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us stock market, trend trading stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Plays:
New Pre-Announcement Plays are found in the Pre-Announcement section.
Post-Split Plays:
New buy point on a current position:
Play Date: 05/10/2008
CTRP (Ctrip.com International--$64.92; -1.13; optionable): Chinese online travel services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctrp.html
EARNINGS: 5-14-08 after the close
STATUS: Test breakout. Big surge to start the month, breaking out from its 5 month base formed by making higher lows off the 200 day SMA. Made us some great money and then gapped lower to the 10 day EMA Wednesday, hugging there until Friday. Looking for CTRP to resume its move and when it does that is when we move in.
Volume: 584.882K Avg Volume: 893.333K
BUY POINT: $66.11 Volume=1.2M Target=$75.95 Stop=$63.89
POSITION: QCT IM - Sept. $65c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ctrp.html
Leaders:
Play Date: 05/10/2008
GOOG (Google--$573.20; -9.81; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/goog.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-17-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. GOOG gapped higher on is mid-April earnings and rallied through the 200 day SMA (568) to start the month before fading back to test this past week. Volume faded on the test and GOOG held just over the 200 day Friday, settling at the 10 day EMA. Very nice test of the move and of support at the key 200 day SMA. It gapped lower in February and the gap up in April is an island reversal, a bullish signal that can run a long way before ever having to come back and fill the gap. Indeed we are looking for a run up toward the old highs if GOOG can show us some volume as it breaks higher off of this test.
Volume: 4.485M Avg Volume: 7.019M
BUY POINT: $583.31 Volume=10M Target=$695.00 Stop=$569.65
POSITION: GOO IR - Sept. $590c (45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/goog.html
Play Date: 05/10/2008
SNDA (Shanda Interactive Ent.--$35.79; +1.90; optionable): Chinese internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/snda.html
EARNINGS: Late May (unconfirmed; announced prior at 2-26-08)
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Have been watching SNDA given the success of CTRP and SOHU, and after a spill lower on Wednesday it held the 18 day EMA on the low, showing a doji and then jumping higher Friday on even stronger volume. Nicely formed 6 month base and after that quick shakeout Wednesday it looks as if it is going to give us some upside similar to the other plays on the report. Cool.
Volume: 907.167K Avg Volume: 864.17K
BUY POINT: $36.62 Volume=1.3M Target=$43.95 Stop=$34.06
POSITION: QKU IG - Sept. $35c (61 delta, 291 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/snda.html
Play Date: 05/10/2008
SVNT (Savient Pharma--$24.60; +0.70; optionable): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/svnt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-7-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Volume is swelling on the upside sessions this month as SVNT puts the finishing touches on its 18 week base that is setting it up for a breakout to a new high and a run from there. Solid earnings and money flow is leading higher. Just looking for SVTN to extend this move and give us the buy on some good volume. Very nice.
Volume: 1.411M Avg Volume: 1.259M
BUY POINT: $25.02 Volume=2M Target=$30.65 Stop=$23.27
POSITION: UVP IE - Sept. $25c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/svnt.html
New buy point on current positions:
Play Date: 05/10/2008
GNK (Genco Shipping & Trading--$75.26; -0.62; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gnk.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-30-08
STATUS: Breakout test. After blasting higher to start the month by clearing a 6 month reverse head and shoulders base, GNK has returned to test the move, tapping at the 10 day EMA on the Thursday and Friday lows before bouncing back. Nice action indicating buyers moving in at support. Looking for a break higher to move into some more or new positions.
Volume: 655.867K Avg Volume: 922.083K
BUY POINT: $76.08 Volume=1M Target=$90.95 Stop=$72.94
POSITION: GNK GO - July $75c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gnk.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: No split announcement again, but AAPL is still moving well, leading the market ahead of its next iPhone announcement.
ATK: Testing the strong breakout move
ATW: Tentative for 5-8-08. No split announcement but solid earnings after the close.
BHP: Mid-May
CELG: Researching date
EAC: Still surging.
GD: Forecast July
GGB: Researching date
GILD: Researching date
IBM: No split announced with earnings. Nice test of the break higher and looking very strong last week.
JOYG: Researching date.
LSTR: Tentatively set mid-July
OTEX: No announcement with earnings
RIG: Forecast mid-May
SCHN: Researching date
UNP: Announced the split last Thursday and still moving well.
UPL: No announcement thus far but moving higher nicely.
VMI: Mid-July
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/10/2008
RS (Reliance Steel--$62.26; -0.50; optionable): Steel fabrication
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rs.html
EARNINGS: 7-17-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Working on a 6 week handle to its 11 month base. It made it up to the July peak and has worked laterally, gathering itself for the breakout to a new high. Liked how volume swelled last week, indicating buyers moving in as it worked laterally. Nice tight doji with tail Friday; can indicate it is ready. Just going to be patient and let it make a break on strong volume.
Volume: 813.35K Avg Volume: 964.557K
BUY POINT: $63.38 Volume=1.4M Target=$72.95 Stop=$60.68
POSITION: RS IL - Sept. $60c (65 delta, 263 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/rs.html
New buy point on a current position:
Play Date: 05/10/2008
KSU (Kansas City Southern--$45.90; -1.14; optionable): Railroads
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/ksu.html
EARNINGS: 7-31-08
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. KSU is making the second test of the mid-April breakout from a big 11 month base. A strong stock with a strong breakout move such as KSU will make 4 to 5 bounces up the 10 or 18 day EMA before needing to test lower, typically toward the 50 day EMA. It spent last week fading to the 10 day EMA (45.61), holding that level on low volume. This is its second test so there is still plenty of upside in front of it. When it bounces on rising trade we move in.
Volume: 876.898K Avg Volume: 1.127M
BUY POINT: $46.85 Volume=1.2M Target=$54.88 Stop=$44.89
POSITION: KSU II - Sept. $45c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ksu.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/08/2008
GD (General Dynamics--$90.92; -0.54; optionable): Aerospace/defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gd.html
EARNINGS: 7-23-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Another strong volume session Friday as GD gapped lower but then recovered to hold its lateral range. Still in great position to make the breakout and love the volume swell last week. To recap: Volume swelled Tuesday and Wednesday as GD tested the 10 day EMA, the bottom of the handle to its 5.5 month base. After a nice break higher in April to finish the cup it worked laterally on lower, below average volume, forming the handle or shakeout that precedes the breakout. Nice price break higher Thursday, but volume backed off after two good sessions. Looking for more volume as it makes the breakout move. Very nice.
Volume: 2.144M Avg Volume: 1.916M
BUY POINT: $91.88 Volume=2.9M Target=$103.95 Stop=$89.77
POSITION: GD HR - Aug. $90c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gd.html
Play Date: 04/26/2008
IBM (International Business Machines--$124.06; -0.86; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ibm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-16-08
STATUS: Flying plateau. A very strong week for IBM as it bumped up against the April high and volume was up on the upside sessions. Backed off modestly Friday on lower trade, leaving it set up to make a run at the breakout this week. To recap: IBM was one of the earnings announcements that turned the tide against the mediocrity that started the earnings season. It reported and surged the next session, jumping out of a 6.5 month double bottom with handle base. After that surge it started laterally, moving in a tight range lat week as it waited for the 10 day EMA (122) to rise and catch up with it. Friday it reached down to the 10 day just to feel for it and bounced back up. Low volume on the lateral move; no one is selling. Once the short term profit takers are out of the way IBM will make its next break higher. Very strong.
Volume: 5.502M Avg Volume: 8.661M
BUY POINT: $125.21 Volume=9M Target=$139.95 Stop=$121.77
POSITION: IBM GE - July $125c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ibm.html
CONTINUING PRE-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/08/2008
IVGN (Invitrogen--$93.55; +0.71; optionable): Biotechnology. Splits 2:1 on 5-28-08
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ivgn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-22-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Gapped lower Friday but rebounded for modest gain. No volume, however. Still well positioned, still looking for some more volume when it makes the move. To recap: Blasted out of a 13 week reverse head and shoulders base on its earnings news. It continued the run on up 96 on the move and has tested the past week, coming back to near support at the 10 day EMA on low volume. Holding this support the past four sessions in a tight range. Just waiting for the break higher on stronger volume to give us the entry to the pre-split run.
Volume: 355.338K Avg Volume: 739.541K
BUY POINT: $94.44 Volume=1.1M Target=$105.95 Stop=$92.32
POSITION: IUV HS - Aug. $95c (50 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ivgn.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/08/2008
ANSS (Ansys--$43.39; +0.49; optionable): Technical software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anss.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice jump Friday, and just needs a bit more trade as it continues the move. To recap: Surged higher on its earnings to start the month, breaking out of a 17 week cup with handle base. Strong volume on the move and then tested back the past week on lower trade, showing few sellers. Great breakout to a new all-time high, nice test giving us a great entry point when it makes the break higher.
Volume: 556.854K Avg Volume: 892.468K
BUY POINT: $43.44 Volume=1M Target=$51.95 Stop=$41.77
POSITION: QUS GH - July $40c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/anss.html
Play Date: 05/07/2008
CX (Cemex SA--$28.51; +0.07; optionable): Cement
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-21-08
STATUS: Cup. Doji at the 200 day SMA on low volume. Locked and loaded to make the next break higher. To recap: A big leader in 2006 and to mid-2007, CX them peaked in June of that year and started the current long base. It bottomed in January and bounced, then moved laterally until starting higher to end April. A nice rounded bottom has formed, and the break above the 200 day SMA (28.17) Monday on stronger, above average volume was a key milestone. It added to the gain Tuesday then fell back to that support on Wednesday as volume fell back. This is a considerable base and thus is solid. Looking for CX to hold the bottom it has poured here and break higher off this support and continue a steady trend higher.
Volume: 3.058M Avg Volume: 5.288M
BUY POINT: $28.88 Volume=7M Target=$34.95 Stop=$27.89
POSITION: CIZ GE - July $25c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cx.html
Play Date: 05/08/2008
ITU (Banco Itau--$27.69; -0.22; optionable): Foreign bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-6-08
STATUS: Breakout test. A doji at the 18 day EMA on Friday, holding over the February high. In position and just waiting for the move higher. To recap: Explosive move to end April and start May, surging to 32 and making us some very nice coin as it cleared its 4.5 month base and rallied. It has come back to test that move, selling down to the 18 day EMA (27.25) Wednesday and Thursday. Watching to see if ITU turns back up on some strong trade to start the move again. That is when we move in.
Volume: 3.675M Avg Volume: 6.136M
BUY POINT: $28.38 Volume=7.5M Target=$34.00 Stop=$27.05
POSITION: ITU IE - Sept. $25c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/itu.html
Play Date: 05/08/2008
NTES (Netease.com--$23.25; +0.59; optionable): Chinese internet content
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntes.html
EARNINGS: Late May
STATUS: Breakout test. Held the 10 day EMA on the test and jumped back up Friday on average volume. Maybe too cautious; if it continues higher it is a buy. To recap: Blasted higher in late April, gapping out of a 5.5 month base on strong, above average volume. Rallied up to 24 on the high and now testing this week, coming back to the 10 day EMA (22.54) on the Thursday low. Looking for it to hold at this near support and resume the breakout run. That is when we move in.
Volume: 995.381K Avg Volume: 1.093M
BUY POINT: On a continued move higher on decent trade (orig. $23.11) Volume=1.5M Target=$28.95 Stop=$22.31
POSITION: NQG IX - Sept. $22.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ntes.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/06/2008
BCSI (Blue Coat Systems--$25.37; +0.27; optionable): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcsi.html
EARNINGS: Third week of May
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. Was on its way Friday but faded in the afternoon. Better volume and really looks good to make the break higher. To recap: Broke higher to start the month and has sidestepped the past two sessions, forming something of a handle to its 11 week base formed at the bottom of a long 7 month downtrend. Could call this a trend reversal as well. Either way, it is cracking over the 90 day SMA, setting up what looks to be the start of a nice recovery. Great volume on the upside sessions, clearing the March peak, the 'hump' in the short pattern. Ready to step in as it continues higher on a jump in volume.
Volume: 1.352M Avg Volume: 1.269M
BUY POINT: $25.42 Volume=1.4M Target=$31.85 Stop=$23.64
POSITION: IYU GE - July 25c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcsi.html
Play Date: 05/03/2008
EQIX (Equinix--$88.39; -0.27; optionable): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eqix.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-23-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Quietly moving along the 200 day SMA in a tight range. Just waiting for the break higher. To recap: Working laterally last week over the 200 day SMA (86.87) after gapping higher in late April on earnings. After that strong volume move it needed to consolidate, and this handle is doing that, preparing for the breakout from its 6 month base. Excellent action with money flow well out ahead of the price, rising even as price moves laterally. That divergence is going to lead to the breakout move.
Volume: 461.043K Avg Volume: 1.285M
BUY POINT: New: 90.32; Breakout: $93.22 Volume=1.9M Target=$109.95 Stop=$88.32
POSITION: FQS IR - Sept. $90c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/eqix.html
Play Date: 05/06/2008
LUK (Leucadia National--$52.77; -0.56; optionable): Lumber, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/luk.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-21-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice test back to the 10 and 18 day EMA to end the week, showing a tight doji Friday on lower trade. Solid trade Tuesday, and looking for volume to spike back up as LUK rebounds. To recap: Working in a four week trading range after surging to start April, breaking from a 5.5 month base. Volume surged Tuesday as LUK moved off the 18 day EMA near the lows in the trading rang and bumped at the breakout point. Looking to use the breakout from the range on continued solid volume as our entry point on this strong like oak play.
Volume: 865.296K Avg Volume: 975.427K
BUY POINT: $54.38 Volume=1M Target=$62.55 Stop=$51.88
POSITION: LUK IK - Sept. $55c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/luk.html
Play Date: 05/06/2008
TTEK (Tetra Tech--$23.25; -0.22; optionable): Consulting, engineering, construction services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ttek.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-30-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice doji at the 10 day EMA once more on low volume. The move is set up. To recap: Gapped out of a 6 month cup base to start the month, rising some seriously good earnings higher. It has come back to test that move on lower and lower volume, tapping at the 10 day EMA (22.65) on the Tuesday low before rebounding. May snug up a bit more toward the 10 day EMA, but a nice pullback, and when it bounces to continue the breakout we are going to step in and ride its services higher.
Volume: 394.324K Avg Volume: 586.057K
BUY POINT: $23.65 Volume=900K Target=$28.45 Stop=$22.55
POSITION: TQI IX - Sept. $22.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ttek.html
Play Date: 05/03/2008
UTHR (United Therapeutics--$89.87; -0.90; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uthr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Faded further Friday, tapping at the 18 day EMA on the low and recovering to hold the 10 day EMA. Volume remained low and below average volume, just what you want on a pullback. Nice setup and just waiting for the bounce on rising trade to show us it is ready for the buy. To recap: Nice gap higher on volume with its earnings, clearing a 14 week base that formed at the bottom of a larger 5 month pattern. Held at the 200 day SMA on the lows of the pattern, showing key institutional support at that level. This base also filled a huge gap from early November on good news about one of its products. Excellent money flow, and strong volume Thursday and Friday as it started the move. Looking to move in as UTHR continues higher.
Volume: 561.49K Avg Volume: 642.429K
BUY POINT: $91.21 Volume=850K Target=$104.95 Stop=$87.65
POSITION: FUH HR - Aug. $90c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/uthr.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
trend trading stock
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