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us stock market, trend trading stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Pre-Announcement Plays are found in the Pre-Announcement section.
Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 05/06/2008
BCSI (Blue Coat Systems--$25.16; +0.86; optionable): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcsi.html
EARNINGS: Third week of May
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. Broke higher to start the month and has sidestepped the past two sessions, forming something of a handle to its 11 week base formed at the bottom of a long 7 month downtrend. Could call this a trend reversal as well. Either way, it is cracking over the 90 day SMA, setting up what looks to be the start of a nice recovery. Great volume on the upside sessions, clearing the March peak, the 'hump' in the short pattern. Ready to step in as it continues higher on a jump in volume.
Volume: 917.782K Avg Volume: 1.29M
BUY POINT: $25.42 Volume=1.4M Target=$31.85 Stop=$23.64
POSITION: IYU GE - July 25c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcsi.html
Play Date: 05/06/2008
FLIR (Flir Systems--$34.44; +0.38; optionable): Scientific and technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flir.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-24-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice surge on the earnings news, bolting higher out of a 4 month reverse head and shoulders base on strong trade. It needed a break after that move and has worked laterally the past two weeks, fading back to the 10 day EMA (33.76) on the Tuesday low and rebounding for a gain. A nice test of the breakout move, and this consolidation has set it up for the next move higher to take on an all-new high. Very nice, very strong.
Volume: 865.854K Avg Volume: 1.322M
BUY POINT: $35.36 Volume=1.8M Target=$42.45 Stop=$33.57
POSITION: FFQ GG - July $35c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/flir.html
Play Date: 05/06/2008
LUK (Leucadia National--$53.89; +2.04; optionable): Lumber, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/luk.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-21-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Working in a four week trading range after surging to start April, breaking from a 5.5 month base. Volume surged Tuesday as LUK moved off the 18 day EMA near the lows in the trading rang and bumped at the breakout point. Looking to use the breakout from the range on continued solid volume as our entry point on this strong like oak play.
Volume: 1.968M Avg Volume: 977.222K
BUY POINT: $54.38 Volume=1M Target=$62.55 Stop=$51.88
POSITION: LUK IK - Sept. $55c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/luk.html
Play Date: 05/06/2008
NSC (Norfolk Southern--$62.27; +2.08; optionable): Railroads
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nsc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-22-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Gapped higher on earnings in April, clearing a 9 month base. Rallied to 62 on that breakout and then tested, fading to the 18 day EMA on the earnings results; actually gapping lower. But it managed to hold that level and work laterally, setting up the next move. Tuesday volume surged back above average as NSC surged higher once more. The rails are on rails, and looking to step into this one as it continues this breakout move.
Volume: 4.855M Avg Volume: 3.612M
BUY POINT: $62.54 Volume=3.6M Target=$71.95 Stop=$59.38
POSITION: NSC IL - Sept. $60c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nsc.html
Play Date: 05/06/2008
TTEK (Tetra Tech--$23.16; -0.43; optionable): Consulting, engineering, construction services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ttek.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-30-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped out of a 6 month cup base to start the month, rising some seriously good earnings higher. It has come back to test that move on lower and lower volume, tapping at the 10 day EMA (22.65) on the Tuesday low before rebounding. May snug up a bit more toward the 10 day EMA, but a nice pullback, and when it bounces to continue the breakout we are going to step in and ride its services higher.
Volume: 998.567K Avg Volume: 572.221K
BUY POINT: $23.65 Volume=900K Target=$28.45 Stop=$22.55
POSITION: TQI IX - Sept. $22.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ttek.html
Play Date: 05/07/2008
WGOV (Woodward Governor--$34.55; +0.27; optionable): Industrial electrical equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wgov.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-21-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice test the past week as WGOV comes back to test near support at the 10 day EMA (34) Monday and Tuesday, bouncing Tuesday off that level. After a great run from the second half of 2006 through December 2007 it needed a base to reset the clock, and this 5 month deep double bottom has done that. Strong volume surge in April in the earnings took it back up near the old peak highs at 35. There it stalled and has tested on low volume. Looking for a good volume upside move to give us the buy point.
Volume: 315.6K Avg Volume: 498.659K
BUY POINT: $35.84 Volume=750K Target=$41.31 Stop=$33.77
POSITION: GUP GG - July $35c (53 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/wgov.html
Leaders:
Play Date: 05/06/2008
GS (Goldman Sachs--$197.61; +0.49; optionable): Investment banking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gs.html
EARNINGS: Mid-June
STATUS: Trend reversal. GS is on its way back up after gapping higher over its down trendline spanning the October to early April peaks. It broke through key resistance at the 200 day SMA (196) to start the month and has come back to test that move. Tuesday it tapped the 10 day EMA on the low and reversed to hold the breakout over the 200 day. Nice break through resistance and a nice test. Now we are looking for a continued break higher, preferably with some more volume. It lacked any trade the last time we looked at it, but if we get the price move and just a bit better volume it will be worth moving in.
Volume: 7.509M Avg Volume: 13.046M
BUY POINT: $200.11 Volume=15M Target=$229.00 Stop=$195.65
POSITION: GPY GT - July $200c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gs.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: No split announcement again, but AAPL is still moving well, leading the market ahead of its next iPhone announcement.
ATK: Testing the strong breakout move
ATW: Tentative for 5-8-08
BHP: Mid-May
CELG: Researching date
CHD: Forecast early May. That was not what we wanted as it traded in a huge range on the session.
EAC: Blasting off once more.
GGB: Researching date
GILD: Researching date
IBM: No split announced with earnings. Nice test of the break higher.
JOYG: Researching date.
OTEX: First week of May. No announcement but moving very well.
RIG: Forecast mid-May
SCHN: Researching date
UNP: Announced the split last Thursday and still moving well.
UPL: Early May. Gapping higher on strong volume to a new high.
VMI: Mid-July
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/26/2008
IBM (International Business Machines--$122.82; +0.79; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ibm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-16-08
STATUS: Flying plateau. Nice hold at the 18 day EMA and bouncing Tuesday. No volume but expecting to see it as it makes the break. It is getting ready, just needs a new catalyst. To recap: IBM was one of the earnings announcements that turned the tide against the mediocrity that started the earnings season. It reported and surged the next session, jumping out of a 6.5 month double bottom with handle base. After that surge it started laterally, moving in a tight range lat week as it waited for the 10 day EMA (122) to rise and catch up with it. Friday it reached down to the 10 day just to feel for it and bounced back up. Low volume on the lateral move; no one is selling. Once the short term profit takers are out of the way IBM will make its next break higher. Very strong.
Volume: 5.909M Avg Volume: 8.685M
BUY POINT: $125.21 Volume=9M Target=$139.95 Stop=$121.77
POSITION: IBM GE - July $125c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ibm.html
Play Date: 05/01/2008
LSTR (Landstar System--$54.42; +0.48; optionable): Trucking
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lstr.html
EARNINGS: July 17
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Trying to make the move higher, just needs some more trade. Very solid pattern and the transports are still trucking. To recap: Tested back to the 10 day EMA Friday, then rebounded to cut its losses. Low volume so no heavy selling, just taking a breather after the strong Thursday move. On the rebound from here it is a buy as volume climbs. To recaps: A short 5 week base formed over the 50 day EMA, consolidating the mid-March breakout from a larger 9 month cup with handle base. Strong volume Thursday as LSTR broke higher off the 18 day EMA from the handle. Strong money flow, great sector, nice consolidation to run it higher. Very nice.
Volume: 511.996K Avg Volume: 744.536K
BUY POINT: $54.31 Volume=1.2M Target=$62.45 Stop=$51.45
POSITION: QRY GJ - July $50c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/lstr.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 04/24/2008
CAT (Caterpillar--$83.23; +0.48; optionable): Heavy machinery
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cat.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-18
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice move back up after gapping lower Tuesday, still holding the 10 day EMA. In position to move and ready to step in as it does. To recap: Very solid set up to move higher after testing lower to the 18 day EMA (80.48) intraday and rebounding to post a modest gain. Excellent test, and we just wait for it to make the strong break higher. To recap: Gapped higher on earnings and has come back this week to fill the gap, fading back on low volume, tapping the 10 day EMA on the Thursday low and then rebounding to close flat. Nice breakout from a 7 month reverse head and shoulders base, and a great test. Showed a doji on the session, and that indicates the pullback is over. Ready to move in as CAT rebounds once more.
Volume: 4.163M Avg Volume: 6.849M
BUY POINT: New: $83.75 (orig. $82.57) Volume=7.5M Target=$94.95 Stop=$79.77
POSITION: CAT HP - Aug. $80c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cat.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/03/2008
EQIX (Equinix--$88.34; -0.31; optionable): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eqix.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-23-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Full test of the 200 day SMA (86.81) this week, tapping it on the lows and rebounding. Very nice setup. Need to see more volume, and if we do, we can step in earlier than the buy point below. To recap: Working laterally last week over the 200 day SMA after gapping higher in late April on earnings. After that strong volume move it needed to consolidate, and this handle is doing that, preparing for the breakout from its 6 month base. Excellent action with money flow well out ahead of the price, rising even as price moves laterally. That divergence is going to lead to the breakout move.
Volume: 862.257K Avg Volume: 1.299M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $90.11; Breakout: $93.22 Volume=1.9M Target=$109.95 Stop=$88.32
POSITION: FQS IR - Sept. $90c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/eqix.html
Play Date: 05/03/2008
UTHR (United Therapeutics--$92.35; -0.07; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uthr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Good reach lower Tuesday, tapping toward the 10 day EMA on the low and rebounding to flat. Excellent action, ready to make us some money. To recap: Nice gap higher on volume with its earnings, clearing a 14 week base that formed at the bottom of a larger 5 month pattern. Held at the 200 day SMA on the lows of the pattern, showing key institutional support at that level. This base also filled a huge gap from early November on good news about one of its products. Excellent money flow, and strong volume Thursday and Friday as it started the move. Looking to move in as UTHR continues higher.
Volume: 645.643K Avg Volume: 644.07K
BUY POINT: New: $92.68 (orig. $91.21) Volume=850K Target=$104.95 Stop=$87.65
POSITION: FUH HR - Aug. $90c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uthr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
trend trading stock
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