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stock recommendation, stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Plays:
Play Date: 04/26/2008
BHI (Baker Hughes--$81.88; +1.43; optionable): Oil and gas equipment/service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bhi.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-24-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Announced earnings last week and was up and down on the news, but held its gains, working laterally in a week long consolidation over the 200 day SMA (79.30). This follows a solid surge in April and BHI needed a breather and this lateral move is consolidating the gains and setting up the next break higher. Plenty of upside here back up to 100 and want to capture that move after this consolidation.
Volume: 3.018M Avg Volume: 5.074M
BUY POINT: $83.77 Volume=6.5M Target=$99.95 Stop=$79.21
POSITION: BHI GP - July $80c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bhi.html
Play Date: 04/26/2008
DRYS (Dryships--$83.98; +2.27; optionable): Bulk shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drys.html
EARNINGS: Mid-May
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. Good surge last week to start things off, making it up to the February peak at 88 that marks the 'hump' in the 7 month base. It is sliding laterally on lighter trade, holding the gains and setting up the next break higher. Very strong volume as it surged higher, and after this lateral move it will be ready to make a key breakout and give us the buy point. Plenty of room to the upside to run, and we are seeing plenty of transportation stocks breaking higher out of strong bases.
Volume: 3.651M Avg Volume: 4.124M
BUY POINT: $85.31 Volume=6M Target=$104.95 Stop=$81.65
POSITION: DRQ IQ - Sept. $85c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/drys.html
Play Date: 04/26/2008
ITU (Banco Itau--$26.26; +0.26; optionable): Bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itu.html
EARNINGS: Mid-May
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice handle formed last week with a modest fade back to the 10 day EMA (25.83), holding that on the lows and setting up the next break higher. That move will break ITU out from its 5 month base. Strong move two weeks back took ITU up just below the hump in the base at 27 and this current move is the handle, setting up the breakout. Very nice pattern ready to try the breakout and give us the buy point as it does. Another financial that has set up an impressive pattern even amid the financial turmoil.
Volume: 3.913M Avg Volume: 6.202M
BUY POINT: $27.11 Volume=9M Target=$32.55 Stop=$25.44
POSITION: ITU IE - Sept. $25c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/itu.html
Play Date: 04/26/2008
NOV (National Oilwell--$73.19; +0.28; optionable): Oil service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nov.html
EARNINGS: 4-30-08 before the open
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. You could call this a handle or the first test of the breakout; take your pick because either way it looks quite tasty. NOV formed a 4 month double bottom that began to start the year. Broke over the February high (the hump) the second week of April and rallied to 75ish. It spent last week testing that strong volume move. Tapped the 18 day EMA on the Thursday low and rebounded sharply to close above the 10 day EMA (72.24). Friday it measured the breakout, fading back from the high. May take a couple more sessions to get right, but it is setting up nicely. NOV was a huge mover for us in 2007, and after that run it needed a base to work off the excess and set the foundation for the next move. Just about done with that.
Volume: 4.176M Avg Volume: 5.995M
BUY POINT: $76.11 Volume=7M Target=$91.45 Stop=$72.11
POSITION: NOV HO - Aug. $75c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nov.html
Play Date: 04/26/2008
TITN (Titan Machinery--$20.14; -0.44; optionable): Agricultural and construction equipment stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/titn.html
EARNINGS: 4-28-08 after the close
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. TITN was a new issue in December. We caught it in April as it broke higher off the 50 day EMA (19.35) and out of a 6 week base. Nice gains and after that it fell back with the machinery stocks last week, falling in sympathy. Friday TITN tapped the 50 day on the low and rebounded to cut the losses. Earnings are Monday after the close, but the test back to key support ahead of the results is setting it up nicely for a run higher. Looking to pick it off Monday as it bounces. An aggressive play but we like the positioning and the company's strength in its fundamentals.
Volume: 874.827K Avg Volume: 434.333K
BUY POINT: $21.22 Volume=700K Target=$25.75 Stop=$19.73
POSITION: QTD ID - Sept. $20c (54 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/titn.html
New buy point on a current position:
Play Date: 04/26/2008
IBM (International Business Machines--$123.08; -1.11; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ibm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-16-08
STATUS: Flying plateau. IBM was one of the earnings announcements that turned the tide against the mediocrity that started the earnings season. It reported and surged the next session, jumping out of a 6.5 month double bottom with handle base. After that surge it started laterally, moving in a tight range lat week as it waited for the 10 day EMA (122) to rise and catch up with it. Friday it reached down to the 10 day just to feel for it and bounced back up. Low volume on the lateral move; no one is selling. Once the short term profit takers are out of the way IBM will make its next break higher. Very strong.
Volume: 6.317M Avg Volume: 8.745M
BUY POINT: $125.21 Volume=9M Target=$139.95 Stop=$121.77
POSITION: IBM GE - July $125c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ibm.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock pick
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