, using the 200 day SMA as the support for the two bottoms; that shows plenty of big money support at that key level. Strong volume on the bounce to form the second leg as it rallied back to 45 and the 'hump' in the middle of the pattern. Now it is working laterally after reaching that level, moving over the 90 day SMA. It may take another session or two of lateral movement to complete the handle, but that is fine. When it breaks higher we will be ready to move in.
Volume: 193.901K Avg Volume: 279.35K
BUY POINT: On a move higher on stronger volume or after a test of 45.50 (orig. $45.57) Volume=415K Target=$51.95 Stop=$44.31
POSITION: QNN HI - Aug. $45c (52 delta, no OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/kndl.html
Play Date: 04/01/2008
NUS (Nu Skin--$18.25; -0.14; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nus.html
EARNINGS: Early May
STATUS: Breakout test. Strong volume the past four sessions as NUS tried to put in a bottom at 18, the top of its base. Looks ripe, just waiting for the break higher. To recap: Taking another look at NUS as it has held its test. Blasted higher in mid-March, clearing a 16 week base on strong, strong volume. It tested back to end the month, holding at 18, the top of the base. Volume started to jump on the Friday selling but it held tough and on Tuesday NUS jumped higher on continued strong volume. Part of a larger 17 month cup base. Money flow remains strong, moving higher even as price tests; nice positive divergence. Looking for NUS to make the rebound on continued solid trade and give us the buy point.
Volume: 549.432K Avg Volume: 405.216K
BUY POINT: $18.65 Volume=608K Target=$22.38 Stop=$17.77
POSITION: NUS IW - Sept. $17.50c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nus.html
Play Date: 03/24/2008
YTEC (Yucheng Technologies--$17.46; +0.46; optionable): Chinese intellectual technology solutions for banking industry.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/ytec.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Still an excellent set up for a breakout and run higher, and still waiting for it to show the move. Bounced off the 50 day EMA Monday and moved up Wednesday, but no volume. It is ready, just needs to show the breakaway move. To recap: YTEC treated us rudely last time around but it has set up a new strong base and we are willing to let by-gones be by-gones. Volume was solid the past three sessions, sending YTEC surging higher Monday. It has formed a base on base pattern the past 6 months, holding the 90 day SMA during the March selling. Heading toward a breakout to a new all-time high for this stock that came public in 2005.
Volume: 134.384K Avg Volume: 274K
BUY POINT: $18.24 Volume=325K Target=$21.95 Stop=$16.96
POSITION: TXE GW - July $17.50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ytec.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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