|
|
yahoo stock, trade stock
Begin Part 2 of 2
Dow/NYSE
Make it five sessions of head banging at 10,600. Raced over that level but could not take out the intraday high of the summer 2001 consolidation. Without volume it was pushed back down. Still moving laterally as volume slacks off; that is just what we want to see on a consolidation in this tight range of 10,400 to 10,600.
Stats: +47.12 (+0.4%) to close at 10,572.49.
NYSE Volume: 1.421 billion (-6.9%). Volume did not rally with the index, and the lack of volume did not support the move. It remained above average on the move, but is backing off as it attempts to consolidate the recent moves. Normally on an upside move we do not like declining volume, but the fact that the index reversed its action intraday and finished well off the high makes the lower volume gain look much better than a high volume reversal.
Up volume: 855 million
Down volume: 540 million. Buyers tried to win the day and did, but they were not as powerful as in the past as volume ebbed lower on the attempted rally.
A/D and Hi/Lo: NYSE advancing issues continued to lead at 1.11 to 1, increasing the margin from 1.02 to 1, but well off the 2.4 to 1 and better readings earlier in the rally. Still, the move overall continues to be broad.
New highs: 216 (-57)
New lows: 12 (-1). New highs falling on an up day, a signal of a weakening move.
The Chart: http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/$indu.html
The Dow still fights the top of the summer 2001 trading range, Friday rallying to 10663.83 on the high, just off of the intraday consolidation high of 10,670. The action emphasized the strength of the resistance, but it also shows that the move has to consolidate a bit more before it can make the break. It has four days of lower volume consolidation without giving up much ground. We want to continue to see it hold above the 10,400 level on the consolidation for the move up over the summer 2001 consolidation high.
S&P 500:
Very similar action to the Dow. It has broke over the 200 day MVA (1150.37) and is now attempting to consolidate the move up off of 1075 where it double bottomed. Its resistance is the double tops from December and January (1170 and 1176.55) that roughly mark the bottom of the summer of 2001 trading range. Friday it made a run at them, hitting 1172.76 on the high before reversing. It still closed positive, but well off that intraday high where it found resistance. Again we anticipate the S&P to test down toward the 200 day MVA as it consolidates the move off of 1075 (almost 100 points) for the next run at resistance. After forming the double bottom with handle and breaking out, the S&P is now finishing up the consolidation with a cup with handle. There is still a lot of overhead on up to 1250, but the breakout over the twin tops looks very doable with the improved economic conditions.
Stats: +6.77 (+0.6%) to close at 1164.31.
Volume: NYSE volume backed off once more to 1.421 billion (-6.9%).
The Chart: http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/$spx.html
THIS WEEK
After last week there is even more economic news, but it starts taking a back seat. Wholesale inventories, retail sales, business inventories, PPI, and Michigan sentiment. Not the same heavy hitters, but important. After such a big week, however, there may be economic news saturation.
The indexes showed some signs of wear Friday even with the gains. They have run far and will need a rest. They started on Thursday but got another injection of economic excitement Friday.
We expect this week to continue the consolidation that is working on the Dow and S&P and that tried to start on the Nasdaq. Thus far it has been orderly when the pullbacks have come with volume contracting.
As the Dow and S&P have started to consolidate we are seeing individual stocks do the same after making good moves and others finally starting to shape up. With the major indexes looking as if they are going to continue to consolidate their moves further, we need to remain patient, let the stocks set up and then make their moves.
Support and Resistance
Nasdaq: Closed at 1929.67
Resistance: Broke the 200 day MVA and is now at the top of the November consolidation at 1934 to 1941. After that is 1980 (the December gap up point) and some minor resistance at 2000. Then the January top at 2098.88.
Support: The 200 day MVA just broken Friday (1905.35). 1875 has acted as support in the past and represents the bottom of the November consolidation range. After that, not a lot of room before 1800.
S&P 500: Closed at 1164.31
Resistance: The December high (1173.62) and the January high (1176.97). That point also marks roughly the lows of summer 2001 consolidation that runs up to 1240.
Support: 1150 and the 200 day MVA (1150.37). After that, 1125 is the hump in the double bottom, and the simple 50 day MVA (1127.78) and exponential 50 day MVA (1124.62) are converging. 1100 has acted as support as well.
Dow: Closed at 10,572.49
Resistance: The top of the June, July, and August 2001 trading range at 10,600 (10,679 intraday high), is still holding tough for now. 10,800 represents some resistance. That is followed by resistance at 11,000 on its way to the May 2001 high at 11,345.72.
Support: 10,400 has been providing support, followed by the January high at 10,300. Then the 200 day MVA (10,023.74) and 10,000. The 50 day MVA (10,025.41) is joining up at that level.
Weekly Economic Calendar (All times Eastern). The figures are the consensus expectations, not ours.
3-11-02
Wholesale Inventories, January (10:00): -0.5% versus -0.6%.
3-13-02
Retail Sales, February (8:30): 0.3% versus -0.2% prior.
Retail Sales, ex-auto, February (8:30): 0.4% versus 1.2% prior.
3-14-02
Business Inventories, January (8:30): -0.4% versus -0.4% prior.
Initial Claims, 3/9 (8:30): 376K versus 376K prior.
Export Prices ex-ag., February (8:30): 0.1% versus 0.1% prior.
Import Prices, ex-oil, February (8:30): 0.1% versus 0.1% prior.
Current Account, Q4 (8:30): -$101.5B versus -$95.0B prior.
3-15-02
PPI, February (8:30): 0.1% versus 0.1% prior.
Core PPI, February (8:30): 0.1% versus -0.1% prior.
Industrial Production, February (9:15): 0.2% versus -0.1% prior.
Capacity Utilization, February (9:15): 74.3% versus 74.2% prior.
Mich. Sentiment-Prel., March (9:45): 93.0 versus 90.7 prior.
SUBSCRIBER QUESTIONS
Q: Can you please tell me what web site I can go to that will tell me the volume & A/D line during the trading day on the NYSE and Nasdaq?
A: On the web you can get very current data on volume and advancers versus decliners at http://quote.yahoo.com/mo.
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information. A "prior high" refers to the high at the start of a base.
For conserving space on listings of stop losses, the symbol (7%) indicates that the stop is 7% below the buy point.
Good movers: HRB continued to sell; for those who watched intraday, buying back the calls on the low was the thing to do! For upside, LUX, MVL, and STEC hit a new closing highs. FDP has been unstoppable since it moved off the 50 day MVA in January, though we don't see a lot of upside from here (needs a pullback).
Stop Advisories: FRK (39.75), NVLS (51.50, covered call), BBX (10.50)
Stocks/Indexes from the Thursday report:
KSWS: Held for a penny loss after breaking out of the handle to its double bottom. Volume fell back, though, so we're continuing to look for the move up to 40 (5% on breakout).
ACAT: Broke out of the ascending wedge! A buy up to 19.16 on the breakout (closed at 18.50).
SBUX: Stronger volume and a tap at the 18 day MVA in the handle; closed back over the recent support at the 10 day MVA. Still looking for a breakout from the cup base.
PRIA: Holding laterally in the test of the 50 day MVA bounce; showed stronger volume and the stock cleared resistance on the high, but pulled back below it to close.
RPM: Volume rose but RPM didn't move up in the ascending wedge; it broke below the 18 day MVA which was supporting the lows in the pattern. Could be breaking down without giving the breakout.
Continued plays:
Covered call:
HRB: Sold down to the 50 day MVA, bouncing back from below that support (hit a low at 45.17) to close. The April $45 calls have dropped over three points in value to $3.20 Friday; looks like it will try to hold support so is a good place to buy them back.
NVLS: Bought back the calls when the stock gapped up on the open (51.87); it pulled back to 51.20 before heading out again, giving an opportunity to get out with a small loss.
Other continued plays: Still like GAP (3-06) and SNS (3-06) a lot.
ADBE: Holding the 18 day MVA in the test of its ascending wedge breakout.
BBX: Passed through our suggested stop loss for a test of the 50 day MVA. It managed to close back over the 18 day MVA, however, which is supporting the ascending wedge! What a save.
HNT: Test of the breakout. Popped from the short term MVAs on a rise in volume, and looking good.
LYTS: Test of the breakout. Holding above support at the 10 day MVA; tapped the 18 day MVA on the low then made a nice bounce. Lower, below average volume, however. New buy point is 20.25 on strong volume, and target is 23.
NBTY: Was a subscriber's choice February 7, an ascending wedge pattern in the mid-right side of a 7-month cup base. Moved over some resistance in the pattern Friday (has the lone January intraday high at 15.44 to clear), but needs volume to back it up. Buy point is 15.52 for a breakout.
NYCB: Sold below the 18 day MVA on strong volume. The stock has been moving up the right side of its 7-month cup, bouncing twice from this support. It was pulling back and beginning to form a handle, but this move dashed that.
Best Plays:
1) NWK: A nice pennant and looks ready for action.
2) MPS: Looking for a breakout!
3) PEGS: Testing the breakout.
4) PLCM: Ready to drop further.
New plays:
NWK (Network Equipment--$5.45; +0.11; no options): Computer Hardware
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nwk.html
STATUS: Yes, a networking company that could give us a nice surge. NWK is in a pennant pattern that it developed after making a nice breakout over its 200 day MVA back in December. The stock is in an 18-month base that is part of a much larger base (6 years), but our interest is in a trade on a breakout from this pattern. Support on the lows is at the 50 day MVA (5.02) and volume looks good at low levels throughout the pattern. Friday NWK moved off of its 18 day MVA on a strong volume surge (114,400; avg. 73,000), and if this doesn't break it higher (and we are looking for a breakout), well, it will just have to try again. Looks good from here, though. Money flow is excellent. Target: 7.20
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 5.50 on continued strong volume. Breakout: 5.91 on continued strong volume. Stop Advisory (7%): 5.50
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/nwk.html
MPS (Modis Professional--$7.75; +.53; optionable): Staffing and Outsourcing Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mps.html
STATUS: Deep in a base over 3 years old, MPS rallied from $4 to $8 from September to December, and has since pulled back in a 10-week cup. Last week it broke over the 50 day MVA (at 7), tested it, and then Friday rallied on a huge volume jump. Volume was well above average (448,000) to 929,400 on no news. This could be the stock's breakout move. Excellent money flow, and buying looks good. Target: 10
BUY POINT: Breakout: 8.10 on continued strong volume. Stop Advisory (7%): 7.53
POSITION: Stock and/or July $5 calls to buy (MPS GA).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/mps.html
Updates:
PEGS (Pegasus Solutions--$18.17; -0.07; optionable): Business Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pegs.html
STATUS: Covered February 4 when the stock was in the handle of the then-16-month cup with handle. The stock suffered some February weakness, but then early this month broke out on a volume surge. It is now pulling back in a test of the move. We are looking for a better breakout after the test. PEGS is holding above the previous handle high (January high at 18.02), tapping down to the 10 day MVA on the Friday low. Volume is down to 142,600 (avg. 176,000) with the stock showing a doji above those two supports. Looking for a continued hold with, perhaps, another day or two of consolidation; it is getting close to making a move. Great money flow and buying. Target: 23
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 19 on volume in the range of 180,000 or higher. Stop Advisory (7%): 17.67
POSITION: Stock and/or July $15 calls to buy (PUG GC).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/pegs.html
Put Plays:
PLCM (Polycom--$26.74; -1.70; optionable): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plcm.html
STATUS: PLCM is in a downtrend since early December, and now its down trendline coincides with the 50 day MVA (30), a level of resistance tapped on Thursday's high. The stock didn't break it and Friday fell through its 200 day MVA (28.28) then the short term MVAs (18 day at 27.15) on strong volume (4.7 million; avg. 3 million) on no specific news. On a move down from here for a drop to 21.50 at the February lows.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 26.50 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: July $40 puts to buy (QHD SH).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/plcm.html
GE (General Electric--$40.60; -0.35; optionable): Conglomerate
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/ge.html
STATUS: GE formed a double top last fall and fell about 6 points as a result; it recovered back over the 50 day MVA (now at 38.68) for a move over the 200 day MVA on Wednesday, but could not hold the break of resistance (41.30). After two more days of opening above but closing below, the selling started picking up Friday, volume rising to 28 million (avg. 21.7 million). We are now looking for a move down to 36, but it could test the February low at 35, where GE fell from the earlier double top. Possible support at 36, and we will watch it when it gets to the 50 day MVA.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 40 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: June $47.50 puts to buy (GE RW).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ge.html
PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that look ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: DGX, FRX, LLL, MIK, APPB, IGT.
FRX ($78.00; -0.51): FRX is still holding the 78 support on average volume and isn't looking its best. We have been watching it hold that level, but it remains below the 50 day MVA at 79.11. Will give it a bit more time to get back over the resistance.
DGX (72.60; -0.42): DGX continues to move up its 50 day MVA (70.10) pulling back the past three sessions, Friday on higher, above average volume (828,900). It tested the 18 day MVA on the low (72.09) and bounced up slightly. The rising volume is an indication it may try to bounce here, but DGX tends to move down to the 50 day MVA before bouncing.
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: BBBY, SRCL
SRCL (65.36; -0.03): SRCL continues to move laterally and slightly lower on very low, below average volume (140,700). This lateral move is above the prior high in December high at 62.85 and the 10 day MVA.
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: CSCO, SEBL, EMLX, BRCM, HDI, BRCD, BUD, AMGN, WMT, ORCL, HB, NOC
Techs in the portfolio had positive days, but still are not in good patterns (SEBL, BRCM, BRCD). Will look for some pullbacks for taking new positions; not chasing here.
BUD ($49.77; +0.49): Held the 18 day MVA as volume fell back from Thursday's strong levels (some selling down to that support). May consolidate for another bounce if it holds; has had only one previous bounce from the 18 day after the late January test of the 50 day MVA.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
yahoo stock
trade stock
|
