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trade stock, stock recommendation
Beign part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/12/2008
DSX (Diana Shipping--$33.62; +1.04; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dsx.html
EARNINGS: 5-14-08 time not verified
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice lateral move the past week over the 10 day EMA after Diana broke over the February peak, the 'hump' in its 6.5 month base. Big mover in October 2007 on a big breakout, and DSX is set up after this nice base to make another strong run. Volume is up the past week; like swelling volume as DSX sets up for the move. Looks very good and though it is an earnings play we are willing to move in ahead of the announcement.
Volume: 1.776M Avg Volume: 1.407M
BUY POINT: $34.12 Volume=2.1M Target=$42.95 Stop=$32.11
POSITION: DSX IF - Sept. $30c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dsx.html
Play Date: 05/12/2008
EXM (Excel Maritime Carriers--$50.52; +5.37; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/exm.html
EARNINGS: 5-19-08, no time given
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle breakout. Surging on strong volume Monday as EXM breaks over the highs in the handle to its 7 month base. Big volume the past month as EXM moved up to form the last part of its base and then the big Monday volume as it surged higher. Strong break and looking to take some positions as it continues higher, and then add to the position when it tests this breakout move. Very nice base, very strong break higher.
Volume: 3.19M Avg Volume: 1.184M
BUY POINT: $50.78 Volume=1.5M Target=$74.95 Stop=$47.23
POSITION: EXM IJ - Sept. $50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/exm.html
Play Date: 05/12/2008
MICC (Millicom Cellular--$119.19; +2.85; optionable): Central and South American, African, Asian mobile telephony
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/micc.html
EARNING: 7-22-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Broke higher to start the month, moving up to the middle of its 6 month base. After that move it slid laterally the past week, waiting for the 10 day EMA (114.63) to rise to meet it and send it higher on its next move. Strong money flow is leading higher and MICC is ready to follow that money higher and to a new high. Very nice.
Volume: 470.147K Avg Volume: 899.189K
BUY POINT: $120.42 Volume=1.3M Target=$143.95 Stop=$115.55
POSITION: CQD GD - July $120c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/micc.html
Play Date: 05/12/2008
SINA (Sina.com--$51.05; +3.05; optionable): Chinese internet services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sina.html
EARNINGS: 5-14-08 after the close
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Strong breakout Monday as SINA clears the handle in its 7 month base. Excellent pattern and volume started to head up ahead of the price, showing it was under accumulation. Surging money flow is leading the move higher and we are looking to take some positions on a continued move higher then see how earnings come out and pick up some more on a successful test. Chinese stocks are performing quite well as an emerging leadership group.
Volume: 2.63M Avg Volume: 1.226M
BUY POINT: $51.39 Volume=1.3M Target=$59.95 Stop=$47.95
POSITION: NOQ IJ - Sept. $50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sina.html
Play Date: 05/12/2008
XIDE (Exide Tech--$14.13; +0.66; optionable): Industrial electrical equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xide.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. After a February breakout form a 7 month base, XIDE rallied up the 18 day EMA (now at 14.19), making 4 runs up that near term support and almost doubling before needing a deeper test to reset and continue the move. It came back to the 50 day EMA (13.23) on that test, holding above that level the past week. Monday volume jumped as XIDE jumped off this support. Looking to move in as XIDE continues higher off the test of this support, looking for it to continue the run up the near support.
Volume: 1.529M Avg Volume: 1M
BUY POINT: $14.28 Volume=1.2M Target=$17.24 Stop=$13.28
POSITION: FRU IC - Sept. $15c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/xide.html
Play Date: 05/12/2008
XRAY (Dentsply--$41.30; +0.54; optionable): Dental instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xray.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-08
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. Gapped higher to start the month on some strong earnings, moving past the middle of the pattern at the early April peak. Nicely formed 4.5 month base with its up and down motion to really shake out the sellers. Nice surge on the earnings, and then a lower volume, full test where it filled the gap. That is out of the way now, and Monday XRAY was surging higher on strong volume, clearing the 200 day SMA (40.73). Money flow is exploding higher ahead of price, dragging price along with it. Looking to move in as XRAY continues this move higher. Plenty of room to run for us and make us some nice green.
Volume: 1.647M Avg Volume: 1.312M
BUY POINT: $41.48 Volume=1.6M Target=$47.95 Stop=$40.22
POSITION: XEQ GH - July $40c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/xray.html
New buy point on current position:
Play Date: 05/12/2008
BBD (Banco Bradesco--$23.33; +0.64; optionable): Foreign regional banks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbd.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-29-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Surged higher to end April and begin May, surging up to 24 on the high before testing back to the 18 day EMA (22.52) the past week. Already banked some gain on this puppy, and ready to move in as it bounces back up from this test to continue its breakout run. Have to like that.
Volume: 8.232M Avg Volume: 9.665M
BUY POINT: $23.48 Volume=10M Target=$27.95 Stop=$22.39
POSITION: BBD IX - Sept. $22.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bbd.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/06/2008
BCSI (Blue Coat Systems--$24.86; -0.51; optionable): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcsi.html
EARNINGS: Third week of May
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. Still looking for the break higher as BCSI paused Monday on lower trade after trying the move on Friday. Still solid, just awaiting the break higher. To recap: Broke higher to start the month and has sidestepped the past two sessions, forming something of a handle to its 11 week base formed at the bottom of a long 7 month downtrend. Could call this a trend reversal as well. Either way, it is cracking over the 90 day SMA, setting up what looks to be the start of a nice recovery. Great volume on the upside sessions, clearing the March peak, the 'hump' in the short pattern. Ready to step in as it continues higher on a jump in volume.
Volume: 939.571K Avg Volume: 1.268M
BUY POINT: $25.42 Volume=1.4M Target=$31.85 Stop=$23.64
POSITION: IYU GE - July 25c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/bcsi.html
Play Date: 05/03/2008
EQIX (Equinix--$89.18; +0.79; optionable): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eqix.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-23-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Bounded off the 200 day SMA after testing that on the low, posting a nice gain. Volume did not jump with it, however. Just looking for the move on some trade to give us a buy. To recap: Working laterally last week over the 200 day SMA (86.87) after gapping higher in late April on earnings. After that strong volume move it needed to consolidate, and this handle is doing that, preparing for the breakout from its 6 month base. Excellent action with money flow well out ahead of the price, rising even as price moves laterally. That divergence is going to lead to the breakout move.
Volume: 471.404K Avg Volume: 1.253M
BUY POINT: New: 90.32; Breakout: $93.22 Volume=1.9M Target=$109.95 Stop=$88.32
POSITION: FQS IR - Sept. $90c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/eqix.html
Play Date: 05/08/2008
ITU (Banco Itau--$28.30; +0.61; optionable): Foreign bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-6-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Breaking higher off the 18 day EMA on rising but still below average volume. Looks ready, willing, and able to make the move. To recap: Explosive move to end April and start May, surging to 32 and making us some very nice coin as it cleared its 4.5 month base and rallied. It has come back to test that move, selling down to the 18 day EMA (27.25) Wednesday and Thursday. Watching to see if ITU turns back up on some strong trade to start the move again. That is when we move in.
Volume: 3.986M Avg Volume: 6.065M
BUY POINT: $28.38 Volume=7.5M Target=$34.00 Stop=$27.05
POSITION: ITU IE - Sept. $25c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/itu.html
Play Date: 05/10/2008
KSU (Kansas City Southern--$46.78; +0.88; optionable): Railroads
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/ksu.html
EARNINGS: 7-31-08
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. Holding the 10 day EMA on low volume in a very nice, orderly test. Just needs some volume on this move higher to get into more positions. To rcap: is making the second test of the mid-April breakout from a big 11 month base. A strong stock with a strong breakout move such as KSU will make 4 to 5 bounces up the 10 or 18 day EMA before needing to test lower, typically toward the 50 day EMA. It spent last week fading to the 10 day EMA (45.61), holding that level on low volume. This is its second test so there is still plenty of upside in front of it. When it bounces on rising trade we move in.
Volume: 645.191K Avg Volume: 1.125M
BUY POINT: $46.85 Volume=1.2M Target=$54.88 Stop=$44.89
POSITION: KSU II - Sept. $45c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ksu.html
Play Date: 05/10/2008
SNDA (Shanda Interactive Ent.--$36.50; +0.71; optionable): Chinese internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/snda.html
EARNINGS: Late May (unconfirmed; announced prior at 2-26-08)
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Rallying on Monday, but just needs some volume to push it onto the breakout and give us a nice entry point as another China stock sets up for a run higher. To recap: Have been watching SNDA given the success of CTRP and SOHU, and after a spill lower on Wednesday it held the 18 day EMA on the low, showing a doji and then jumping higher Friday on even stronger volume. Nicely formed 6 month base and after that quick shakeout Wednesday it looks as if it is going to give us some upside similar to the other plays on the report. Cool.
Volume: 571.262K Avg Volume: 868.741K
BUY POINT: $36.62 Volume=1.3M Target=$43.95 Stop=$34.06
POSITION: QKU IG - Sept. $35c (61 delta, 291 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/snda.html
Play Date: 05/06/2008
TTEK (Tetra Tech--$23.62; +0.37; optionable): Consulting, engineering, construction services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ttek.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-30-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Tapping the 10 day EMA on the low and bouncing higher again, just waiting on some stronger trade. Very nice. To recap: Gapped out of a 6 month cup base to start the month, rising some seriously good earnings higher. It has come back to test that move on lower and lower volume, tapping at the 10 day EMA (22.65) on the Tuesday low before rebounding. May snug up a bit more toward the 10 day EMA, but a nice pullback, and when it bounces to continue the breakout we are going to step in and ride its services higher.
Volume: 336.834K Avg Volume: 585.621K
BUY POINT: $23.65 Volume=900K Target=$28.45 Stop=$22.55
POSITION: TQI IX - Sept. $22.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ttek.html
Play Date: 05/10/2008
VRSN (Verisign--$37.96; +0.06; optionable): Internet registration, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrsn.html
EARNINGS: 5-8-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Strong volume again Monday as VRSN was all over the map, testing the 10 day EMA on the low and rebounding on the close. Nice setup and just looking for the break higher to stock. To recap: Another stock we were monitoring but did not want to get in front of it with earnings. That would have been no issue; reported solid results and surged higher Friday on strong volume. Closed just below the 'hump' in the pattern at 38, but excellent action and ready for the breakout. When it makes the move we will move in.
Volume: 6.821M Avg Volume: 3.598M
BUY POINT: $38.12 Volume=4.5M Target=$47.85 Stop=$36.38
POSITION: QVR IU - Sept. $37.50c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/vrsn.html
Play Date: 05/08/2008
ULTI (Ultimate Software--$35.34; +0.32; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/ulti.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-30-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Moving up on stronger but still below average volume, but ULTI is right on the verge of breaking higher and giving us that entry point. To recap: Exploded higher to start the month on strong volume as earnings shot it out of the cannon, breaking it out of a 6 month double bottom base. Explosive move that is now testing on very light, below average trade, coming back to the 10 day EMA Wednesday and Thursday, bouncing off that level Thursday. Nice test of the breakout and ready to move in as ULTI continues the rebound on some better trade.
Volume: 188.498K Avg Volume: 232.876K
BUY POINT: $35.72 Volume=325K Target=$42.95 Stop=$33.94
POSITION: TTA GG - July $35c (57 delta, 102 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ulti.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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