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us stock market, trend trading stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/07/2008
BAM (Brookfield Asset Management--$34.15; -0.08; optionable): Asset management services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bam.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-30-08
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. BAM surged in April ahead of its earnings report, breaking form a 2 month double bottom with handle base that turned out to be the bottom of its selloff that started in mid-2007. Strong surge up through the 200 day SMA (33.51) to start May, then sidestepping the past week in a narrow range just over that key level. Volume surged higher Wednesday as BAM gapped modestly higher then closed flat. Very good relative strength for a financial in the Wednesday trade, and looking for this strength to provide another break higher and run toward 40.
Volume: 2.13M Avg Volume: 1.348M
BUY POINT: $34.75 Volume=2M Target=$39.95 Stop=$33.39
POSITION: BAM IG - Sept. $35c (54 delta, 139 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bam.html
Play Date: 05/07/2008
BMRN (Biomarin Pharmaceuticals--$37.54; -0.12; optionable): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bmrn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-29-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Strong surge higher the last day of April completed the last bounce of the 12 week base. Rallied to 38 and then slid laterally the past week on low volume in a narrow range, holding over the 90 day SMA (36.44) as it forms the handle to its base. Money flow is leading higher even as BMRN works laterally. Perched for the breakout to a new all-time high and this base has set the move up well.
Volume: 1.263M Avg Volume: 1.914M
BUY POINT: $38.21 Volume=2.9M Target=$45.95 Stop=$36.21
POSITION: NUR GG - July $35c (67 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bmrn.html
Play Date: 05/07/2008
CX (Cemex SA--$28.13; -0.97; optionable): Cement
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-21-08
STATUS: Cup. A big leader in 2006 and to mid-2007, CX them peaked in June of that year and started the current long base. It bottomed in January and bounced, then moved laterally until starting higher to end April. A nice rounded bottom has formed, and the break above the 200 day SMA (28.17) Monday on stronger, above average volume was a key milestone. It added to the gain Tuesday then fell back to that support on Wednesday as volume fell back. This is a considerable base and thus is solid. Looking for CX to hold the bottom it has poured here and break higher off this support and continue a steady trend higher.
Volume: 5.908M Avg Volume: 5.32M
BUY POINT: $28.88 Volume=7M Target=$34.95 Stop=$27.89
POSITION: CIZ GE - July $25c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cx.html
Play Date: 05/07/2008
MAN (Manpower--$67.21; +0.05; optionable): Staffing services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/man.html
EARNINGS: 4-18-08
STATUS: Test breakout. MAN is in an 11 month cup base that bottomed in January, worked laterally for 2.5 months and then gapped higher in mid-April on its strong earnings. Rallied on up to 70 on that move. It is now testing, fading to the 10 day EMA (66.68) Tuesday and Wednesday, holding above that level in a narrow range as volume swelled toward average. Nice set up with money flow moving higher ahead of price. Looking for more volume as it comes off of this test of near support.
Volume: 871.109K Avg Volume: 897.173K
BUY POINT: $68.45 Volume=1.2M Target=$78.95 Stop=$66.48
POSITION: MAN IM - Sept. $65c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/man.html
Play Date: 05/07/2008
NVDA (Nvidia--$22.01; -0.52; optionable): Semiconductor graphics and game chips
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nvda.html
EARNINGS: 5-8-08
STATUS: Double bottom. Earnings are Thursday, but we are looking at NVDA as a recovery play given the pattern it has set up. If it can put together a good earnings report and moves through the 90 day SMA (22.55) we will look for an opportunity to get into the play as NVDA moves higher. The stock double bottomed spanning March and April after a pullback from 38 at the October high. A nice high volume break higher to start the month and then working laterally the past three sessions in a narrow range, refusing to give up the gains and preparing for the next break higher. Now we see if it can get the bump higher.
Volume: 17.9M Avg Volume: 19.25M
BUY POINT: $22.68 Volume=21M Target=$27.85 Stop=$21.45
POSITION: UVA IX - Sept. $22.50c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nvda.html
Play Date: 05/07/2008
RTH (Retail ETF--$95.62; -0.93; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rth.html
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. Taking another look at RTH as it tests further, holding the 200 day SMA (95.42) on the Tuesday and Wednesday lows. Set up a double bottom spanning January and March, breaking out in late October. It is testing that move and is set to make the next break higher if it can get a market catalyst.
Volume: 5.657M Avg Volume: 6.961M
BUY POINT: $97.75 Volume=10M Target=$107.00 Stop=$95.22
POSITION: RTH GS - July $95c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rth.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/06/2008
BCSI (Blue Coat Systems--$24.10; -1.06; optionable): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcsi.html
EARNINGS: Third week of May
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. Still working laterally at the 90 day SMA on declining, below average volume. Just being patient to see if BCSI will show us a strong upside move as it tries to recapture some past glory. To recap: Broke higher to start the month and has sidestepped the past two sessions, forming something of a handle to its 11 week base formed at the bottom of a long 7 month downtrend. Could call this a trend reversal as well. Either way, it is cracking over the 90 day SMA, setting up what looks to be the start of a nice recovery. Great volume on the upside sessions, clearing the March peak, the 'hump' in the short pattern. Ready to step in as it continues higher on a jump in volume.
Volume: 665.971K Avg Volume: 1.29M
BUY POINT: $25.42 Volume=1.4M Target=$31.85 Stop=$23.64
POSITION: IYU GE - July 25c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bcsi.html
Play Date: 05/03/2008
EQIX (Equinix--$87.59; -0.75; optionable): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eqix.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-23-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still the excellent test, holding just over the 200 day SMA on low, below average volume, showing a third doji on the candlestick meaning it is trading in a narrow range and showing signs of a momentum shift. Just looking for the break higher on a return to stronger volume. To recap: Working laterally last week over the 200 day SMA (86.87) after gapping higher in late April on earnings. After that strong volume move it needed to consolidate, and this handle is doing that, preparing for the breakout from its 6 month base. Excellent action with money flow well out ahead of the price, rising even as price moves laterally. That divergence is going to lead to the breakout move.
Volume: 677.057K Avg Volume: 1.296M
BUY POINT: New: 90.38; Breakout: $93.22 Volume=1.9M Target=$109.95 Stop=$88.32
POSITION: FQS IR - Sept. $90c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/eqix.html
Play Date: 04/23/2008
MEA (Metalico, Inc.--$13.70; +0.45; no options): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mea.html
EARNINGS: 4-24-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Surged Wednesday on very strong volume, moving to a new high but then backing off for a more modest gain. Still very solid and ready to move in as it continues higher after the Wednesday action. To recap: Surged higher last week, breaking out of a 6 month double bottom base on a strong volume jump. After that blast higher it has worked laterally the past four sessions on lower volume. Wednesday volume jumped back above average, indicating that MEA is ready to make the next break higher and continue the breakout move that has MEA, a new issue in mid-2005, at a new high.
Volume: 2.525M Avg Volume: 365.829K
BUY POINT: New: On a continued move higher (orig. $13.65) Volume=455K Target=$16.95 Stop=$12.69
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mea.html
Play Date: 05/06/2008
NSC (Norfolk Southern--$61.18; -1.09; optionable): Railroads
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nsc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-22-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Tested back Wednesday on lower, average volume as NSC gave up some of the strong Tuesday gain. Held easily above the 10 day EMA, and still looking for NSC to make the break higher to move in. To recap: Gapped higher on earnings in April, clearing a 9 month base. Rallied to 62 on that breakout and then tested, fading to the 18 day EMA on the earnings results; actually gapping lower. But it managed to hold that level and work laterally, setting up the next move. Tuesday volume surged back above average as NSC surged higher once more. The rails are on rails, and looking to step into this one as it continues this breakout move.
Volume: 3.666M Avg Volume: 3.612M
BUY POINT: $62.54 Volume=3.6M Target=$71.95 Stop=$59.38
POSITION: NSC IL - Sept. $60c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nsc.html
Play Date: 05/06/2008
TTEK (Tetra Tech--$22.97; -0.19; optionable): Consulting, engineering, construction services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ttek.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-30-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Excellent test continues with TTEK showing a very tight doji on the Wednesday candlestick chart, tapping the 10 day EMA on the low as volume increased intensity to ell above average. Looks as if the test is over and ready to move higher. To recap: Gapped out of a 6 month cup base to start the month, rising some seriously good earnings higher. It has come back to test that move on lower and lower volume, tapping at the 10 day EMA (22.65) on the Tuesday low before rebounding. May snug up a bit more toward the 10 day EMA, but a nice pullback, and when it bounces to continue the breakout we are going to step in and ride its services higher.
Volume: 1.291M Avg Volume: 572.221K
BUY POINT: $23.65 Volume=900K Target=$28.45 Stop=$22.55
POSITION: TQI IX - Sept. $22.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ttek.html
Play Date: 05/05/2008
VIV (Vivo Participaceos--$6.99; -0.21; optionable): Brazilian cellular service
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/viv.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Another stock in a solid test of its breakout, VIV tapped toward the 10 day EMA (6.91) Wednesday and then rebounded to hold that level on the close as volume jumped further above average. Excellent set up for the break higher and just waiting for the move. To recap: VIV broke sharply higher last Thursday, clearing a 9 week ascending base on very strong trade. Rallied to 7.79 on the move Friday, then came back Monday on much lower, below average volume. Looking for a hold of this breakout though it may come back some more before it is ready to make the next break higher. Want to be ready, however, for when it turns back up from this test.
Volume: 7.532M Avg Volume: 4.686M
BUY POINT: $7.31 Volume=5.5M Target=$8.95 Stop=$6.77
POSITION: VIV GU - July $7.50c (53 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/viv.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
trend trading stock
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