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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS: Heavy on the ag, metals, energy and some Chinese stocks. You got it: outside the US.
Upside:
Play Date: 04/12/2008
BHP (BHP Billiton--$77.05; -0.92; optionable): Industrial metals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bhp.html
EARNINGS: Mid-May
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. BHP broke out from its 12 week base last Tuesday, surging on strong volume. It then spent Wednesday to Friday testing, fading back modestly on very low trade, refusing to give up much ground. Strong runner through October 2007, it needed a base to consolidate and reset for the next run. This has done just that and we are looking for a break higher from this pullback to show us BHP is ready to move higher once more on its next big run.
Volume: 2.112M Avg Volume: 5.02M
BUY POINT: $78.65 Volume=7.5M Target=$93.95 Stop=$76.48
POSITION: BHP HO - Aug. $75c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bhp.html
Play Date: 04/12/2008
CHL (China Mobile--$81.40; -1.46; optionable): Chinese wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chl.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-19-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice lateral move the past week after rallying to end March, forming the right leg and the handle to its 22 week base. Strong volume on the rally higher and nice lower trade on the lateral handle formation. Strong run from August to November needed consolidating, and now this base has set up the next move. Just need to be patient, let it finish the lateral move and then make the breakout on volume.
Volume: 2.636M Avg Volume: 3.242M
BUY POINT: $83.45 Volume=4.5M Target=$97.75 Stop=$79.69
POSITION: CHL FP - June $80c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/chl.html
Play Date: 04/12/2008
MON (Monsanto--$121.12; +0.85; optionable): Ag chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mon.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-2-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Working in a tight lateral range last week, logging a gain Friday even as the market sold off. Good work in the handle of its 13 week base. Classic pattern with the reach lower in March to the 200 day SMA that undercut the January left leg, giving it the good shakeout. Strong volume on the break higher to start the month and that is what you want to see when it makes the break from this pattern.
Volume: 6.105M Avg Volume: 8.319M
BUY POINT: $123.04 Volume=12M Target=$141.75 Stop=$117.32
POSITION: MFP GE - July $125c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mon.html
Play Date: 04/12/2008
MPWR (Monolithic Power Systems--$20.25; -0.64; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mpwr.html
EARNINGS: Early May
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working on a base within a base, the current pattern a 14 week cup with handle pattern that is part of a 28 week base. Nice surge higher to start April, completing the right side of the pattern. Started to top out last week and work laterally. Likely needs a few more days to finish setting up the handle but it showed strong upside volume Thursday, indicating it is getting ready to make the next mover. Thus we want to be ready to move in when it shows that strong volume with a break through the buy point.
Volume: 386.046K Avg Volume: 456.427K
BUY POINT: $21.04 Volume=685K Target=$25.31 Stop=$19.65
POSITION: QPU FD - June $20c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mpwr.html
Play Date: 04/12/2008
PCU (Southern Copper--$114.70; -2.31; optionable): Copper
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcu.html
EARNINGS: Last week of April. Not confirmed
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Similar story for the metals and commodities, i.e. a strong 2007 run peaking in the fourth quarter and falling into a much needed base to build a new foundation for the next strong rally. PCU has put in the time with this 22 week accumulation pattern. It rallied to start the month, putting the finishing touches on its base. Quiet and orderly lateral move this past week has it set up very well for the next break higher. Just want to see the volume jump as it makes the break.
Volume: 1.346M Avg Volume: 2.335M
BUY POINT: $118.55 Volume=3.5M Target=$139.85 Stop=$112.55
POSITION: PCU ID - Sept. $120c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pcu.html
Play Date: 04/12/2008
RIO (Companhia Vale Do Rio Doce--$35.82; -0.28; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rio.html
EARNINGS: Late May
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. RIO faded back on nice low volume last week, holding over near support at the 18 day EMA (35.29) to finish things off. Putting the finishing touches on a nicely formed 5.5 month base needed to consolidate a strong August to October run in 2007. It has done that and is knocking on the door of a breakout and new run once more. Neat patter as the past 7 weeks (the right shoulder) is a small double bottom with handle base. Very nice pattern, very strong stock fundamentally. Looking for some solid volume as it makes the break higher and gives us the buy point.
Volume: 17.105M Avg Volume: 26.653M
BUY POINT: $37.38 Volume=40M Target=$44.95 Stop=$34.98
POSITION: RIO IU - Sept. $37.50c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/rio.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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