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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS: Heavy on the ag, metals, energy and some Chinese stocks. You got it: outside the US.
Upside:
Play Date: 04/12/2008
BHP (BHP Billiton--$77.05; -0.92; optionable): Industrial metals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bhp.html
EARNINGS: Mid-May
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. BHP broke out from its 12 week base last Tuesday, surging on strong volume. It then spent Wednesday to Friday testing, fading back modestly on very low trade, refusing to give up much ground. Strong runner through October 2007, it needed a base to consolidate and reset for the next run. This has done just that and we are looking for a break higher from this pullback to show us BHP is ready to move higher once more on its next big run.
Volume: 2.112M Avg Volume: 5.02M
BUY POINT: $78.65 Volume=7.5M Target=$93.95 Stop=$76.48
POSITION: BHP HO - Aug. $75c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bhp.html
Play Date: 04/12/2008
BIDU (Baidu.com--$284.23; -7.77; optionable): Chinese internet search
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bidu.html
EARNINGS: Mid-May
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice easy and low volume faded last week to test and consolidate the move over the 200 day SMA (278) to start the month. That run higher and this pullback put the finishing touches on BIDU's 14 week base, a double bottom with the right leg undercutting the prior leg on the March selling. Good volume on the rally back up and a nice easy test. Looking for a bounce on some volume to show us that it is ready for us to buy back into and get another run as we had in September and October 2007.
Volume: 4.655M Avg Volume: 8.422M
BUY POINT: $289.55 Volume=10M Target=$339.00 Stop=$277.88
POSITION: BDU FH - June $290c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bidu.html
Play Date: 04/12/2008
CHL (China Mobile--$81.40; -1.46; optionable): Chinese wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chl.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-19-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice lateral move the past week after rallying to end March, forming the right leg and the handle to its 22 week base. Strong volume on the rally higher and nice lower trade on the lateral handle formation. Strong run from August to November needed consolidating, and now this base has set up the next move. Just need to be patient, let it finish the lateral move and then make the breakout on volume.
Volume: 2.636M Avg Volume: 3.242M
BUY POINT: $83.45 Volume=4.5M Target=$97.75 Stop=$79.69
POSITION: CHL FP - June $80c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/chl.html
Play Date: 04/12/2008
FTI (FMC Technologies--$61.81; -1.03; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fti.html
EARNINGS: 4-28-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. FTI didn't sell Friday. No, it just continued its lateral move, forming something of a handle after breaking higher on volume the prior week, clearing some resistance in its 23 week base consolidating that strong 2007 run. Nice low volume as it has worked laterally, setting up well. Looking for some volume on the break higher to move in. Nice set up.
Volume: 1.174M Avg Volume: 2.082M
BUY POINT: $63.95 Volume=3M Target=$73.95 Stop=$60.39
POSITION: FTI GL - July $60c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fti.html
Play Date: 04/12/2008
MON (Monsanto--$121.12; +0.85; optionable): Ag chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mon.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-2-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Working in a tight lateral range last week, logging a gain Friday even as the market sold off. Good work in the handle of its 13 week base. Classic pattern with the reach lower in March to the 200 day SMA that undercut the January left leg, giving it the good shakeout. Strong volume on the break higher to start the month and that is what you want to see when it makes the break from this pattern.
Volume: 6.105M Avg Volume: 8.319M
BUY POINT: $123.04 Volume=12M Target=$141.75 Stop=$117.32
POSITION: MFP GE - July $125c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mon.html
Play Date: 04/12/2008
MPWR (Monolithic Power Systems--$20.25; -0.64; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mpwr.html
EARNINGS: Early May
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working on a base within a base, the current pattern a 14 week cup with handle pattern that is part of a 28 week base. Nice surge higher to start April, completing the right side of the pattern. Started to top out last week and work laterally. Likely needs a few more days to finish setting up the handle but it showed strong upside volume Thursday, indicating it is getting ready to make the next mover. Thus we want to be ready to move in when it shows that strong volume with a break through the buy point.
Volume: 386.046K Avg Volume: 456.427K
BUY POINT: $21.04 Volume=685K Target=$25.31 Stop=$19.65
POSITION: QPU FD - June $20c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mpwr.html
Play Date: 04/12/2008
PCU (Southern Copper--$114.70; -2.31; optionable): Copper
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcu.html
EARNINGS: Last week of April. Not confirmed
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Similar story for the metals and commodities, i.e. a strong 2007 run peaking in the fourth quarter and falling into a much needed base to build a new foundation for the next strong rally. PCU has put in the time with this 22 week accumulation pattern. It rallied to start the month, putting the finishing touches on its base. Quiet and orderly lateral move this past week has it set up very well for the next break higher. Just want to see the volume jump as it makes the break.
Volume: 1.346M Avg Volume: 2.335M
BUY POINT: $118.55 Volume=3.5M Target=$139.85 Stop=$112.55
POSITION: PCU ID - Sept. $120c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pcu.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/09/2008
APC (Anadarko Petroleum--$63.80; -1.34; optionable): Natural gas exploration and production
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apc.html
EARNINGS: 5-6-08
STATUS: Ascending base. Gapped lower Friday but on very low, below average volume and it held the 18 day EMA on the close. Just waiting for it to finish this pullback and make the breakout move from a nicely formed pattern. To recap: Strong volume Wednesday, above average and the strongest in a month as APC took a stab a breaking past the March highs and out of its 14 week base. Natural gas stocks are ready to breakout as natural gas versus the price of oil is underpriced. Ready to make the break and move to a new high after a nice consolidation has set it up for a nice burst higher.
Volume: 2.974M Avg Volume: 5.477M
BUY POINT: $66.45 Volume=7M Target=$76.55 Stop=$63.91
POSITION: APC HM - Aug. $65c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/apc.html
Play Date: 04/09/2008
DO (Diamond Offshore--$124.77; -0.90; optionable): Offshore drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/do.html
EARNINGS: 4-24-08
STATUS: Double bottom. Gapped higher Friday but with the market selling it could not hold the move and posted a modest loss. Still a great set up for the break higher and looking for it this week. To recap: Breaking over the February and March peaks that mark resistance as DO comes off the bottom of the 15 week base the used the 200 day SMA (114) as support. Volume was up Wednesday though it was still above average. Would really like to see the volume jump, but DO has run well and made us a lot of money in the past on low volume moves. Thus . . . we are willing to move in as DO continues higher and drills some more diamonds for us.
Volume: 1.862M Avg Volume: 2.487M
BUY POINT: $126.88 Volume=3.5M Target=$148.95 Stop=$123.48
POSITION: DO FE - June $125c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/do.html
Play Date: 04/10/2008
FSLR (First Solar--$268.30; -2.90; optionable): Solar semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fslr.html
EARNINGS: Mid-May
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still testing, edging back slightly on very low volume, forming the handle as the 10 day EMA (259) rises to meet it. May take a few more sessions to let the 10 day catch up. Whether it waits or not we want to be ready. To recap: Testing back this week, taking a breather from a run higher up the right side of its 15 week base. Nice lower trade as it comes back to test and the 10 day EMA rises to meet it. Would love to see a full test of the 10 day EMA, but it may not give it to us. If it starts higher we will look to move in.
Volume: 3.571M Avg Volume: 6.19M
BUY POINT: $275.31 Volume=9M Target=$309.95 Stop=$264.25
POSITION: HJQ FU - June $280c (48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fslr.html
Play Date: 04/10/2008
ICO (International Coal Group--$6.86; +0.07; optionable): Coal
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ico.html
EARNINGS: Early May
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume remains strong as ICO bumps up against the breakout point from its nicely formed base. Excellent accumulation on going and we anticipate the break higher early this week. To recap: A neat little 10 week base has formed over the 90 day SMA, showing impressive volume the past week as it bumps up at the breakout point. Lots of money being put to work in ICO. Nice base as it sits on tom of the June 2007 peak, a solid support level. Ready to move in as ICO makes the break higher it is ready to make.
Volume: 2.322M Avg Volume: 1.635M
BUY POINT: $6.98 Volume=2.5M Target=$8.95 Stop=$6.49
POSITION: ICO IA - Sept. $5c (80 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ico.html
Play Date: 04/05/2008
OTEX (Open Text--$33.50; -0.13; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/otex.html
EARNINGS: First week of May
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Ignored the Friday selling and instead showed a hammer doji at the 10 day EMA on rising volume. It has put in the time and formed a nice base. Now it is ready to show us the breakout this week. To recap: After a strong surge early last week to finish the second leg of a 5 month double bottom OTEX moved laterally to end the week on much lower volume, starting to form the handle to its base. It did this just below the February peak at 35, and that is just where you expect it. Now after another session or two or three it will be ready to make the breakout move. That is when we move in. Very nice pattern and top sales and earnings growth rates.
Volume: 571.236K Avg Volume: 650.684K
BUY POINT: $35.11 Volume=1M Target=$41.95 Stop=$32.65
POSITION: QFT HG - Aug. $35c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/otex.html
Play Date: 04/09/2008
RIMM (Research in Motion--$115.85; -4.83; optionable): Blackberries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rimm.html
EARNINGS: 6-25-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Could not hang onto the 10 day EMA (117) Friday, instead testing back to the 18 day EMA (115) on the low. Low, below average volume so there was no dumping, just a further test to form the handle. It is ready, just needs to show us the move. To recap: After the nice surge to start the month and the accompanying strong volume, RIMM, just as AAPL, is pulling back to test, coming back on low volume to near support at the 10 day EMA. Volume has faded each session this week in the pullback to form the handle to its 5.5 month base. We already have positions in RIMM and it has already banked us some gain. No issue with focusing assets in strong winners. Ready to make the next move into the RIMM as it rebounds as volume turns back up.
Volume: 19.085M Avg Volume: 24.526M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $117.65; Next: $121.55 Volume=35M Target=$144.95 Stop=$116.45
POSITION: RUL FD - June $120c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rimm.html
Play Date: 04/08/2008
V (Visa, Inc.--$66.11; 0.00; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/v.html
EARNINGS: 4-28-08
STATUS: Ascending base. Held the 10 day EMA (64.91) on the Thursday and Friday lows and then bounced flat Friday after gapping lower on the GE news. Very resilient and looking for the break higher to give us the buy. To recap: A new issue in March, V pulled back and is now starting its next run. MA is a powerhouse in the field and want to spread it out into another stock that is looking very strong with solid upside volume on the upside moves.
Volume: 6.605M Avg Volume: 26.068M
BUY POINT: $66.55 Volume=30M Target=$81.95 Stop=$64.05
POSITION: V FU - June $67.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/v.html
Play Date: 03/24/2008
YTEC (Yucheng Technologies--$16.62; -0.52; optionable): Chinese intellectual technology solutions for banking industry.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/ytec.html
STATUS: Ascending base. Volume perked up Wednesday then faded back to nothing. Still, it shows some continuing accumulation and YTEC remains in an excellent pattern. Getting close and just being patient and waiting for it to come to us. To recap: YTEC has formed a base on base pattern the past 6 months, holding the 90 day SMA during the March selling. Heading toward a breakout to a new all-time high for this stock that came public in 2005.
Volume: 83.121K Avg Volume: 237.629K
BUY POINT: $18.24 Volume=325K Target=$21.95 Stop=$16.96
POSITION: TXE GW - July $17.50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ytec.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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