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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/10/2008
GOOG (Google--$573.20; -9.81; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/goog.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-17-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. GOOG gapped higher on is mid-April earnings and rallied through the 200 day SMA (568) to start the month before fading back to test this past week. Volume faded on the test and GOOG held just over the 200 day Friday, settling at the 10 day EMA. Very nice test of the move and of support at the key 200 day SMA. It gapped lower in February and the gap up in April is an island reversal, a bullish signal that can run a long way before ever having to come back and fill the gap. Indeed we are looking for a run up toward the old highs if GOOG can show us some volume as it breaks higher off of this test.
Volume: 4.485M Avg Volume: 7.019M
BUY POINT: $583.31 Volume=10M Target=$695.00 Stop=$569.65
POSITION: GOO IR - Sept. $590c (45 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/goog.html
Play Date: 05/10/2008
SNDA (Shanda Interactive Ent.--$35.79; +1.90; optionable): Chinese internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/snda.html
EARNINGS: Late May (unconfirmed; announced prior at 2-26-08)
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Have been watching SNDA given the success of CTRP and SOHU, and after a spill lower on Wednesday it held the 18 day EMA on the low, showing a doji and then jumping higher Friday on even stronger volume. Nicely formed 6 month base and after that quick shakeout Wednesday it looks as if it is going to give us some upside similar to the other plays on the report. Cool.
Volume: 907.167K Avg Volume: 864.17K
BUY POINT: $36.62 Volume=1.3M Target=$43.95 Stop=$34.06
POSITION: QKU IG - Sept. $35c (61 delta, 291 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/snda.html
Play Date: 05/10/2008
SVNT (Savient Pharma--$24.60; +0.70; optionable): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/svnt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-7-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Volume is swelling on the upside sessions this month as SVNT puts the finishing touches on its 18 week base that is setting it up for a breakout to a new high and a run from there. Solid earnings and money flow is leading higher. Just looking for SVTN to extend this move and give us the buy on some good volume. Very nice.
Volume: 1.411M Avg Volume: 1.259M
BUY POINT: $25.02 Volume=2M Target=$30.65 Stop=$23.27
POSITION: UVP IE - Sept. $25c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/svnt.html
Play Date: 05/10/2008
VRSN (Verisign--$37.90; +1.14; optionable): Internet registration, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrsn.html
EARNINGS: 5-8-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Another stock we were monitoring but did not want to get in front of it with earnings. That would have been no issue; reported solid results and surged higher Friday on strong volume. Closed just below the 'hump' in the pattern at 38, but excellent action and ready for the breakout. When it makes the move we will move in.
Volume: 10.859M Avg Volume: 3.555M
BUY POINT: $38.12 Volume=4.5M Target=$47.85 Stop=$36.38
POSITION: QVR IU - Sept. $37.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/vrsn.html
New buy point on current positions: Just about ready to add to or to start new positions.
Play Date: 05/10/2008
CTRP (Ctrip.com International--$64.92; -1.13; optionable): Chinese online travel services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctrp.html
EARNINGS: 5-14-08 after the close
STATUS: Test breakout. Big surge to start the month, breaking out from its 5 month base formed by making higher lows off the 200 day SMA. Made us some great money and then gapped lower to the 10 day EMA Wednesday, hugging there until Friday. Looking for CTRP to resume its move and when it does that is when we move in.
Volume: 584.882K Avg Volume: 893.333K
BUY POINT: $66.11 Volume=1.2M Target=$75.95 Stop=$63.89
POSITION: QCT IM - Sept. $65c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ctrp.html
Play Date: 05/10/2008
GNK (Genco Shipping & Trading--$75.26; -0.62; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gnk.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-30-08
STATUS: Breakout test. After blasting higher to start the month by clearing a 6 month reverse head and shoulders base, GNK has returned to test the move, tapping at the 10 day EMA on the Thursday and Friday lows before bouncing back. Nice action indicating buyers moving in at support. Looking for a break higher to move into some more or new positions.
Volume: 655.867K Avg Volume: 922.083K
BUY POINT: $76.08 Volume=1M Target=$90.95 Stop=$72.94
POSITION: GNK GO - July $75c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gnk.html
Play Date: 05/10/2008
KSU (Kansas City Southern--$45.90; -1.14; optionable): Railroads
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/ksu.html
EARNINGS: 7-31-08
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. KSU is making the second test of the mid-April breakout from a big 11 month base. A strong stock with a strong breakout move such as KSU will make 4 to 5 bounces up the 10 or 18 day EMA before needing to test lower, typically toward the 50 day EMA. It spent last week fading to the 10 day EMA (45.61), holding that level on low volume. This is its second test so there is still plenty of upside in front of it. When it bounces on rising trade we move in.
Volume: 876.898K Avg Volume: 1.127M
BUY POINT: $46.85 Volume=1.2M Target=$54.88 Stop=$44.89
POSITION: KSU II - Sept. $45c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ksu.html
New buy point on current position:
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/08/2008
ANSS (Ansys--$43.39; +0.49; optionable): Technical software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anss.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice jump Friday, and just needs a bit more trade as it continues the move. To recap: Surged higher on its earnings to start the month, breaking out of a 17 week cup with handle base. Strong volume on the move and then tested back the past week on lower trade, showing few sellers. Great breakout to a new all-time high, nice test giving us a great entry point when it makes the break higher.
Volume: 556.854K Avg Volume: 892.468K
BUY POINT: $43.44 Volume=1M Target=$51.95 Stop=$41.77
POSITION: QUS GH - July $40c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/anss.html
Play Date: 05/06/2008
BCSI (Blue Coat Systems--$25.37; +0.27; optionable): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcsi.html
EARNINGS: Third week of May
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. Was on its way Friday but faded in the afternoon. Better volume and really looks good to make the break higher. To recap: Broke higher to start the month and has sidestepped the past two sessions, forming something of a handle to its 11 week base formed at the bottom of a long 7 month downtrend. Could call this a trend reversal as well. Either way, it is cracking over the 90 day SMA, setting up what looks to be the start of a nice recovery. Great volume on the upside sessions, clearing the March peak, the 'hump' in the short pattern. Ready to step in as it continues higher on a jump in volume.
Volume: 1.352M Avg Volume: 1.269M
BUY POINT: $25.42 Volume=1.4M Target=$31.85 Stop=$23.64
POSITION: IYU GE - July 25c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bcsi.html
Play Date: 05/07/2008
CX (Cemex SA--$28.51; +0.07; optionable): Cement
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-21-08
STATUS: Cup. Doji at the 200 day SMA on low volume. Locked and loaded to make the next break higher. To recap: A big leader in 2006 and to mid-2007, CX them peaked in June of that year and started the current long base. It bottomed in January and bounced, then moved laterally until starting higher to end April. A nice rounded bottom has formed, and the break above the 200 day SMA (28.17) Monday on stronger, above average volume was a key milestone. It added to the gain Tuesday then fell back to that support on Wednesday as volume fell back. This is a considerable base and thus is solid. Looking for CX to hold the bottom it has poured here and break higher off this support and continue a steady trend higher.
Volume: 3.058M Avg Volume: 5.288M
BUY POINT: $28.88 Volume=7M Target=$34.95 Stop=$27.89
POSITION: CIZ GE - July $25c (78 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cx.html
Play Date: 05/03/2008
EQIX (Equinix--$88.39; -0.27; optionable): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eqix.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-23-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Quietly moving along the 200 day SMA in a tight range. Just waiting for the break higher. To recap: Working laterally last week over the 200 day SMA (86.87) after gapping higher in late April on earnings. After that strong volume move it needed to consolidate, and this handle is doing that, preparing for the breakout from its 6 month base. Excellent action with money flow well out ahead of the price, rising even as price moves laterally. That divergence is going to lead to the breakout move.
Volume: 461.043K Avg Volume: 1.285M
BUY POINT: New: 90.32; Breakout: $93.22 Volume=1.9M Target=$109.95 Stop=$88.32
POSITION: FQS IR - Sept. $90c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/eqix.html
Play Date: 05/08/2008
ITU (Banco Itau--$27.69; -0.22; optionable): Foreign bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-6-08
STATUS: Breakout test. A doji at the 18 day EMA on Friday, holding over the February high. In position and just waiting for the move higher. To recap: Explosive move to end April and start May, surging to 32 and making us some very nice coin as it cleared its 4.5 month base and rallied. It has come back to test that move, selling down to the 18 day EMA (27.25) Wednesday and Thursday. Watching to see if ITU turns back up on some strong trade to start the move again. That is when we move in.
Volume: 3.675M Avg Volume: 6.136M
BUY POINT: $28.38 Volume=7.5M Target=$34.00 Stop=$27.05
POSITION: ITU IE - Sept. $25c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/itu.html
Play Date: 05/07/2008
MAN (Manpower--$66.99; +0.85; optionable): Staffing services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/man.html
EARNINGS: 4-18-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Gapped to the 18 day EMA on the Friday open but recovered for a gain on rising, above average volume. Nice. Ready to make its move. To recap: MAN is in an 11 month cup base that bottomed in January, worked laterally for 2.5 months and then gapped higher in mid-April on its strong earnings. Rallied on up to 70 on that move. It is now testing, fading to the 10 day EMA (66.68) Tuesday and Wednesday, holding above that level in a narrow range as volume swelled toward average. Nice set up with money flow moving higher ahead of price. Looking for more volume as it comes off of this test of near support.
Volume: 1.004M Avg Volume: 894.984K
BUY POINT: $68.45 Volume=1.2M Target=$78.95 Stop=$66.48
POSITION: MAN IM - Sept. $65c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/man.html
Play Date: 05/08/2008
NTES (Netease.com--$23.25; +0.59; optionable): Chinese internet content
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ntes.html
EARNINGS: Late May
STATUS: Breakout test. Held the 10 day EMA on the test and jumped back up Friday on average volume. Maybe too cautious; if it continues higher it is a buy. To recap: Blasted higher in late April, gapping out of a 5.5 month base on strong, above average volume. Rallied up to 24 on the high and now testing this week, coming back to the 10 day EMA (22.54) on the Thursday low. Looking for it to hold at this near support and resume the breakout run. That is when we move in.
Volume: 995.381K Avg Volume: 1.093M
BUY POINT: On a continued move higher on decent trade (orig. $23.11) Volume=1.5M Target=$28.95 Stop=$22.31
POSITION: NQG IX - Sept. $22.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ntes.html
Play Date: 05/06/2008
TTEK (Tetra Tech--$23.25; -0.22; optionable): Consulting, engineering, construction services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ttek.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-30-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice doji at the 10 day EMA once more on low volume. The move is set up. To recap: Gapped out of a 6 month cup base to start the month, rising some seriously good earnings higher. It has come back to test that move on lower and lower volume, tapping at the 10 day EMA (22.65) on the Tuesday low before rebounding. May snug up a bit more toward the 10 day EMA, but a nice pullback, and when it bounces to continue the breakout we are going to step in and ride its services higher.
Volume: 394.324K Avg Volume: 586.057K
BUY POINT: $23.65 Volume=900K Target=$28.45 Stop=$22.55
POSITION: TQI IX - Sept. $22.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ttek.html
Play Date: 05/08/2008
ULTI (Ultimate Software--$35.02; -0.10; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/ulti.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-30-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Tapped the 10 day EMA on the low once more and rebounded to close flat. Low volume test looks completed. Now just a move higher on rising trade. To recap: Exploded higher to start the month on strong volume as earnings shot it out of the cannon, breaking it out of a 6 month double bottom base. Explosive move that is now testing on very light, below average trade, coming back to the 10 day EMA Wednesday and Thursday, bouncing off that level Thursday. Nice test of the breakout and ready to move in as ULTI continues the rebound on some better trade.
Volume: 136.266K Avg Volume: 237.773K
BUY POINT: $35.72 Volume=325K Target=$42.95 Stop=$33.94
POSITION: TTA GG - July $35c (57 delta, 102 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ulti.html
Play Date: 05/05/2008
VIV (Vivo Participaceos--$6.93; -0.01; optionable): Brazilian cellular service
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/viv.html
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice tap at the 18 day EMA on the Friday low and then bouncing to flat. Very low trade. Excellent set up for the next break higher. To recap: VIV broke sharply higher last Thursday, clearing a 9 week ascending base on very strong trade. Rallied to 7.79 on the move Friday, then came back Monday on much lower, below average volume. Looking for a hold of this breakout though it may come back some more before it is ready to make the next break higher. Want to be ready, however, for when it turns back up from this test.
Volume: 1.545M Avg Volume: 4.68M
BUY POINT: $7.16 Volume=5.5M Target=$8.95 Stop=$6.77
POSITION: VIV GU - July $7.50c (53 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/viv.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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