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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/21/2008
BG (Bunge Ltd.--$119.00; +1.86; optionable): Agribusiness, Fertilizer, Food products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bg.html
EARNINGS: 4-24-08 before the open
STATUS: Test breakout. BG surged higher last Wednesday on strong volume, clearing a range of resistance from 110 to 115. Strong volume on that move and then a nice lateral move on lower trade, holding above that consolidation range, tapping it on the session lows and rebounding. Earnings are just ahead (Thursday morning), but we like the pattern a lot as BG comes back from the March selling that made the bottom of the base, a base that was needed after the strong 2007 move. Looking to move in as it continues higher after this lateral consolidation of the strong move higher.
Volume: 2.623M Avg Volume: 2.746M
BUY POINT: $120.57 Volume=3.5M Target=$134.95 Stop=$115.11
POSITION: BG GD - July $120c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bg.html
Play Date: 04/21/2008
CLB (Core Labs--$137.41; -1.56; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clb.html
EARNINGS: 4-23-08 after the close
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Forming the handle to a 6 month base, moving laterally as the 10 day EMA (134.85) rises to meet it. It formed a reverse head and shoulders at the bottom of the base, something you see often in an up and down bottoming process in the market. Strong shot of upside volume Friday; may have been expiration related, but want to be ready to move in as CLB breaks higher because we view those volume spikes in a consolidation as a 'get ready' spike. So, we are ready, just waiting for the break higher.
Volume: 138.007K Avg Volume: 253.176K
BUY POINT: $139.11 Volume=350K Target=$159.95 Stop=$135.77
POSITION: CLB IG - Sept. $135c (62 delta, 233 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/clb.html
Play Date: 04/21/2008
GLW (Corning--$25.73; +0.03; optionable): Glass products include flat screen monitors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/glw.html
EARNINGS: 4-29-08
STATUS: Cup. Working on a 10 month base and forming something of a handle the past two weeks, testing lower last week and rebounding, making a higher low. In very good position, and in the right sector of the consumer market regardless of a recession as consumers still want their flat screens.
Volume: 9.095M Avg Volume: 13.92M
BUY POINT: $26.22 Volume=20M Target=$30.21 Stop=$25.18
POSITION: GLW HE - Aug. $25c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/glw.html
Play Date: 04/21/2008
GNK (Genco Shipping & Trading--$66.26; -0.03; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gnk.html
EARNINGS: 5-1-08
STATUS: Test breakout. GNK broke out from a 5.5 month reverse head and shoulders base last Wednesday, breaking past the late February and early March peak on a shot of very strong, above average volume. One of the strong running shipping stocks from mid-2006 through Q3 2007, GNK needed a base to consolidate the run and set the foundation for the next one. Nicely done. Working laterally Monday after a Friday bounce higher. Looking to move in as GNK makes its next break higher.
Volume: 676.746K Avg Volume: 986.113K
BUY POINT: $67.42 Volume=1M Target=$77.75 Stop=$64.77
POSITION: GNK GM - July $65c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gnk.html
Play Date: 04/21/2008
ICE (Intercontinental Exchange--$159.55; +2.88; optionable): Energy exchange
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ice.html
EARNINGS: 5-2-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice above average volume surge Thursday as ICE broke higher from a three week handle. Nicely formed 4 month base set up the move, and after the break ICE held its gains on lower trade Friday and Monday. Like what we are seeing with this one, and on the next break higher we will be ready to move in as it continues its breakout move.
Volume: 1.348M Avg Volume: 2.36M
BUY POINT: $160.45 Volume=3M Target=$184.95 Stop=$155.88
POSITION: IHH FL - June $160c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ice.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 04/21/2008
ME (Mariner Energy--$29.55; -0.18; optionable): Oil and gas drilling, exploration
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/me.html
EARNINGS: 5-6-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice surge last week and one-half off of near support at the 18 day EMA. After that move it is testing back on lower volume, showing a tight doji ME above the 10 day EMA (28.93). May slide back a bit more to test the 10 day, but a nice test and we are looking at adding positions as it makes the break higher from this pullback to near support.
Volume: 755.201K Avg Volume: 1.015M
BUY POINT: $29.88 Volume=1.2M Target=$33.95 Stop=$29.82
POSITION: ME HF - Aug. $30c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/me.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/19/2008
AMT (American Tower--$41.74; +0.75; optionable): Cell towers
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amt.html
EARNINGS: 5-2-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Rallied through the 200 day SMA (40.91) Monday, but volume was a laggard, clocking in well below average. That kept us from moving in, but if AMT continues on with some better trade we will at least take some positions in this nice pattern. To recap: Big winner for us in 2005 and 2006, AMT topped out last summer, failed a breakout from its first base, and then slipped into the current 4.5 month pattern. Needed plenty of consolidation after that long run, and this double base is doing that. Making higher lows the past two months, the last at the 50 day MA, forming the bottom of the handle to the base. It has bumped up against the 200 day SMA (40.92) in February and again in late March and early April. Volume jumped above average Friday as AMT buzzed the 200 day again, closing just over that level. Looking for a continued move through this resistance to give us the buy point and a run to those prior highs.
Volume: 2.185M Avg Volume: 4.143M
BUY POINT: On a continued move from here (orig. $41.38) Volume=6M Target=$47.75 Stop=$39.55
POSITION: AMT GH - July $40c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/amt.html
Play Date: 04/19/2008
DNR (Denbury Resources--$33.29; +1.13; optionable): Independent oil and gas exploration
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dnr.html
EARNINGS: 5-1-08
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Breaking higher over the base peaks but volume is not coming with it. Trade was up, coming in a bit below average. If it can pick up some more volume as it continues we will look at moving in. To recap: DNR is pinching off at the top part of its 4 month base, making a higher low at the 50 day EMA the past two weeks and bouncing higher this week with the market. It bumped the early January, February and March highs, and closed the week there. Looking for a high volume breakout over that resistance to move into positions as DNR breaks out to a new all-time high and a new run.
Volume: 2.05M Avg Volume: 2.271M
BUY POINT: New: On another upside volume session (orig. $32.65) Volume=3.4M Target=$38.95 Stop=$30.55
POSITION: DNR IF - Aug. $30c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dnr.html
Play Date: 04/14/2008
EWW (Mexico Index ETF--$61.40; +0.09; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eww.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Still holding over the 10 day EMA (60.85) on low volume, still in good shape to make the next break higher. Just being patient to let it show us the move. To recap: Taking a look at an ETF south of the border. EWW broke out to start the month, gapping out of a 5 month reverse head and shoulders base. It has slipped back to the 18 day EMA (59.55) on lower volume, testing that breakout and filling the gap. That leaves it in excellent position to make the next break higher and give us a very nice upside gain.
Volume: 2.49M Avg Volume: 4.58M
BUY POINT: $61.65 Volume=7M Target=$69.45 Stop=$59.31
POSITION: EWW IH - Sept. $60c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/eww.html
Play Date: 04/19/2008
PCLN (Priceline.com--$129.63; +0.20; optionable): Online hotel, car rental, travel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcln.html
EARNINGS: Mid-May
STATUS: Ascending base. Probed the breakout point but no volume was there as on Friday to keep the move going. Still held up quite nicely and in very good shape to continue a strong move higher. To recap: Coming back to life in a big way Friday, gapping higher off the 50 day EMA (118.73) on the first above average volume in a month. It has formed a base on base pattern the past 5 months with a double bottom that broke higher in February only to segue into the current base. This one can rip off the yardage when it gets going. The Friday move was strong and it looks as if this is a good entry point to add to positions.
Volume: 1.257M Avg Volume: 1.702M
BUY POINT: $130.31 Volume=1.8M Target=$154.95 Stop=$126.31
POSITION: PUZ GW - July $130c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pcln.html
Play Date: 04/19/2008
RDC (Rowan Co.--$42.34; -0.14; optionable): Oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rdc.html
EARNINGS: 5-1-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. After two strong sessions of above average volume, trade faded well below average Monday as RDC tested the 10 day EMA on the low and rebounded to flat. Just waiting for the strong break higher that sticks so we can move in. To recap: Strong volume as RDC broke higher to start April, completing the right side of its 9 month base. Then volume faded the past two weeks as it came back to form the handle, tapping the 50 day EMA on the Thursday low on a gap before bouncing back. Strong volume that session and then again on Friday as RDC continued the recovery. Looking for some continuing trade as it continues higher and shows us the breakout move to a new all-time high. Interesting pattern; it is the last stage of a 10 year ascending triangle, and the breakout could start a multiyear run.
Volume: 1.981M Avg Volume: 3.213M
BUY POINT: $43.11 Volume=3.8M Target=$50.95 Stop=$40.92
POSITION: RDC GV - July $42.50c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rdc.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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