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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/28/2008
ACL (Alcon, Inc.--$159.40; +5.91; optionable): Medical instruments, supplies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acl.html
EARNINGS: Announce 4-23-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle breakout. Strong volume Monday as ACL gave us a delayed reaction to its earnings report last week. Broke out from a 6 month base, moving to a new all-time high. Plenty of strength as it makes the move. May be a bit softer to start after such a strong move to start the week; a bit of pullback makes it all the better, but if it continues higher we will be glad to take part of the position and then pick up some more on the first test.
Volume: 808.19K Avg Volume: 457.953K
BUY POINT: $159.78 Volume=625K Target=$179.95 Stop=$154.94
POSITION: ACL HL - Aug. $160c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/acl.html
Play Date: 04/28/2008
BBD (Banco Bradesco--$21.85; -0.29; optionable): Foreign regional bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbd.html
EARNINGS: 4-29-08
STATUS: Ascending base. Bumping at the breakout from its 20 week pattern, starting higher Monday on rising, average volume. It could not hold the move in the afternoon softness, fading back to flat. Still poised to make the break and just waiting for some more solid trade and another break higher. Very solid fundamentals growth rates to go along with the great pattern.
Volume: 8.866M Avg Volume: 9.786M
BUY POINT: $22.39 Volume=14M Target=$26.95 Stop=$21.32
POSITION: BBD ID - Sept. $20c (65 delta, 87 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bbd.html
Play Date: 04/28/2008
EXM (Excel Maritime Carriers--$43.10; -1.71; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/exm.html
EARNINGS: 3-17-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Moving laterally the past four sessions after breaking over the 200 day SMA (42.17) last Tuesday. Strong volume on the move higher off the bottom of its 6.5 month base and now a nice low volume move to consolidate, shakeout the short term players, and set the stage for the next run higher. Love the pattern and love the sector and how it has been performing. Great set up to make us money.
Volume: 1.316M Avg Volume: 1.138M
BUY POINT: $45.65 Volume=1.7M Target=$54.95 Stop=$42.45
POSITION: EXM II - Sept. $45c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/exm.html
Play Date: 04/28/2008
GTLS (Chart Industries--$41.05; +1.55; optionable): Metal fabrication
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gtls.html
EARNINGS: 5-1-08
STATUS: Flying plateau. GTLS is making the second test of the early April breakout from a classic 5 month double bottom with handle where the second bottom in January undercut the first. Big breakout in late February, and now another classic pattern, the run up the short term moving average (this time the 18 day EMA at 38.76), rallying on strong volume on the upside moves. Did it again Monday, jumping off the 10 day EMA after a test of the 18 day on Thursday, volume surging above average as it made the move. Great action with money flow surging higher ahead of price, leading the way. Looking to step in as GTLS continues the move.
Volume: 717.584K Avg Volume: 411.681K
BUY POINT: $41.39 Volume=600K Target=$47.95 Stop=$38.69
POSITION: QYK IH - Sept. $40c (57 delta, 74 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gtls.html
Play Date: 04/28/2008
TEX (Terex--$72.54; +2.33; optionable): Heavy machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tex.html
EARNINGS: 4-23-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Announced earnings last week and gapped higher Thursday, but could not hold the move. After a modest delay, volume bounced higher Monday, moving up to average as TEX bounced off the 200 day SMA (70.53). Clearing the February highs and now ready to make a run toward the October high at 90. That is quite a run, but it is set up well with this base to do just that.
Volume: 2.243M Avg Volume: 2.211M
BUY POINT: $73.11 Volume=3M Target=$88.45 Stop=$70.22
POSITION: TEX GN - July $70c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/tex.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 04/26/2008
BHI (Baker Hughes--$81.69; -0.19; optionable): Oil and gas equipment/service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bhi.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-24-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working laterally on low volume, still forming the handle and setting up for the breakout. Just being patient. To recap: Announced earnings last week and was up and down on the news, but held its gains, working laterally in a week long consolidation over the 200 day SMA (79.30). This follows a solid surge in April and BHI needed a breather and this lateral move is consolidating the gains and setting up the next break higher. Plenty of upside here back up to 100 and want to capture that move after this consolidation.
Volume: 2.503M Avg Volume: 5.042M
BUY POINT: $83.77 Volume=6.5M Target=$99.95 Stop=$79.21
POSITION: BHI GP - July $80c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bhi.html
Play Date: 04/24/2008
CAT (Caterpillar--$83.03; +0.78; optionable): Heavy machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cat.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-18
STATUS: Breakout test. Moving higher but no volume yet. If it can pick up some trade it is a buy. To recap: To recap: Gapped higher on earnings and has come back this week to fill the gap, fading back on low volume, tapping the 10 day EMA on the Thursday low and then rebounding to close flat. Nice breakout from a 7 month reverse head and shoulders base, and a great test. Showed a doji on the session, and that indicates the pullback is over. Ready to move in as CAT rebounds once more.
Volume: 4.684M Avg Volume: 7.097M
BUY POINT: Continued move on some volume (orig. $82.57) Volume=7.5M Target=$94.95 Stop=$79.77
POSITION: CAT HP - Aug. $80c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cat.html
Play Date: 04/26/2008
ITU (Banco Itau--$26.57; +0.31; optionable): Bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itu.html
EARNINGS: Mid-May
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Gapped higher but on no volume. Still a sweet pattern and still just waiting for the break higher. Kind of the story for Monday. To recap: Nice handle formed last week with a modest fade back to the 10 day EMA (25.83), holding that on the lows and setting up the next break higher. That move will break ITU out from its 5 month base. Strong move two weeks back took ITU up just below the hump in the base at 27 and this current move is the handle, setting up the breakout. Very nice pattern ready to try the breakout and give us the buy point as it does. Another financial that has set up an impressive pattern even amid the financial turmoil.
Volume: 3.842M Avg Volume: 6.186M
BUY POINT: $27.11 Volume=9M Target=$32.55 Stop=$25.44
POSITION: ITU IE - Sept. $25c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/itu.html
Play Date: 04/23/2008
MEA (Metalico, Inc.--$13.55; +0.10; no options): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mea.html
EARNINGS: 4-24-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice doji Monday on rising, above average volume as MEA builds for the breakout. Like this volume and ready to move in as it makes the break. To recap: Surged higher last week, breaking out of a 6 month double bottom base on a strong volume jump. After that blast higher it has worked laterally the past four sessions on lower volume. Wednesday volume jumped back above average, indicating that MEA is ready to make the next break higher and continue the breakout move that has MEA, a new issue in mid-2005, at a new high.
Volume: 639.072K Avg Volume: 336.719K
BUY POINT: $14.26 Volume=455K Target=$17.15 Stop=$13.26
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mea.html
Play Date: 04/26/2008
TITN (Titan Machinery--$22.00; +1.86; optionable): Agricultural and construction equipment stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/titn.html
EARNINGS: 4-28-08 after the close
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Strong volume, solid bounce off the 50 day EMA test (19.45). TITN looks ready for a great move and it is still a buy on this bounce. To recap: TITN was a new issue in December. In April it broke higher off the 50 day EMA (19.35) and out of its first base, a 6 week jobber. Nice gains and after that it fell back with the machinery stocks last week, falling in sympathy. Friday TITN tapped the 50 day on the low and rebounded to cut the losses. Earnings are Monday after the close, but the test back to key support ahead of the results is setting it up nicely for a run higher. Looking to pick it off Monday as it bounces. An aggressive play but we like the positioning and the company's strength in its fundamentals.
Volume: 1.016M Avg Volume: 448.764K
BUY POINT: On a continued move higher (orig. $21.22) Volume=700K Target=$25.75 Stop=$19.73
POSITION: QTD ID - Sept. $20c (54 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/titn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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