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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/16/2008
BGC (General Cable--$67.20; +2.66; optionable): Cable, wires
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bgc.html
EARNINGS: 4-29-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice break higher as volume moved up to just above average Wednesday as BGC moved over the 200 day SMA (66.65), moving up to the breakout point in its 18 week base. An industrial leader in 2007 that needed a base to consolidate and set up a new foundation for the next run. Looking for some more volume as it makes the break higher.
Volume: 922.79K Avg Volume: 1.011M
BUY POINT: $68.05 Volume=1.5M Target=$79.95 Stop=$64.65
POSITION: BGC HM - Aug. $65c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bgc.html
Play Date: 04/16/2008
BZP (BPZ Resources, Inc.--$20.19; +1.50; optionable): Oil and gas drilling, exploration
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bzp.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. BZP broke out from a 7 week flat base to start February and rallied up the 18 day EMA (19.28). It made three runs up that near support before peaking just over 22 and fading back this month to test the 50 day EMA (18.02). Held there for a week on low volume, then volume started to move higher. Wednesday volume surged to the best showing in a month as BZP jumped higher. Looks ready to resume the uptrend above the near term moving averages and ready to move in as it continues this break higher.
Volume: 1.736M Avg Volume: 1M
BUY POINT: $20.55 Volume=1M Target=$24.95 Stop=$19.11
POSITION: BZP ID - Sept. $20c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bzp.html
Play Date: 04/16/2008
DE (Deere & Co.--$90.18; +3.96; optionable): Farm and construction machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/de.html
EARNINGS: 5-14-08
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. Strong volume surge, the best in three months, as DE starts the breakout from its 15 week base. After a strong 1.5 year run through the end of 2007 it needed a base and this pattern has done just that. Nice volume bump as it finished the right side of the base, volume trailed off in the handle, then coming back strong on the breakout. It has taken its time and we are ready to buy in as it continues the breakout move.
Volume: 10.556M Avg Volume: 5.634M
BUY POINT: $90.65 Volume=5.8M Target=$99.95 Stop=$88.55
POSITION: DE FR - June $90c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/de.html
Play Date: 04/16/2008
PX (Praxair--$90.82; +3.58; optionable): Chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/px.html
EARNINGS: 4-23-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Making the breakout move from its 16 week base that formed using the 200 day SMA (81.55) as support. Nice higher low at the 18 day EMA to form the handle on some low, below average volume, then a volume surge Wednesday as PX starts the breakout move. Nice base to set up the next run that is going to take it to a new all-time high.
Volume: 2.428M Avg Volume: 2.343M
BUY POINT: $91.25 Volume=3M Target=$102.75 Stop=$87.55
POSITION: PX GR - July $90c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/px.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 04/16/2008
CELG (Celgene--$64.78; +1.59; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/celg.html
EARNINGS: 5-8-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume started higher Wednesday as CELG moved up toward the breakout point from its 6 month base. Nice low volume in the handle as it worked laterally this month, setting up the breakout. A long, slow pattern has consolidated the 2005 to 2007 run, and you have to like how CELG has plenty of room ahead of it before it even approaches new high territory. Looking for some better, above average volume on the break higher to move into positions.
Volume: 4.209M Avg Volume: 5.135M
BUY POINT: $65.08 Volume=7M Target=$74.85 Stop=$62.05
POSITION: LQH GM - July $65c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/celg.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/14/2008
APH (Amphenol Corp.--$42.45; +1.37; optionable): connectors (fiber optic, electrical, electronic, etc.)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aph.html
EARNINGS: Third week of April (not confirmed)
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Solid volume Wednesday, a second day of above average trade. Very solid and still a buy as it continues the breakout move. To recap: Not glamorous except in how it continues to rally, form new bases, then rally again. It is currently forming the handle, the final shakeout move, to a 14 week base. Rallied nicely to start the month, peaking out last week and now testing, moving laterally as the 10 day EMA (40.69) catches up to it. Expecting the break higher over the next few sessions. Want to see the volume as it makes the break higher.
Volume: 1.721M Avg Volume: 1.393M
BUY POINT: $42.41 Volume=2M Target=$48.95 Stop=$40.15
POSITION: APH GH - July $40c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/aph.html
Play Date: 04/14/2008
CVA (Covanta Holding--$29.83; -0.11; optionable): Waste and energy services in US, Europe and Asia
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cva.html
EARNINGS: 4-23-08
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. Gapped higher Wednesday and looked ready to move, but it faded to close flat. Solid trade. Looking for a continued move higher that holds. To recap: CVA was starting the breakout move Monday, rallying on stronger, above average volume. Faded back to close, but still looks very good to make the breakout to a new high. This little 6 week base formed as the last part of a 5 month ascending pattern. Some very good upside volume the past week shows the buyers getting a bit rambunctious, and that indicates a breakout coming. Excellent money flow is leading higher.
Volume: 1.112M Avg Volume: 913.398K
BUY POINT: $30.11 Volume=1M Target=$35.95 Stop=$28.45
POSITION: CVA IF - Sept. $30c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cva.html
Play Date: 04/14/2008
EWW (Mexico Index ETF--$61.50; +1.21; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eww.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice shot of volume as EWW gapped higher and closed at the session high, moving right up to the buy. Looks solid and ready to move in as it contiues. To recap: Taking a look at an ETF south of the border. EWW broke out to start the month, gapping out of a 5 month reverse head and shoulders base. It has slipped back to the 18 day EMA (59.55) on lower volume, testing that breakout and filling the gap. That leaves it in excellent position to make the next break higher and give us a very nice upside gain.
Volume: 4.103M Avg Volume: 4.651M
BUY POINT: $61.65 Volume=7M Target=$69.45 Stop=$59.31
POSITION: EWW IH - Sept. $60c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/eww.html
Play Date: 04/12/2008
MPWR (Monolithic Power Systems--$21.50; +0.94; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mpwr.html
EARNINGS: Early May
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volume was up and so was MPWR, breaking over the handle in its cup. Needs a bit more trade, but another good session on volume and it is a buy. To recap: Working on a base within a base, the current pattern a 14 week cup with handle pattern that is part of a 28 week base. Nice surge higher to start April, completing the right side of the pattern. Started to top out last week and work laterally. Likely needs a few more days to finish setting up the handle but it showed strong upside volume Thursday, indicating it is getting ready to make the next mover. Thus we want to be ready to move in when it shows that strong volume with a break through the buy point.
Volume: 514.704K Avg Volume: 452.971K
BUY POINT: New: On a continued move higher on more trade (orig. $21.04) Volume=685K Target=$25.31 Stop=$19.65
POSITION: QPU FD - June $20c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mpwr.html
Play Date: 04/15/2008
SLB (Schlumberger--$94.80; +3.67; optionable): Oil and gas services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slb.html
EARNINGS: 4-18-08 before the open
STATUS: Earnings are on Friday morning. SLB broke higher Wednesday on rising but still below average volume. Still in the buy zone with plenty of room upside to run. Looking to take some positions as it continues this move and then look at it some before the close Thursday. Aggressive but like the recovery and set up. To recap: SLB has set up once more just before its earnings, showing a tight lateral move this month just below the 200 day SMA (92.53). Low volume this week as it slides laterally above the 10 day EMA and below the 200 day. Some good upside above average volume last week and a low volume test back. Still in good position to make us some money when it shows us the break over that 200 day SMA on some solid volume.
Volume: 9.445M Avg Volume: 11.699M
BUY POINT: On a continued move higher (orig. $92.78) Volume=15M Target=$105.88 Stop=$89.91
POSITION: SLB HR - Aug. $90c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/slb.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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