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trend trading stock, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Plays:
Post-Split:
Play Date: 05/13/2008
CW (Curtiss Wright Corp.--$50.77; +2.77; optionable): Aerospace/defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cw.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-24-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle breakout. Strong volume Tuesday as CW jumped higher, clearing the handle in its 7 month base. Nice classic action with the second bottom undercutting the first. Broke over the 200 day SMA definitively to begin the month and just came back to test that move, tapping the 200 day on Friday and bouncing. Strong volume off that level shows big buyers moving in. Ready to start some positions as it continues the move and then will look for a test to add.
Volume: 521.59K Avg Volume: 359.392K
BUY POINT: $51.04 Volume=400K Target=$58.95 Stop=$48.55
POSITION: CW IJ - Sept. $50c (56 delta, 69 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cw.html
Play Date: 05/13/2008
JASO (JA Solar Holdings--$23.70; +1.60; optionable): Solar semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jaso.html
EARNINGS: 5-12-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Tested back to the 50 day EMA this month, forming a new handle to its 19 week base. Volume edged higher as it works toward the resumed breakout move, posting an above average trade as it bounced Tuesday. Will see if it can continue the upside momentum on continued solid trade.
Volume: 9.291M Avg Volume: 6.882M
BUY POINT: $24.31 Volume=10M Target=$29.25 Stop=$22.65
POSITION: QJP IX - Sept. $22.50c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jaso.html
Play Date: 05/13/2008
NOV (National Oilwell--$76.25; +0.20; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nov.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-30-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Strong surge off the 200 day SMA is now being tested with NOV reaching way down on Tuesday but then rebounding to hold the April peak on the close. Broke from a double bottom in mid-April, rallied to 75, then that test. Strong, strong volume on the surge higher to end last week and nice, below average volume on the test. May come back a bit more to test a bit more, but want to be ready to jump on it as NOV continues higher off of this test.
Volume: 5.709M Avg Volume: 5.981M
BUY POINT: $76.89 Volume=6.2M Target=$88.95 Stop=$74.57
POSITION: NOV HO - Aug. $75c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nov.html
Leader:
Play Date: 05/13/2008
V (Visa, Inc.--$82.38; +0.48; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/v.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-28-08
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Testing its April surge, coming back to test the 18 day EMA (79.70) on the Monday low and rebounded. First test after that big post-earnings run (its first one; a new issue in March), and looking to play it off of this test for the next run higher off of support.
Volume: 13.318M Avg Volume: 22.736M
BUY POINT: $83.66 Volume=25M Target=$99.75 Stop=$79.55
POSITION: V IP - Sept. $80c (62 delta) or V IQ - Sept. $85c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/v.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Still moving higher after a pause, still anticipating the second G iPhone
ATK: Testing the strong breakout move
ATW: No split announcement but setting up for its next move
BHP: Mid-May
CELG: Researching date
GD: Forecast July
GGB: Researching date
GILD: Researching date
IBM: Resuming the move higher.
JOYG: Researching date.
LSTR: Tentatively set mid-July
OTEX: No announcement with earnings
RIG: Forecast mid-May
RS: Mid-July
SCHN: Researching date, enjoying the run
VMI: Mid-July
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/13/2008
JEC (Jacobs Engineering--$93.94; +5.02; optionable): Engineering services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/j/jec.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-22-08
STATUS: Double bottom with handle breakout. Strong above average volume Tuesday as JEC broke higher out of the handle of its 18 week base. Very nicely formed pattern using the 200 day SMA on the low as support, then making a higher low with the handle at near support at the 18 day EMA. Nice and quiet action then bolting higher on strong volume as the sector enjoys good news, e.g. the FWLT earnings. That does not mean this is chopped liver; great pattern setting the foundation for a solid run after this breakout.
Volume: 2.425M Avg Volume: 1.692M
BUY POINT: $94.24 Volume=1.8M Target=$108.45 Stop=$88.89
POSITION: JEC GR - July $90c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/jec.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/08/2008
GD (General Dynamics--$92.91; +0.31; optionable): Aerospace/defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gd.html
EARNINGS: 7-23-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Continued higher Tuesday but volume tapered and it stalled the move just a bit. Still in good position to continue the break higher and a buy as it does. To recap: Volume swelled Tuesday and Wednesday as GD tested the 10 day EMA, the bottom of the handle to its 5.5 month base. After a nice break higher in April to finish the cup it worked laterally on lower, below average volume, forming the handle or shakeout that precedes the breakout. Nice price break higher Thursday, but volume backed off after two good sessions. Looking for more volume as it makes the breakout move. Very nice.
Volume: 1.891M Avg Volume: 1.924M
BUY POINT: New: On a continued move higher (orig. $91.88) Volume=2.9M Target=$103.95 Stop=$89.77
POSITION: GD HR - Aug. $90c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/gd.html
Play Date: 05/10/2008
KSU (Kansas City Southern--$47.33; +0.55; optionable): Railroads
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/ksu.html
EARNINGS: 7-31-08
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. Gapped higher on rising, average volume. If it can continue the move on decent trade it is a buy. To recap: KSU is making the second test of the mid-April breakout from a big 11 month base. A strong stock with a strong breakout move such as KSU will make 4 to 5 bounces up the 10 or 18 day EMA before needing to test lower, typically toward the 50 day EMA. It spent last week fading to the 10 day EMA (45.61), holding that level on low volume. This is its second test so there is still plenty of upside in front of it. When it bounces on rising trade we move in.
Volume: 1.168M Avg Volume: 1.131M
BUY POINT: New: On a continued move higher on more solid trade (orig. $46.85) Volume=1.2M Target=$54.88 Stop=$44.89
POSITION: KSU II - Sept. $45c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ksu.html
Play Date: 05/12/2008
MICC (Millicom Cellular--$120.14; +0.95; optionable): Central and South American, African, Asian mobile telephony
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/micc.html
EARNING: 7-22-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Bumping toward the next breakout, moving up to last week's high on low, below average volume. Still solid, still in position to make the next break higher, still nice. To recap: Broke higher to start the month, moving up to the middle of its 6 month base. After that move it slid laterally the past week, waiting for the 10 day EMA (114.63) to rise to meet it and send it higher on its next move. Strong money flow is leading higher and MICC is ready to follow that money higher and to a new high. Very nice.
Volume: 493.138K Avg Volume: 887.979K
BUY POINT: $120.42 Volume=1.3M Target=$143.95 Stop=$115.55
POSITION: CQD GD - July $120c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/micc.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/10/2008
CTRP (Ctrip.com International--$62.34; -0.40; optionable): Chinese online travel services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ctrp.html
EARNINGS: 5-14-08 after the close
STATUS: Test breakout. Nice tight doji at the 18 day EMA, indicating that this pullback to near support is just about over. Great; will pick it up as it bounces back up. To recap: Big surge to start the month, breaking out from its 5 month base formed by making higher lows off the 200 day SMA. Made us some great money and then gapped lower to the 10 day EMA Wednesday, hugging there until Friday. Looking for CTRP to resume its move and when it does that is when we move in.
Volume: 850.082K Avg Volume: 904.344K
BUY POINT: $66.11 Volume=1.2M Target=$75.95 Stop=$63.89
POSITION: QCT IM - Sept. $65c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ctrp.html
Play Date: 05/08/2008
ITU (Banco Itau--$27.96; -0.34; optionable): Foreign bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-6-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Still holding over near support at the 10 and 18 day EMA on low volume, still set up to make a new move. Just waiting for the move. To recap: Explosive move to end April and start May, surging to 32 and making us some very nice coin as it cleared its 4.5 month base and rallied. It has come back to test that move, selling down to the 18 day EMA (27.25) Wednesday and Thursday. Watching to see if ITU turns back up on some strong trade to start the move again. That is when we move in.
Volume: 3.904M Avg Volume: 5.95M
BUY POINT: $28.38 Volume=7.5M Target=$34.00 Stop=$27.05
POSITION: ITU IE - Sept. $25c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/itu.html
Play Date: 05/12/2008
XRAY (Dentsply--$41.07; -0.23; optionable): Dental instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xray.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-08
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. After breaking through the 200 day SMA Monday on strong volume XRAY paused Tuesday on much lower, below average volume, testing the 200 day SMA on the low and rebounding. As it continues the move higher, we move in. To recap: Gapped higher to start the month on some strong earnings, moving past the middle of the pattern at the early April peak. Nicely formed 4.5 month base with its up and down motion to really shake out the sellers. Nice surge on the earnings, and then a lower volume, full test where it filled the gap. That is out of the way now, and Monday XRAY was surging higher on strong volume, clearing the 200 day SMA (40.73). Money flow is exploding higher ahead of price, dragging price along with it. Looking to move in as XRAY continues this move higher. Plenty of room to run for us and make us some nice green.
Volume: 1.072M Avg Volume: 1.31M
BUY POINT: $41.48 Volume=1.6M Target=$47.95 Stop=$40.22
POSITION: XEQ GH - July $40c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/xray.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/06/2008
BCSI (Blue Coat Systems--$25.06; +0.20; optionable): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bcsi.html
EARNINGS: Third week of May
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. Nice tight doji Tuesday, tapping the 90 day SMA on the low and rebounding. It is just about done with this lateral move. To recap: Broke higher to start the month and has sidestepped the past two sessions, forming something of a handle to its 11 week base formed at the bottom of a long 7 month downtrend. Could call this a trend reversal as well. Either way, it is cracking over the 90 day SMA, setting up what looks to be the start of a nice recovery. Great volume on the upside sessions, clearing the March peak, the 'hump' in the short pattern. Ready to step in as it continues higher on a jump in volume.
Volume: 952.431K Avg Volume: 1.27M
BUY POINT: $25.42 Volume=1.4M Target=$31.85 Stop=$23.64
POSITION: IYU GE - July 25c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bcsi.html
Play Date: 05/03/2008
EQIX (Equinix--$88.31; -0.87; optionable): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eqix.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-23-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Tried the move Tuesday but backed off, testing lower then rebounding. Showing some life; when it wakes up we move in. To recap: Working laterally last week over the 200 day SMA (86.87) after gapping higher in late April on earnings. After that strong volume move it needed to consolidate, and this handle is doing that, preparing for the breakout from its 6 month base. Excellent action with money flow well out ahead of the price, rising even as price moves laterally. That divergence is going to lead to the breakout move.
Volume: 726.146K Avg Volume: 1.246M
BUY POINT: New: 90.32; Breakout: $93.22 Volume=1.9M Target=$109.95 Stop=$88.32
POSITION: FQS IR - Sept. $90c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/eqix.html
Play Date: 05/06/2008
LUK (Leucadia National--$53.72; +0.55; optionable): Lumber, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/luk.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-21-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Great volume the past two sessions as it holds near support and bounces, ever so close to the breakout. Nice. To recap: Working in a four week trading range after surging to start April, breaking from a 5.5 month base. Volume surged Tuesday as LUK moved off the 18 day EMA near the lows in the trading rang and bumped at the breakout point. Looking to use the breakout from the range on continued solid volume as our entry point on this strong like oak play.
Volume: 1.268M Avg Volume: 991.286K
BUY POINT: $54.38 Volume=1M Target=$62.55 Stop=$51.88
POSITION: LUK IK - Sept. $55c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/luk.html
Play Date: 05/10/2008
SNDA (Shanda Interactive Ent.--$36.41; -0.09; optionable): Chinese internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/snda.html
EARNINGS: Late May (unconfirmed; announced prior at 2-26-08)
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Holding steady Tuesday at the early May highs before that quick trip down and back to the 18 day EMA. This is where it needs to make the break. To recap: Have been watching SNDA given the success of CTRP and SOHU, and after a spill lower on Wednesday it held the 18 day EMA on the low, showing a doji and then jumping higher Friday on even stronger volume. Nicely formed 6 month base and after that quick shakeout Wednesday it looks as if it is going to give us some upside similar to the other plays on the report. Cool.
Volume: 558.333K Avg Volume: 870.871K
BUY POINT: $36.62 Volume=1.3M Target=$43.95 Stop=$34.06
POSITION: QKU IG - Sept. $35c (61 delta, 291 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/snda.html
Play Date: 05/10/2008
SVNT (Savient Pharma--$24.66; +0.65; optionable): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/svnt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-7-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. On the cusp of the breakout move, moving right to the edge. Looks ready. To recap: Volume is swelling on the upside sessions this month as SVNT puts the finishing touches on its 18 week base that is setting it up for a breakout to a new high and a run from there. Solid earnings and money flow is leading higher. Just looking for SVTN to extend this move and give us the buy on some good volume. Very nice.
Volume: 965.552K Avg Volume: 1.259M
BUY POINT: $25.02 Volume=2M Target=$30.65 Stop=$23.27
POSITION: UVP IE - Sept. $25c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/svnt.html
Play Date: 05/06/2008
TTEK (Tetra Tech--$24.01; +0.39; optionable): Consulting, engineering, construction services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/ttek.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-30-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Made a more definitive move Tuesday, but volume did not, coming in way below average yet. Need to see a bit more trade as it moves up, and if so we move in. To recap: Gapped out of a 6 month cup base to start the month, rising some seriously good earnings higher. It has come back to test that move on lower and lower volume, tapping at the 10 day EMA (22.65) on the Tuesday low before rebounding. May snug up a bit more toward the 10 day EMA, but a nice pullback, and when it bounces to continue the breakout we are going to step in and ride its services higher.
Volume: 313.875K Avg Volume: 580.583K
BUY POINT: New: On a continued move higher on better trade (orig. $23.65) Volume=900K Target=$28.45 Stop=$22.55
POSITION: TQI IX - Sept. $22.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ttek.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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