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stock recommendation, stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/26/2008
BHI (Baker Hughes--$81.88; +1.43; optionable): Oil and gas equipment/service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bhi.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-24-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Announced earnings last week and was up and down on the news, but held its gains, working laterally in a week long consolidation over the 200 day SMA (79.30). This follows a solid surge in April and BHI needed a breather and this lateral move is consolidating the gains and setting up the next break higher. Plenty of upside here back up to 100 and want to capture that move after this consolidation.
Volume: 3.018M Avg Volume: 5.074M
BUY POINT: $83.77 Volume=6.5M Target=$99.95 Stop=$79.21
POSITION: BHI GP - July $80c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bhi.html
Play Date: 04/26/2008
DRYS (Dryships--$83.98; +2.27; optionable): Bulk shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drys.html
EARNINGS: Mid-May
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. Good surge last week to start things off, making it up to the February peak at 88 that marks the 'hump' in the 7 month base. It is sliding laterally on lighter trade, holding the gains and setting up the next break higher. Very strong volume as it surged higher, and after this lateral move it will be ready to make a key breakout and give us the buy point. Plenty of room to the upside to run, and we are seeing plenty of transportation stocks breaking higher out of strong bases.
Volume: 3.651M Avg Volume: 4.124M
BUY POINT: $85.31 Volume=6M Target=$104.95 Stop=$81.65
POSITION: DRQ IQ - Sept. $85c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/drys.html
Play Date: 04/26/2008
ITU (Banco Itau--$26.26; +0.26; optionable): Bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itu.html
EARNINGS: Mid-May
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice handle formed last week with a modest fade back to the 10 day EMA (25.83), holding that on the lows and setting up the next break higher. That move will break ITU out from its 5 month base. Strong move two weeks back took ITU up just below the hump in the base at 27 and this current move is the handle, setting up the breakout. Very nice pattern ready to try the breakout and give us the buy point as it does. Another financial that has set up an impressive pattern even amid the financial turmoil.
Volume: 3.913M Avg Volume: 6.202M
BUY POINT: $27.11 Volume=9M Target=$32.55 Stop=$25.44
POSITION: ITU IE - Sept. $25c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/itu.html
Play Date: 04/26/2008
NOV (National Oilwell--$73.19; +0.28; optionable): Oil service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nov.html
EARNINGS: 4-30-08 before the open
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. You could call this a handle or the first test of the breakout; take your pick because either way it looks quite tasty. NOV formed a 4 month double bottom that began to start the year. Broke over the February high (the hump) the second week of April and rallied to 75ish. It spent last week testing that strong volume move. Tapped the 18 day EMA on the Thursday low and rebounded sharply to close above the 10 day EMA (72.24). Friday it measured the breakout, fading back from the high. May take a couple more sessions to get right, but it is setting up nicely. NOV was a huge mover for us in 2007, and after that run it needed a base to work off the excess and set the foundation for the next move. Just about done with that.
Volume: 4.176M Avg Volume: 5.995M
BUY POINT: $76.11 Volume=7M Target=$91.45 Stop=$72.11
POSITION: NOV HO - Aug. $75c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nov.html
Play Date: 04/26/2008
TITN (Titan Machinery--$20.14; -0.44; optionable): Agricultural and construction equipment stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/titn.html
EARNINGS: 4-28-08 after the close
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. TITN was a new issue in December. In April it broke higher off the 50 day EMA (19.35) and out of its first base, a 6 week jobber. Nice gains and after that it fell back with the machinery stocks last week, falling in sympathy. Friday TITN tapped the 50 day on the low and rebounded to cut the losses. Earnings are Monday after the close, but the test back to key support ahead of the results is setting it up nicely for a run higher. Looking to pick it off Monday as it bounces. An aggressive play but we like the positioning and the company's strength in its fundamentals.
Volume: 874.827K Avg Volume: 434.333K
BUY POINT: $21.22 Volume=700K Target=$25.75 Stop=$19.73
POSITION: QTD ID - Sept. $20c (54 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/titn.html
New buy point on a current position:
Play Date: 04/26/2008
IBM (International Business Machines--$123.08; -1.11; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ibm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-16-08
STATUS: Flying plateau. IBM was one of the earnings announcements that turned the tide against the mediocrity that started the earnings season. It reported and surged the next session, jumping out of a 6.5 month double bottom with handle base. After that surge it started laterally, moving in a tight range lat week as it waited for the 10 day EMA (122) to rise and catch up with it. Friday it reached down to the 10 day just to feel for it and bounced back up. Low volume on the lateral move; no one is selling. Once the short term profit takers are out of the way IBM will make its next break higher. Very strong.
Volume: 6.317M Avg Volume: 8.745M
BUY POINT: $125.21 Volume=9M Target=$139.95 Stop=$121.77
POSITION: IBM GE - July $125c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ibm.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/24/2008
CAT (Caterpillar--$82.25; +0.43; optionable): Heavy machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cat.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-18
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped modestly higher Friday on low volume, starting the move off the test but wanting a bit more volume. Will likely get it this week. To recap: Gapped higher on earnings and has come back this week to fill the gap, fading back on low volume, tapping the 10 day EMA on the Thursday low and then rebounding to close flat. Nice breakout from a 7 month reverse head and shoulders base, and a great test. Showed a doji on the session, and that indicates the pullback is over. Ready to move in as CAT rebounds once more.
Volume: 4.089M Avg Volume: 7.169M
BUY POINT: $82.57 Volume=7.5M Target=$94.95 Stop=$79.77
POSITION: CAT HP - Aug. $80c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cat.html
Play Date: 04/24/2008
ICE (Intercontinental Exchange--$160.54; +2.52; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ice.html
EARNINGS: 5-2-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Up Friday, but up and down getting there and low, below average volume to boot. Looking for a bit more warmth from ICE on the move and then we move in. To recap: Okay, looking at ICE again as it comes right back into play, bouncing off the 90 day SMA on Thursday. It has formed a 4 month base, breaking higher last week on some solid trade, but then dumping lower Tuesday on the CME earnings. It held support and has bounced. Still a good pattern and ready to move in as it breaks out. It can fly and there is plenty of room overhead to run.
Volume: 1.52M Avg Volume: 2.295M
BUY POINT: New: On a bit hotter volume (orig. $160.45) Volume=3M Target=$184.95 Stop=$155.88
POSITION: IHH FL - June $160c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ice.html
Play Date: 04/23/2008
JOYG (Joy Global--$75.69; +2.29; optionable): Down on the farm machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/joyg.html
EARNINGS: 5-29-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Another reach to the 18 day EMA on the low and a rebound nicely positive. Volume remained below average, but JOYG is ready. A bit more volume on a break higher and some will feel the joy. To recap: JOYG broke from a 3.5 month ascending base just over a week back, surging on some solid volume. Has faded back to the 10 day EMA (73) this week, tapping and holding the 10 day EMA on the Tuesday low. Ready to break to a new all-time high and after this test it will be ready to make the break and plow some new ground.
Volume: 1.988M Avg Volume: 2.269M
BUY POINT: $75.65 Volume=2.8M Target=$89.95 Stop=$72.91
POSITION: JQY GO - July $75c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/joyg.html
Play Date: 04/23/2008
MEA (Metalico, Inc.--$13.45; -0.03; no options): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mea.html
EARNINGS: 4-24-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Tapped the 10 day EMA on the Friday low and rebounded to flat. Held the October and February peaks on the low and a quick rebound. That indicates strong support. Just waiting for the breakout. To recap: Surged higher last week, breaking out of a 6 month double bottom base on a strong volume jump. After that blast higher it has worked laterally the past four sessions on lower volume. Wednesday volume jumped back above average, indicating that MEA is ready to make the next break higher and continue the breakout move that has MEA, a new issue in mid-2005, at a new high.
Volume: 573.006K Avg Volume: 330.266K
BUY POINT: $14.26 Volume=455K Target=$17.15 Stop=$13.26
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mea.html
Play Date: 04/19/2008
PCLN (Priceline.com--$128.38; +3.35; optionable): Online hotel, car rental, travel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcln.html
EARNINGS: Mid-May
STATUS: Ascending base. Still setting up for the breakout, bouncing off the 18 day EMA Friday as it puts in a higher low in its base, pricing in a move. Strong volume a week back, and looking to duplicate that as PCLN makes the next break higher. To recap: Coming back to life in a big way Friday, gapping higher off the 50 day EMA (118.73) on the first above average volume in a month. It has formed a base on base pattern the past 5 months with a double bottom that broke higher in February only to segue into the current base. This one can rip off the yardage when it gets going. The Friday move was strong and it looks as if this is a good entry point to add to positions.
Volume: 567.673K Avg Volume: 1.56M
BUY POINT: $130.31 Volume=1.8M Target=$154.95 Stop=$126.31
POSITION: PUZ GW - July $130c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pcln.html
Play Date: 04/24/2008
SLB (Schlumberger--$102.74; +0.80; optionable): Oilfield services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slb.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-18-08
STATUS: Nice tap at the 10 day EMA (100.21) on the Friday low, then rebounding for a modest gain showing a tight doji on the candlestick chart. Liked it so much we took some positions, but also looking for more as it makes the break higher. To recap: Surged higher last week on its earnings report, clearing the early January peak on solid trade. It has come back to test the past three sessions, tapping at the 10 day EMA on the Thursday low and starting to rebound. Nice test of the breakout, holding near support. Looking to move into new positions as SLB completes this pullback and starts higher on some rising, above average volume.
Volume: 6.958M Avg Volume: 10.312M
BUY POINT: On a continued move higher, this time with some volume (orig. $102.57) Volume=13M Target=$117.95 Stop=$99.32
POSITION: SDB HT - Aug. $100c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/slb.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock pick
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