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stock recommendation, stock option
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/05/2008
AMX (America Movil--$65.31; -1.44; optionable): Latin America cellular
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amx.html
EARNINGS: First week of May
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Solid volume Tuesday as AMX broke higher out of its 16 week base. It then worked laterally to end the week, up and down each session, but holding onto the gains as volume dried up. Good price/volume action as it held the gains. May take another session or two to complete the consolidation, and when it breaks back to the upside we are looking to move into positions and catch this nicely formed pattern on a move to a new high.
Volume: 4.708M Avg Volume: 6.997M
BUY POINT: $66.88 Volume=10M Target=$76.95 Stop=$63.91
POSITION: AMX HM - Aug. $65c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/amx.html
Play Date: 04/05/2008
ISYS (Integral Systems--$28.55; -0.23; no options): Business software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/isys.html
EARNINGS: Early May
STATUS: double bottom with handle. Big 18 month base has formed with a strong surge in mid-March on solid volume completing the right side of the base. It then spent the past two weeks moving laterally, dipping intraday on the lows down to 28 and support, then rebounding. Nice tight doji at the 18 day EMA (28.18) on Friday, and that can indicate a rebound is ahead, and that would mean a move toward the breakout. Excellent money flow. Somewhat of a light volume stock, but a great stock with excellent fundamentals growth rates to match the strong pattern.
Volume: 50.73K Avg Volume: 100K
BUY POINT: $29.42 Volume=150K Target=$34.95 Stop=$27.92
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/isys.html
Play Date: 04/05/2008
OTEX (Open Text--$33.99; -0.41; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/otex.html
EARNINGS: First week of May
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. After a strong surge early last week to finish the second leg of a 5 month double bottom OTEX moved laterally to end the week on much lower volume, starting to form the handle to its base. It did this just below the February peak at 35, and that is just where you expect it. Now after another session or two or three it will be ready to make the breakout move. That is when we move in. Very nice pattern and top sales and earnings growth rates.
Volume: 266.979K Avg Volume: 669.405K
BUY POINT: $35.11 Volume=1M Target=$41.95 Stop=$32.65
POSITION: QFT HG - Aug. $35c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/otex.html
Play Date: 04/05/2008
SMH (Semiconductor ETF--$30.44; -0.14; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/smh.html
STATUS: Flat base. After a 3 month flat line between 28 and 30, SMH broke higher last week, finally clearing the 90 day SMA (30) on some very solid volume. Thursday it was very strong even as the market was relatively weak. Friday it paused, tapping the 90 day SMA on the low and rebounding. Good shakeout action. Looking to step in and catch the continued move higher toward next major resistance near 34. Playing options on this one to maximize our leverage on the move.
Volume: 8.145M Avg Volume: 12.265M
BUY POINT: $30.84 Volume=15M Target=$33.95 Stop=$29.91
POSITION: SMH HF - Aug. $30c (60 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/smh.html
Play Date: 04/05/2008
TITN (Titan Machinery--$18.64; +0.32; no options): Ag and construction equipment stores (Case, New Holland, etc.)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/titn.html
EARNINGS: Second week of April
STATUS: Ascending base. TITN is making a higher low at the 50 day EMA (17.33) in its 7 week base. TITN was a new issue in December 2007 and rallied from 8 to 21 before starting the current, and its first, base. A higher low and good money flow. Just looking for a break higher on volume to step into this strong new issue with a great technical pattern and great earnings growth rates.
Volume: 264.695K Avg Volume: 374.826K
BUY POINT: $19.32 Volume=562K Target=$23.32 Stop=$17.97
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/titn.html
Play Date: 04/05/2008
UPL (Ultra Petroleum--$78.97; +3.05; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/upl.html
EARNINGS: 5-6-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Strong volume Thursday and Friday as UPL tested the 50 day EMA (75) and then bouncing hard Friday on even better volume. Nice 6 week base after making a new high in late February has set the foundation for a new move higher. Very nice and a solid fundamentals leader in the sector. Very nice and ready to make the next breakout.
Volume: 2.198M Avg Volume: 1.449M
BUY POINT: $79.55 Volume=1.8M Target=$89.88 Stop=$75.97
POSITION: UPL IP - Sept. $80c (50 delta) or UPL FP - June $80c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/upl.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock option
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