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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/14/2008
APH (Amphenol Corp.--$41.61; +0.52; optionable): connectors (fiber optic, electrical, electronic, etc.)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aph.html
EARNINGS: Third week of April (not confirmed)
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Not glamorous except in how it continues to rally, form new bases, then rally again. It is currently forming the handle, the final shakeout move, to a 14 week base. Rallied nicely to start the month, peaking out last week and now testing, moving laterally as the 10 day EMA (40.69) catches up to it. Expecting the break higher over the next few sessions. Want to see the volume as it makes the break higher.
Volume: 870.414K Avg Volume: 1.395M
BUY POINT: $42.41 Volume=2M Target=$48.95 Stop=$40.15
POSITION: APH GH - July $40c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/aph.html
Play Date: 04/14/2008
BUCY (Bucyrus International--$111.25; 0.00; optionable): Cranes
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bucy.html
EARNINGS: 4-24-08
STATUS: Ascending base. Something of a reverse head and shoulders but not quite. Still, a nice pattern building toward a breakout to a new all-time high. Bounced off the 50 day EMA (103) to start the month and has spent that past week testing back to the 18 day EMA (107.66), setting up a higher low and the launch pad for a breakout move. Low volume on the pullback and looking for that to reverse as it makes the higher low and breaks to a new high. A strong leader that took about as much pause as it was going to.
Volume: 816.6K Avg Volume: 1.148M
BUY POINT: $113.65 Volume=1.5M Target=$131.95 Stop=$107.48
POSITION: HBU GC - July $115c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bucy.html
Play Date: 04/14/2008
CSIQ (Canadian Solar--$25.64; +1.56; optionable): Solar chips, cells
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/csiq.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-5-08
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. A new issue in late 2006, CSIQ enjoyed its first real run in late 2007 in the solar fun run. It peaked just over 30 and then fell into the current 15 week base to consolidate the gains and set up the next run higher. Very nice base ahs formed, completing the second leg/bottom in early April, then working laterally to form the handle, holding near support at the 10 day EMA (23.82). Bounced Monday on rising volume, and looking for the breakout from CSIQ this week.
Volume: 1.602M Avg Volume: 2.008M
BUY POINT: $26.22 Volume=3M Target=$31.85 Stop=$24.38
POSITION: GQA GE - July $25c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/csiq.html
Play Date: 04/14/2008
CVA (Covanta Holding--$29.80; +0.65; optionable): Waste and energy services in US, Europe and Asia
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cva.html
EARNINGS: 4-23-08
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. CVA was starting the breakout move Monday, rallying on stronger, above average volume. Faded back to close, but still looks very good to make the breakout to a new high. This little 6 week base formed as the last part of a 5 month ascending pattern. Some very good upside volume the past week shows the buyers getting a bit rambunctious, and that indicates a breakout coming. Excellent money flow is leading higher.
Volume: 1.481M Avg Volume: 920.24K
BUY POINT: $30.11 Volume=1M Target=$35.95 Stop=$28.45
POSITION: CVA IF - Sept. $30c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cva.html
Play Date: 04/14/2008
EWW (Mexico Index ETF--$60.12; +0.10; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eww.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Taking a look at an ETF south of the border. EWW broke out to start the month, gapping out of a 5 month reverse head and shoulders base. It has slipped back to the 18 day EMA (59.55) on lower volume, testing that breakout and filling the gap. That leaves it in excellent position to make the next break higher and give us a very nice upside gain.
Volume: 2.273M Avg Volume: 4.67M
BUY POINT: $61.65 Volume=7M Target=$69.45 Stop=$59.31
POSITION: EWW IH - Sept. $60c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/eww.html
Play Date: 04/14/2008
SU (Suncor Energy--$107.19; +2.81; optionable): Tar sands
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/su.html
EARNINGS: 4-24-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Putting the finishing touches on the right shoulder of a 6 month reverse head and shoulders base. The right shoulder is actually a short 6 week double bottom with handle base, and it looks ready to make the breakout from both patterns. Good upside volume the past week as it tested the 10 day EMA (104) and popped. Long run in 2007 and it needed a base to consolidate and set back up. Looks as if this one is doing the trick. Like the volume; want to see it continue as SU makes the break through the buy point.
Volume: 2.317M Avg Volume: 2.776M
BUY POINT: $108.94 Volume=4M Target=$123.95 Stop=$104.88
POSITION: SU IB - Sept. $110c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/su.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/09/2008
APC (Anadarko Petroleum--$65.11; +1.31; optionable): Natural gas exploration and production
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apc.html
EARNINGS: 5-6-08
STATUS: Ascending base. Volume started up as APC moved off the test of near support at the 18 day EMA, heading toward the breakout from its base. Nice higher low, good volume coming in, looking solid. To recap: Strong volume Wednesday, above average and the strongest in a month as APC took a stab a breaking past the March highs and out of its 14 week base. Natural gas stocks are ready to breakout as natural gas versus the price of oil is underpriced. Ready to make the break and move to a new high after a nice consolidation has set it up for a nice burst higher.
Volume: 4.575M Avg Volume: 5.464M
BUY POINT: $66.45 Volume=7M Target=$76.55 Stop=$63.91
POSITION: APC HM - Aug. $65c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/apc.html
Play Date: 04/12/2008
BHP (BHP Billiton--$76.81; -0.24; optionable): Industrial metals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bhp.html
EARNINGS: Mid-May
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Nice test continues, setting up a great buy point. To recap: BHP broke out from its 12 week base last Tuesday, surging on strong volume. It then spent Wednesday to Friday testing, fading back modestly on very low trade, refusing to give up much ground. Strong runner through October 2007, it needed a base to consolidate and reset for the next run. This has done just that and we are looking for a break higher from this pullback to show us BHP is ready to move higher once more on its next big run.
Volume: 1.834M Avg Volume: 4.991M
BUY POINT: $78.65 Volume=7.5M Target=$93.95 Stop=$76.48
POSITION: BHP HO - Aug. $75c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bhp.html
Play Date: 04/12/2008
BIDU (Baidu.com--$289.16; +4.93; optionable): Chinese internet search
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bidu.html
EARNINGS: Mid-May
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice tap a the 200 day SMA and a bounce higher, but no volume on Monday. Still in excellent shape, just want to see a bit more trade. To recap: Nice easy and low volume faded last week to test and consolidate the move over the 200 day SMA (278) to start the month. That run higher and this pullback put the finishing touches on BIDU's 14 week base, a double bottom with the right leg undercutting the prior leg on the March selling. Good volume on the rally back up and a nice easy test. Looking for a bounce on some volume to show us that it is ready for us to buy back into and get another run as we had in September and October 2007.
Volume: 4.128M Avg Volume: 8.418M
BUY POINT: $289.55 Volume=10M Target=$339.00 Stop=$277.88
POSITION: BDU FH - June $290c (54 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bidu.html
Play Date: 04/12/2008
CHL (China Mobile--$80.59; -0.81; optionable): Chinese wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chl.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-19-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A bit further of a test on low volume as CHL sets up well for the breakout, tapping the 10 day EMA on the low and bouncing modestly. Looks really good. To recap: Nice lateral move the past week after rallying to end March, forming the right leg and the handle to its 22 week base. Strong volume on the rally higher and nice lower trade on the lateral handle formation. Strong run from August to November needed consolidating, and now this base has set up the next move. Just need to be patient, let it finish the lateral move and then make the breakout on volume.
Volume: 1.981M Avg Volume: 3.226M
BUY POINT: $83.45 Volume=4.5M Target=$97.75 Stop=$79.69
POSITION: CHL FP - June $80c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/chl.html
Play Date: 04/10/2008
FSLR (First Solar--$274.10; +5.80; optionable): Solar semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fslr.html
EARNINGS: Mid-May
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still moving laterally, still looking solid for the next break higher. Just needs to show it. To recap: Testing back this week, taking a breather from a run higher up the right side of its 15 week base. Nice lower trade as it comes back to test and the 10 day EMA rises to meet it. Would love to see a full test of the 10 day EMA, but it may not give it to us. If it starts higher we will look to move in.
Volume: 4.031M Avg Volume: 6.145M
BUY POINT: $275.31 Volume=9M Target=$309.95 Stop=$264.25
POSITION: HJQ FU - June $280c (48 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fslr.html
Play Date: 04/12/2008
FTI (FMC Technologies--$63.92; +2.11; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fti.html
EARNINGS: 4-28-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Volume was up, and though still below average, FTI is breaking higher and looking strong. As it continues the move and volume continues to improve it is a buy. To recap: FTI didn't sell Friday. No, it just continued its lateral move, forming something of a handle after breaking higher on volume the prior week, clearing some resistance in its 23 week base consolidating that strong 2007 run. Nice low volume as it has worked laterally, setting up well. Looking for some volume on the break higher to move in. Nice set up.
Volume: 1.658M Avg Volume: 2.084M
BUY POINT: $63.95 Volume=3M Target=$73.95 Stop=$60.39
POSITION: FTI GL - July $60c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fti.html
Play Date: 04/12/2008
MON (Monsanto--$123.50; +2.38; optionable): Ag chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mon.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-2-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Gapped higher, rallied, but closed off its high. Volume was up. If it continues higher it is still a buy here. To recap: Working in a tight lateral range last week, logging a gain Friday even as the market sold off. Good work in the handle of its 13 week base. Classic pattern with the reach lower in March to the 200 day SMA that undercut the January left leg, giving it the good shakeout. Strong volume on the break higher to start the month and that is what you want to see when it makes the break from this pattern.
Volume: 6.637M Avg Volume: 8.317M
BUY POINT: On a continued move higher with some more volume (orig. $123.04) Volume=12M Target=$141.75 Stop=$117.32
POSITION: MFP GE - July $125c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mon.html
Play Date: 04/12/2008
MPWR (Monolithic Power Systems--$20.54; 0.00; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mpwr.html
EARNINGS: Early May
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working laterally on low volume, still setting up the handle. Very nice. To recap: Working on a base within a base, the current pattern a 14 week cup with handle pattern that is part of a 28 week base. Nice surge higher to start April, completing the right side of the pattern. Started to top out last week and work laterally. Likely needs a few more days to finish setting up the handle but it showed strong upside volume Thursday, indicating it is getting ready to make the next mover. Thus we want to be ready to move in when it shows that strong volume with a break through the buy point.
Volume: 282.726K Avg Volume: 453.278K
BUY POINT: $21.04 Volume=685K Target=$25.31 Stop=$19.65
POSITION: QPU FD - June $20c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mpwr.html
Play Date: 04/05/2008
OTEX (Open Text--$33.50; 0.00; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/otex.html
EARNINGS: First week of May
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Gapped higher, looking ready to move but volume was not there and it faded back. Still very solid and looks ready to make the move. To recap: After a strong surge early last week to finish the second leg of a 5 month double bottom OTEX moved laterally to end the week on much lower volume, starting to form the handle to its base. It did this just below the February peak at 35, and that is just where you expect it. Now after another session or two or three it will be ready to make the breakout move. That is when we move in. Very nice pattern and top sales and earnings growth rates.
Volume: 473.448K Avg Volume: 643.633K
BUY POINT: $35.11 Volume=1M Target=$41.95 Stop=$32.65
POSITION: QFT HG - Aug. $35c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/otex.html
Play Date: 04/12/2008
PCU (Southern Copper--$114.42; -0.28; optionable): Copper
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcu.html
EARNINGS: Last week of April. Not confirmed
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Still in the nice test, holding the 10 day EMA (114) and holding nicely. Still a great set up, still just waiting for the break higher. To recap: Similar story for the metals and commodities, i.e. a strong 2007 run peaking in the fourth quarter and falling into a much needed base to build a new foundation for the next strong rally. PCU has put in the time with this 22 week accumulation pattern. It rallied to start the month, putting the finishing touches on its base. Quiet and orderly lateral move this past week has it set up very well for the next break higher. Just want to see the volume jump as it makes the break.
Volume: 1.269M Avg Volume: 2.321M
BUY POINT: $118.55 Volume=3.5M Target=$139.85 Stop=$112.55
POSITION: PCU ID - Sept. $120c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pcu.html
Play Date: 04/09/2008
RIMM (Research in Motion--$115.47; -0.38; optionable): Blackberries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rimm.html
EARNINGS: 6-25-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Basically flat on the session, but a nice tight doji on the candlestick pattern suggests the pullback has bottomed here at the 18 day EMA (114.80) and RIMM is ready to try the next breakout move. Cool. To recap: After the nice surge to start the month and the accompanying strong volume, RIMM, just as AAPL, is pulling back to test, coming back on low volume to near support at the 10 day EMA. Volume has faded each session this week in the pullback to form the handle to its 5.5 month base. We already have positions in RIMM and it has already banked us some gain. No issue with focusing assets in strong winners. Ready to make the next move into the RIMM as it rebounds as volume turns back up.
Volume: 15.115M Avg Volume: 24.015M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $117.65; Next: $121.55 Volume=35M Target=$144.95 Stop=$116.45
POSITION: RUL FD - June $120c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rimm.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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