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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/23/2008
JOYG (Joy Global--$75.11; +1.42; optionable): Down on the farm machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/joyg.html
EARNINGS: 5-29-08
STATUS: Test breakout. JOYG broke from a 3.5 month ascending base just over a week back, surging on some solid volume. Has faded back to the 10 day EMA (73) this week, tapping and holding the 10 day EMA on the Tuesday low. Ready to break to a new all-time high and after this test it will be ready to make the break and plow some new ground.
Volume: 1.34M Avg Volume: 2.298M
BUY POINT: $75.65 Volume=2.8M Target=$89.95 Stop=$72.91
POSITION: JQY GO - July $75c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/joyg.html
Play Date: 04/23/2008
MEA (Metalico, Inc.--$13.89; +0.30; no options): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mea.html
EARNINGS: 4-24-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Surged higher last week, breaking out of a 6 month double bottom base on a strong volume jump. After that blast higher it has worked laterally the past four sessions on lower volume. Wednesday volume jumped back above average, indicating that MEA is ready to make the next break higher and continue the breakout move that has MEA, a new issue in mid-2005, at a new high.
Volume: 492.434K Avg Volume: 303.6K
BUY POINT: $14.26 Volume=455K Target=$17.15 Stop=$13.26
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mea.html
Play Date: 04/23/2008
MPWR (Monolithic Power Systems--$20.98; +0.01; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mpwr.html
EARNINGS: 4-29-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Taking another run at MPWR as it holds in the handle to its 4 month base that is part of a larger 7 month pattern. Nice low volume as it works laterally along the 10 day EMA (20.80) pacing itself and measuring for a new breakout.
Volume: 215.091K Avg Volume: 437.388K
BUY POINT: $21.91 Volume=685K Target=$25.95 Stop=$20.55
POSITION: QPU FD - June $20c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mpwr.html
Play Date: 04/23/2008
NUVA (Nuvasive--$39.94; +3.59; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nuva.html
EARNINGS: 4-22-08
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. Strong volume Wednesday as NUVA surged on its earnings report, clearing the down trendline from November. After a strong 2007 run NUVA needed a break to set the new foundation for the next run higher, and looks as if it has done that given the volume and the price move. Looking to move in as NUVA continues to invade higher and then will look to add as it makes the next test.
Volume: 2.193M Avg Volume: 591.398K
BUY POINT: $40.22 Volume=600K Target=$46.25 Stop=$37.55
POSITION: QNU IH - Sept. $40c (54, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nuva.html
Play Date: 04/23/2008
YUM (Yum! Brands--$40.30; +1.81; optionable): KFC and company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/y/yum.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-22-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Surging on strong volume after a solid earnings report with strong growth in China, Europe, and elsewhere. The move is breaking it out of a 6 month base, and YUM is ready to make us some more tasty earnings as it did at the start of Q4 2007. Very nice.
Volume: 6.41M Avg Volume: 4.37M
BUY POINT: $40.48 Volume=4.5M Target=$46.75 Stop=$38.32
POSITION: YUM GH - July $40c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/yum.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/21/2008
BG (Bunge Ltd.--$119.69; +1.51; optionable): Agribusiness, Fertilizer, Food products
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bg.html
EARNINGS: 4-24-08 before the open
STATUS: Test breakout. One of the Ag stocks that did not sell off Wednesday, likely because it already did its selling in March. It moved laterally on rising, average volume ahead of its earnings on Thursday morning. Looking for a solid break higher to give us the entry after earnings. To recap: BG surged higher last Wednesday on strong volume, clearing a range of resistance from 110 to 115. Strong volume on that move and then a nice lateral move on lower trade, holding above that consolidation range, tapping it on the session lows and rebounding. Earnings are just ahead (Thursday morning), but we like the pattern a lot as BG comes back from the March selling that made the bottom of the base, a base that was needed after the strong 2007 move. Looking to move in as it continues higher after this lateral consolidation of the strong move higher.
Volume: 3.007M Avg Volume: 2.743M
BUY POINT: $120.57 Volume=3.5M Target=$134.95 Stop=$115.11
POSITION: BG GD - July $120c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bg.html
Play Date: 04/19/2008
DNR (Denbury Resources--$32.24; -0.99; optionable): Independent oil and gas exploration
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dnr.html
EARNINGS: 5-1-08
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Tested lower Wednesday on lower, below average volume following the high volume attempt at a breakout on Tuesday. Solid pattern, and looking for a bounce higher on volume to give us the buy point. To recap: DNR is pinching off at the top part of its 4 month base, making a higher low at the 50 day EMA the past two weeks and bouncing higher this week with the market. It bumped the early January, February and March highs, and closed the week there. Looking for a high volume breakout over that resistance to move into positions as DNR breaks out to a new all-time high and a new run.
Volume: 2.118M Avg Volume: 2.264M
BUY POINT: $32.65 Volume=3.4M Target=$38.95 Stop=$30.55
POSITION: DNR IF - Aug. $30c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dnr.html
Play Date: 04/14/2008
EWW (Mexico Index ETF--$61.41; -0.36; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eww.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Working laterally over the 10 day EMA (61) and below 62, trying to get the gumption to wake up from the siesta and make the breakout from a solid pattern. Like the volume spike last week and just being patient. To recap: Taking a look at an ETF south of the border. EWW broke out to start the month, gapping out of a 5 month reverse head and shoulders base. It has slipped back to the 18 day EMA (59.55) on lower volume, testing that breakout and filling the gap. That leaves it in excellent position to make the next break higher and give us a very nice upside gain.
Volume: 3.166M Avg Volume: 4.492M
BUY POINT: $61.65 Volume=7M Target=$69.45 Stop=$59.31
POSITION: EWW IH - Sept. $60c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/eww.html
Play Date: 04/21/2008
ME (Mariner Energy--$28.68; -0.52; optionable): Oil and gas drilling, exploration
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/me.html
EARNINGS: 5-6-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Testing back further in the energy weakness, but volume remaining low and well below average. Held the 18 day EMA (28.50) on the low and still a very nice test of near support. Just looking for the rebound on volume to move in. To recap: Nice surge last week and one-half off of near support at the 18 day EMA. After that move it is testing back on lower volume, showing a tight doji ME above the 10 day EMA (28.93). May slide back a bit more to test the 10 day, but a nice test and we are looking at adding positions as it makes the break higher from this pullback to near support.
Volume: 828.237K Avg Volume: 1.009M
BUY POINT: $29.58 Volume=1.2M Target=$33.95 Stop=$28.32
POSITION: ME HF - Aug. $30c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/me.html
Play Date: 04/19/2008
PCLN (Priceline.com--$125.79; -0.05; optionable): Online hotel, car rental, travel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcln.html
EARNINGS: Mid-May
STATUS: Ascending base. Didn't continue last Fridays surge higher, instead testing back to the 10 day EMA (124.76) on lower, below average volume. Very low trade Wednesday as it showed a doji in a very narrow range at the 10 day EMA. The spring is wound and PCLN is ready to make the next big break higher. Kind of exciting. Want to call the price negotiator. To recap: Coming back to life in a big way Friday, gapping higher off the 50 day EMA (118.73) on the first above average volume in a month. It has formed a base on base pattern the past 5 months with a double bottom that broke higher in February only to segue into the current base. This one can rip off the yardage when it gets going. The Friday move was strong and it looks as if this is a good entry point to add to positions.
Volume: 527.534K Avg Volume: 1.653M
BUY POINT: $130.31 Volume=1.8M Target=$154.95 Stop=$126.31
POSITION: PUZ GW - July $130c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pcln.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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