stock watch, stock split

Begin part 3 of 3

RUS (Russ Berrie--$31.60; -0.05; no options): Toys and games. Looking at a date in mid-April, and we are working to narrow that down.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rus.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split in 1993 at a stock price of $35. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Again gapped up slightly, but could not make a break, instead testing the 18 day MVA (66.47) at its low before recovering to close. The candlestick is nearly identical to Thursday's, although volume was up some more at 27,200 (average 24,800). Still a good pattern, a lateral consolidation that started as a pennant but which has shown a wider range of late. Looking for the breakout, but RUS could again test back to the 18 day before we get a definitive run from the pattern. RUS broke out of a 2-month cup with handle in November and has moved more or less laterally up the 50 day MVA since then. It hit a high of 31.85 while moving in the present consolidation (high of 31.78 Friday). Target: 36.
BUY POINT: 31.95 on volume of 34,000. Stop: 30.25.
POSITOIN: Stock only.

CYN (City National--$51.53; -0.28; optionable): Regional bank. Forecast to announce a split with earnings 4-16-02 before the open.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cyn.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it appears that CYN split its stock in 1990 in the $40 range. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
STATUS: Has tried to breakout, but has not generated the necessary volume. However, it is holding in a lateral move right at its former highs and over the short-term MVA's (10 & 18 day at 51.27 and 50.87, respectively). If it can hold that support it will continue its pattern of making higher lows, and we can still look at it for a breakout; however, it will have to show us the volume. The present pattern formed after CYN moved out of its 5-month cup pattern in January. Target: 60.
BUY POINT: 52.45 on volume of 280,000 (Friday 203,600; average 207,000). Stop: 48.78 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or May $50 calls to buy (CYN EJ).

MUR ($87.10; -2.45): Forecast to announce a split 4-24-02 after the close, with earnings.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mur.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that MUR has ever split its stock. Authorized shares were increased at the last shareholder meeting.
STATUS: Abruptly turned back after breaking to a new high Thursday. We were looking for more strength on the breakout move, although volume was decent, but the selling on Friday got the volume that we lacked on the move up (377,600; average 252,500). Not good action on a breakout, so MUR could use more time to set up then the short consolidation we saw the past week (formed after breaking from its rolling range). The drop Friday took the stock back to the highs in the short consolidation (below the prior high from May, at 87.85), but still over recent support of the 10 day MVA, at 86.23. We are still looking for a run to 100, but the selling needs to settle down, and we want MUR to hold 86 (although it could test its 18 day MVA, at 84.75).
BUY POINT: Riding current positions, but carefully watching volume on the selling and support at the 10 & 18 day MVA. It will need to set up again for new positions.

PRE-SPLITS BEST PLAYS: NJR made a nice move going into the split, and we will see if it can continue strength post-split.
Remember, we try to grab these as they break out of good patterns or as they start a run right before the split. Not looking for home runs, but looking for those $3 to $4 moves running into the split, watching for topping signs and potential resistance. Not huge money, but it can be very steady. We set our initial stops at the 7-8% range below the purchase price (or just below obvious support), and move them up on a move to preserve our profits.
1) DF - Cup with handle
2) ICUI - A new play on the 50 day MVA!
3) WRI - Another new play!

DF (Dean Foods--$72.05; -0.30; optionable): Splits 2:1 effective 4-25-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/df.html
STATUS: DF is moving in a handle to its cup pattern, which dates back to late December (high of 72.47). DF took out that high in recent sessions (73.40 Monday), but volume has been low and the stock has needed to rest after having made a nice run up from the bottom of the base (64, then the 50 day MVA). Friday DF dipped back a bit to show its third consecutive doji, holding over its 10 day MVA (71.52). Volume continued to be very low at 200,500 (average 559,400). Looking for a breakout. Target still 80.
PLAY: For new positions, a breakout: 73.50 on volume of 840,000, with stock and/or June $70 calls to buy (DF FN). Stop: 69.

ICUI (Icu Medical--$50.50; 0.00; no options): Splits 3:2 effective 3-18-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/icui.html
STATUS: Has retreated back to the 50 day MVA (49.21, with January highs), and that level has provided consistent support as the stock has trended up. Looking for a hold at this level and a bounce and run going into the split. The short-term MVA's are ahead at 51.84, and the high (February) is 55.95. That is the target.
PLAY: Over 51.90, with stock. Stop: 49.

WRI (Weingarten Realty--$50.87; -0.04; no options): Splits 3:2 effective 4-16-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wri.html
STATUS: WRI formed a saucer from early November, and last week tested its 50 day MVA (49.65) and made a strong bounce up to a new high of 51.65. It has dipped back but is holding the 10 day MVA (50.61), which is with its former saucer highs. WRI tapped that support Friday before pulling up to close with a doji. Looking for the stock to hold here and make another move.
PLAY: Over 51.20 on increased volume (94,300 Friday; average 80,000), with stock. Stop: 50.

CONTINUING CANDIDATES BEST PLAYS:
1) THQI - Announced the split and still looking good!
2) RARE - Broke out, but still needs volume

THQI (THQ Inc.--$52.03; +1.02; optionable): Software. Got the split announcement! Splits 3:2 effective 4-10-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/thqi.html
STATUS: Looking good on the test of the 200 day MVA. THQI has made strong move the last two weeks, pulling out of the doldrums that accompanied a steady drop from 65 to 40 over three months. Monday it closed back over its 200 day MVA (50.25), and showed good volume on a move up from there the next session. It is holding on a test of support, showing a doji Friday after reaching up to 52.90 intraday, not getting the volume we wanted for positions. Volume was up at 1.39 million (average 1.45 million). Set up nicely for pre-split moves. Target: 60.
BUY POINT: From here: Over 53 on increased volume. Stop: 49.38. Over the high: 53.60 on increased volume. Stop: 49.85.
POSITION: Stock and/or June $50 calls to buy (QHI FJ).

RARE (Rare Hospitality--$27.42; +0.61; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rare.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 7-26-00 in conjunction with earnings. The stock price was 29.50. The annual shareholder meeting was on 5-14-01 at which time authorized shares were increased. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Made the breakout from the cup with handle, but again the volume was not what we were looking for (290,900; average 263,000). RARE had been tightening up between the handle high (27.05, although there was an intraday spike to 27.50) and the 18 day MVA (26.45). Needs volume on a continued move. Target: 32.
BUY POINT: Still a buy up 28.40, but we need volume of 400,000. Stop: 26-26.41.
POSITION: Stock and/or May $25 calls to buy (QRH EE - low open interest).

POST SPLITS BEST PLAYS:
1) BSG - Testing the recent pattern highs
2) ACS - Cup with handle

BSG (formerly BSYS; Bisys Group--$32.69; +0.09; optionable): Split 2:1 on 2-25-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bsg.html
STATUS: BSG is holding onto the 10 day MVA (32.50), showing a doji Friday over that level. It dropped back through the recent pattern highs Thursday, offering a bit of concern although volume on the selling has been low (up on the doji Friday to 583,800; average 560,000). Still a possible good play if it can hold this level; the last dip before the breakout held the 18 day MVA (32.16), and we will look for a strong move back up and continued trend using the short-term MVA's as support.
PLAY: If it can hold, we can look at positions on a move over 33.20 on above average volume, with stock and/or June $30 calls to buy (BSG FF).

ACS (Affiliated Computer--$52.24; +1.34): Split 2:1 on 2-25-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acs.html
STATUS: ACS surged back in late February-early March, forming a cup and is now forming a handle. It is wedging a bit, which is not the best pattern for a handle, but volume is settling down a bit. ACS tested its 10 day MVA (50.23) Thursday at its low, bouncing back a bit Friday on reduced volume of 1.32 million (average 790,000). An interesting pattern that could yield a good breakout. It might need to set up a bit more, settling down from the wedging, but we will look at it from here. Target on a breakout: 60 (left-side high 54.78).
PLAY: 52.85 on minimum volume of 1.2 million, with stock and/or July $50 calls to buy (ACS GJ). Stop: 50.

WATCHLISTS:

PRE-ANNOUNCEMENTS WATCHLIST: AROW, BMS, BRL, CTAS, DRI, EXPD, GTK, MRBK, PDCO and STU.

ACDO ($48.93; -4.57): Researching a new date. Got hit on news involving the approval of a drug competitive with on ACDO distributes. Never hit the buy point in what was a solid pattern, and we will see if the stock can regroup.

SUI ($39.95; 0.00): Forecast to announce a split with a board meeting on 4-01-02. Another doji Friday as SUI rests after its solid breakout move of earlier in the week. Looking for SUI to continue toward the target of 44; if we get a pullback off of these dojis we are looking for it to hold 39.50, and look at additional positions on a move over 40, with stock.

RNR ($105.50; -2.75): Forecast to announce a split on 4-22-02 earnings (tentative date). Continued back on low volume, closing below the 18 day MVA (105.36). No longer in the ascending wedge, and it needs to hold here at some former highs lest it succumb to what could be a double top. 50 day below at 100.90.

AHC ($74.30; +0.30): Forecast to announce a split with earnings on April 24 (tentative date). Drifting up on lighter volume, which typically can spell a test back, with the support on this move at the 10 day MVA (71.61). We will look for it to set up again from that level.

CTAS ($48.80; +1.47): Researching a split date. Erratic now, as after its big retreat Thursday it gapped up for a doji Friday. We will need to see it settle down; support below is at the 50 day MVA (47.36).

DRS ($40.00; -0.70): DRS pulled back again, but we are looking for it to hold its 18 day MVA (39.71), making a higher low and continuing what is shaping up as a large ascending wedge.

XL ($93.70; -0.80): Working on an announcement date, but are looking at a board meeting the first week in April. Erratic since its strong breakout in mid-February, and it continues to drift lower toward the 50 day MVA (92.02). Friday XL recovered from a low of 92.64 as volume fell. We will see if it holds the 50 day and sets up another bounce.

SLM ($92.84; -1.31): Researching a new date, and looking at a board meeting that our research shows will be in early April. Dropped back to the support of its 18 day MVA (92.63), recovering from a low of 91.64 as it moved on strong volume (1.08 million; average 763,000). Looking for another bounce as SLM continues up after its late-January breakout from a saucer with handle, so we will see if it can hold the 18 day and move. Target still 105. The aggressive can play a bounce over 94 on continued strong volume, with July $90 calls to buy (SLM GR).

PRE SPLITS WATCHLIST:

CUB ($62.60; +0.46): Announced a 3:1 split, subject to shareholder approval, date TBA. Has shown very nice pre-split move, and now could be starting another consolidation that could take it to an intersection with the 10 day MVA (currently 59.45, with the upper channel trendline). We will look for that to set up for new positions.

WERN ($27.39; +0.38): Splits 4:3 on March 15. Watching carefully here, as WERN made a bit move back up on Monday (over the 50 day MVA, at 65.29), but since then has been drifting up on decreasing volume. Typically volume is not as much of a concern with the volatile pre-splits, but the action puts us on notice. Splits next Friday.

JEC ($69.68; -2.07): Splits 2:1 on April 2. JEC made a nice move off of its 200 day MVA (49.28), but Friday abruptly gapped upand reversed. Quite a drop, and after such a move we typically can see more selling, so we will watch for that move with existing positions. Potential support is below at recent tops at 69, with the 10 & 18 day MVA's at 68.24 and 66.89.

SMD ($23.05; +0.10): Splits 3:2 effective 3-16-02. Dipped back through the support of the short-term MVA's (23.32) this week, now showing four consecutive dojis between them and the 50 day (21.98). The aggressive can look at a move over 24, with stock. Recent consolidation high is 24.70.

PMI ($74.61; +1.06): Announced a 2:1 stock split, effective date to be determined. Managed to hold up after Thursday's gap up and reversal, climbing back a bit on higher volume. Still looks like it needs time to consolidate or test lower before we get another attempt at a move. The 18 day MVA is recent support at 72.

WLP ($120.59; +3.09): Announced a 2:1 split, effective March 18. Has taken a relief bounce after the drop, although Friday's substantial move continued to be on weakening volume (483,700; average 556,000). Closed just over the 10 day MVA (120.27), but faces the 50 day and 18 day, together at 121.79. Looking for a drop back from there with any remaining positions, with the recent low at 115.15.

DHI ($41.90; -0.20): Announced a 3:2 stock split, effective 4-10-02. Gave us a nice move into its announcement, and now looks due for a dip back to the short-term MVA's (10 & 18 day at 40.62 and 39.39), where we could see it again consolidate laterally, as it has done prior to its last two moves. However, homebuilding is one sector we are watching closely, ready to take profits if we get a drop that takes out support.

CONTINUING CANDIDATES WATCHLIST: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date. These include APPB, BBBY, DIAN, EDS, GNSS, GOSHA, HB, IGT, JCI, LLL, MI, RYL, STJ, TGH, TGIC, THC and YUM.

AZO ($64.52; -1.01): Gapped over the 50 day MVA (66.13), but retreated back down, although on lower volume (1 million; average 1.27 million). We will see if we get more downward momentum, at least garnering a better exit point.

BBY ($75.40; +2.41): Great move the last two sessions on good sales and improved outlook. It gapped up again Friday, with volume down but still above average (3.5 million; average 3 million). Right up against its high (77.20), so we will look for BBY to slow down here, perhaps pulling back a bit to set up the next run.

DHR ($71.71; +0.86): Moved up again Friday as it trends up its short-term MVA's (10 & 18 day at 69.55 and 68.05), continuing up from its February breakout. We are keeping a close eye on these construction stocks (also RYL, DHI), as the sector could be one that gets hit in the near future. Bringing up stops and looking to take profits on a drop through support.

ETH ($40.00; -0.52): ETH made a nice run up from one of its long-term up trendlines (36), which was at the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern. The recent run hit 42.15, but has pulled back the last few sessions, Friday on much bigger volume (356,100; average 203,400), holding the 10 day MVA (40.03). We will see if it can hold here, at the former 'shoulder' highs.

FLIR ($56.25; +0.31): Tapped all the way down to tap its 18 day MVA at its low of 52.80 Friday, but pulled back up to close with a doji over the 10 day (55.32). Volume was up and strong at 560,700 (average 393,000), and we could get another bounce from here for the aggressive, pointing to a target of 61. It would be the fourth bounce up the 18 day MVA since breaking out, however, so that is most likely the last move up before a test back down to the 50 day MVA to regroup. July $50 calls to buy (FFQ GJ).

INVN ($43.19; -0.31): INVN is inching up toward its recent high (47.09), but it looks like it needs to test back a bit after having moved up late this week on decreasing volume. If it holds the short-term MVA's at 40 it will make another higher low, and will look good for a breakout.

PII ($64.51; -0.23): Great breakout move this week! It hit as high at 65.60 on Thursday, resting Friday with a doji on lower volume. Targeting 69 on a continued move, but we could see some profit-taking after such a move, but we will look for PII to hold at 62 and set up another surge.

POST SPLITS WATCHLIST: Watching BLL, CHS, HTLD, NJR and VAR.

CHBS ($30.20; +2.11): Has really rebounded with strength, Friday running through its 50 day MVA (29.15) with good volume (825,000; average 117,500). Put plays are gone now, and CHBS closed just over price resistance from December and February levels. We will see if it comes back to test the former resistance, and if it can hold the 30 level or 50 day with lower volume, we can flip to the upside on the next strong move.

GILD ($36.12; +0.26): Split 2:1 effective March 8. Traded in a wide range on its split date, from a low of 35.07 to a high of 37.10. Still not a bad pattern if it can hold here (over the left side highs in a jagged cup, and the 10 day MVA, at 35.68). Looking for it to settle down a bit, but the aggressive can look at a move over 37 with volume of 3 million or better, with stock and/or May $35 calls to buy (GDQ EG - no open interest as yet).

MGAM ($30.70; -0.42): Split 3:2 on February 12. Bouncing around a bit but holding support at the 18 day MVA (29.43), which is in the range of prior pattern highs. It tried the move over 32 Friday but did not have the volume (239,600; were looking for 400,000). Will see if it can settle a bit.

SONC ($28.00; -0.25): Watching carefully here, as restaurants could be one of those sectors that takes it on the chin as there is rotation in the rally. The 10 & 18 day MVA's are at 27.58 and 26.96.

XRAY ($33.65; +0.13): Split 3:2 effective February 1. Still struggling with its highs (recent high 34.36; all-time at 34.79), but for the moment holding the 18 day MVA (29.43; 50 day at 26.78). We will see if it holds for another bounce that can attack the high.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

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