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trend trading stock, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/19/2008
AMT (American Tower--$40.99; +1.14; optionable): Cell towers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amt.html
EARNINGS: 5-2-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Big winner for us in 2005 and 2006, AMT topped out last summer, failed a breakout from its first base, and then slipped into the current 4.5 month pattern. Needed plenty of consolidation after that long run, and this double base is doing that. Making higher lows the past two months, the last at the 50 day MA, forming the bottom of the handle to the base. It has bumped up against the 200 day SMA (40.92) in February and again in late March and early April. Volume jumped above average Friday as AMT buzzed the 200 day again, closing just over that level. Looking for a continued move through this resistance to give us the buy point and a run to those prior highs.
Volume: 5.045M Avg Volume: 4.143M
BUY POINT: $41.38 Volume=6M Target=$47.75 Stop=$39.55
POSITION: AMT GH - July $40c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/amt.html
Play Date: 04/19/2008
AMZN (Amazon.com--$80.10; +6.06; optionable): Online shopping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amzn.html
EARNINGS: 4-23-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders breakout. AMZN made us some solid scratch in its 2007 surge. Capped out in Q4 2007, formed a reverse head and shoulders, but it didn't take. Fell into the current 15 week pattern, a cup with a reverse head and shoulders base at the bottom. It gapped higher Friday on the zoom higher by the large cap techs. Rammed into the 200 day SMA (80.73) and moved through it but gave it up on the close. Looking for it to move through that level to buy into it. Then we will add to the position on a successful test of the 200 day as well. Why do we buy on the first move through? Because it may not come back for a full test. Looks as if one of the tech leaders is ready to ride again and plenty of upside to make us great money before AMZN hits the old highs.
Volume: 16.792M Avg Volume: 10.523M
BUY POINT: $80.88 Volume=12M Target=$94.95 Stop=$77.22
POSITION: ZQN GP - July $80c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/amzn.html
Play Date: 04/19/2008
BRCM (Broadcom--$23.07; +1.42; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcm.html
EARNINGS: 4-22-08
STATUS: Trend reversal. BRCM broke its 5 month downtrend below the 10 and 18 day EMA in late March. It has melted higher since, then moved laterally all April along the 50 day EMA (20.50) in a narrow trading range. Friday it broke higher, gapping through the 90 day SMA (21.84) on rising, above average volume. Ready to move in as BRCM continues higher. Yes earnings are next Tuesday after the close, but we like how stocks are responding, and the INTC results bode well for BRCM.
Volume: 15.764M Avg Volume: 15.114M
BUY POINT: $23.44 Volume=20M Target=$27.95 Stop=$21.80
POSITION: RCQ HX - Aug. $22.50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/brcm.html
Play Date: 04/19/2008
DNR (Denbury Resources--$32.16; +0.66; optionable): Independent oil and gas exploration
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dnr.html
EARNINGS: 5-1-08
STATUS: Ascending triangle. DNR is pinching off at the top part of its 4 month base, making a higher low at the 50 day EMA the past two weeks and bouncing higher this week with the market. It bumped the early January, February and March highs, and closed the week there. Looking for a high volume breakout over that resistance to move into positions as DNR breaks out to a new all-time high and a new run.
Volume: 1.482M Avg Volume: 2.271M
BUY POINT: $32.65 Volume=3.4M Target=$38.95 Stop=$30.55
POSITION: DNR IF - Aug. $30c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dnr.html
Play Date: 04/19/2008
NGS (Natural Gas Services--$28.81; +1.71; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ngs.html
EARNINGS: Third week of May
STATUS: Test breakout. Making the second test of the early April breakout form its 5 week double bottom base. Nice volume on the upside moves, surging Monday then spending the week moving sideways to consolidate and let the 10 day EMA (26.64) catch up with it. Friday it jumped higher when it did. Strong trade and ready to move in as it continues the move higher.
Volume: 449.396K Avg Volume: 149.711K
BUY POINT: $29.05 Volume=250K Target=$34.95 Stop=$27.02
POSITION: NGE GE - July $25c (83 delta, 75 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ngs.html
Play Date: 04/19/2008
RDC (Rowan Co.--$42.48; +1.07; optionable): Oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rdc.html
EARNINGS: 5-1-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Strong volume as RDC broke higher to start April, completing the right side of its 9 month base. Then volume faded the past two weeks as it came back to form the handle, tapping the 50 day EMA on the Thursday low on a gap before bouncing back. Strong volume that session and then again on Friday as RDC continued the recovery. Looking for some continuing trade as it continues higher and shows us the breakout move to a new all-time high. Interesting pattern; it is the last stage of a 10 year ascending triangle, and the breakout could start a multiyear run.
Volume: 3.712M Avg Volume: 3.213M
BUY POINT: $43.11 Volume=3.8M Target=$50.95 Stop=$40.92
POSITION: RDC GV - July $42.50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rdc.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 04/19/2008
PCLN (Priceline.com--$129.43; +9.47; optionable): Online hotel, car rental, travel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcln.html
EARNINGS: Mid-May
STATUS: Ascending base. Coming back to life in a big way Friday, gapping higher off the 50 day EMA (118.73) on the first above average volume in a month. It has formed a base on base pattern the past 5 months with a double bottom that broke higher in February only to segue into the current base. This one can rip off the yardage when it gets going. The Friday move was strong and it looks as if this is a good entry point to add to positions.
Volume: 2.251M Avg Volume: 1.726M
BUY POINT: $130.31 Volume=1.8M Target=$154.95 Stop=$126.31
POSITION: PUZ GW - July $130c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pcln.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/16/2008
BZP (BPZ Resources, Inc.--$19.27; +0.26; optionable): Oil and gas drilling, exploration
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bzp.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Nice tight doji at the 18 day EMA on Friday on low volume as BZP continued to test its bounce off the 50 day EMA. Just waiting for it to make its break higher again. To recap: BZP broke out from a 7 week flat base to start February and rallied up the 18 day EMA (19.28). It made three runs up that near support before peaking just over 22 and fading back this month to test the 50 day EMA (18.02). Held there for a week on low volume, then volume started to move higher. Wednesday volume surged to the best showing in a month as BZP jumped higher. Looks ready to resume the uptrend above the near term moving averages and ready to move in as it continues this break higher.
Volume: 639.645K Avg Volume: 1M
BUY POINT: $20.55 Volume=1M Target=$24.95 Stop=$19.11
POSITION: BZP ID - Sept. $20c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bzp.html
Play Date: 04/14/2008
CVA (Covanta Holding--$29.96; +0.24; optionable): Waste and energy services in US, Europe and Asia
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cva.html
EARNINGS: 4-23-08
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. Gapped higher Friday but could not hold the move. Still right at the breakout point and ready to make the move for us. To recap: CVA was starting the breakout move Monday, rallying on stronger, above average volume. Faded back to close, but still looks very good to make the breakout to a new high. This little 6 week base formed as the last part of a 5 month ascending pattern. Some very good upside volume the past week shows the buyers getting a bit rambunctious, and that indicates a breakout coming. Excellent money flow is leading higher.
Volume: 936.175K Avg Volume: 919.229K
BUY POINT: $30.11 Volume=1M Target=$35.95 Stop=$28.45
POSITION: CVA IF - Sept. $30c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cva.html
Play Date: 04/14/2008
EWW (Mexico Index ETF--$61.31; +0.26; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eww.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Gapped higher on strong volume but closed flat. Still looks solid and just waiting for the break higher that sticks. To recap: Taking a look at an ETF south of the border. EWW broke out to start the month, gapping out of a 5 month reverse head and shoulders base. It has slipped back to the 18 day EMA (59.55) on lower volume, testing that breakout and filling the gap. That leaves it in excellent position to make the next break higher and give us a very nice upside gain.
Volume: 6.547M Avg Volume: 4.582M
BUY POINT: $61.65 Volume=7M Target=$69.45 Stop=$59.31
POSITION: EWW IH - Sept. $60c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/eww.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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