|
|
trade stock, top stock pick
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New Pre-Announcement plays contained in that section.
Post-Split:
Play Date: 05/15/2008
DNR (Denbury Resources--$33.77; +0.27; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dnr.html
EARNINGS: 8-5-08
STATUS: Ascending triangle. Broke higher Tuesday, clearing the highs in its 5 month base that made higher and higher lows along the 200 day SMA. Volume was up on the break but it was not blowout. Tested back to the 10 day EMA on the Thursday low (32.67) and rebounded for a gain. Nice test and ready to move in as DNR continues higher on solid trade.
Volume: 2.157M Avg Volume: 2.281M
BUY POINT: $34.55 Volume=3.2M Target=$41.48 Stop=$32.55
POSITION: DNR IF - Sept. $30c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dnr.html
Play Date: 05/15/2008
DO (Diamond Offshore--$135.30; +6.01; optionable): Offshore drilling rigs.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/do.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-24-08
STATUS: Ascending base. Solid volume as DO bounced Tuesday and Thursday off of intraday tests of the 50 day EMA. Thursday the move stuck and DO cleared its May highs on very solid above average volume. There is still the April high at 140 hit before this test, but like the strong trade as it makes the break from this 2 week lateral range. This puppy can fly when it gets a head of steam.
Volume: 3.098M Avg Volume: 2.08M
BUY POINT: $135.77 Volume=2.2M Target=$155.95 Stop=$131.77
POSITION: DO IG - Sept. $135c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/do.html
Play Date: 05/15/2008
STLD (Steel Dynamics--$36.37; +1.89; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stld.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-21-08
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Nice surge February to late April; got a pop on the earnings, but as it had already run, that news was used to take STLD back to the 50 day EMA (34.22) where it bottomed twice this month. Best volume in a month Thursday as STLD broke higher off this key support level. Looking to move in as it continues this bounce off support.
Volume: 5.5M Avg Volume: 4.447M
BUY POINT: $36.65 Volume=5.5M Target=$43.95 Stop=$34.21
POSITION: RQL HG - Aug. $35c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/stld.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Still moving higher after a pause, still anticipating the second G iPhone
ATK: Testing the strong breakout move
ATW: No split announcement but setting up for its next move
BHP: Mid-May
CELG: Researching date
GD: Forecast July
GGB: Researching date
GILD: Researching date
IBM: Resuming the move higher.
JEC: Mid-July
JOYG: Researching date.
LSTR: Tentatively set mid-July
OTEX: No announcement with earnings
RIG: Forecast mid-May
RS: Mid-July
SCHN: Researching date, enjoying the run
VMI: Mid-July
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/15/2008
BHI (Baker Hughes--$82.47; +2.51; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bhi.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-22-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders or Double bottom w/handle. Either one and you have a good pattern. Volume jumped Thursday as BHI jumped off the 200 day SMA at that acted as support the past 4 weeks as the stock worked laterally, forming that right shoulder or handle to its 8 month base. Like that volume spike and looking for more as it continues the break higher. We move in on that.
Volume: 5.352M Avg Volume: 4.379M
BUY POINT: $82.78 Volume=6.5M Target=$95.65 Stop=$79.11
POSITION: BHI GP - July $80c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bhi.html
Play Date: 05/15/2008
CLB (Core Labs--$134.69; +2.61; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/clb.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-23-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. CLB has formed a base within a larger base, a short 5 week double bottom with handle over the 200 day SMA inside of a 7 month cup base of sorts. Great volume Tuesday as it surged higher off of that support level, a pause Wednesday, and then back up Thursday on once more above average volume. Looking quite solid here, something of a core holding in the energy service sector. Looking for a break higher on solid trade.
Volume: 262.863K Avg Volume: 213.271K
BUY POINT: $135.28 Volume=325K Target=$152.95 Stop=$130.85
POSITION: CLB IG - Sept. $135c (52 delta, 237 OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/clb.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/14/2008
APH (Amphenol Corp.--$46.74; +0.26; optionable): Electrical, fiber optic connectors, coax, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aph.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-17-08
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Nice tap at the 18 day EMA on the Thursday low and a rebound, working on the nice test. It is set to pop. To recap: Gapped higher in April on earnings, clearing the handle in a 15 week double bottom with handle base. This is the first test of the breakout and run higher, tapping at the 18 day EMA (46) the prior three sessions, holding that near support nicely. Solid base that sets APH up for a new high. It rallied to that then backed off to test after a good initial breakout run. It is ready to make the next move and as it break higher we will be ready to move in.
Volume: 633.363K Avg Volume: 1.165M
BUY POINT: $47.38 Volume=1.8M Target=$54.95 Stop=$45.88
POSITION: APH GI - July $45c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aph.html
Play Date: 05/08/2008
ITU (Banco Itau--$28.40; +0.74; optionable): Foreign bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-6-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Volume jumped up just above average Thursday for the first time in a week as ITU tapped the 18 day EMA on the low and bounced. Looks ready to rock and role, foreign bank style. To recap: Explosive move to end April and start May, surging to 32 and making us some very nice coin as it cleared its 4.5 month base and rallied. It has come back to test that move, selling down to the 18 day EMA (27.25) Wednesday and Thursday. Watching to see if ITU turns back up on some strong trade to start the move again. That is when we move in.
Volume: 5.827M Avg Volume: 5.847M
BUY POINT: New: On a continued solid move from here (orig. $28.38) Volume=7.5M Target=$34.00 Stop=$27.05
POSITION: ITU IE - Sept. $25c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/itu.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/14/2008
EDU (New Oriental Education & Tech--$77.67; -0.35; optionable): Chinese management education
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/edu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-16-08
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Took a personal moment Thursday on very low trade after the strong Wednesday surge. That is fine, that is fine; it gives EDU a quick rest before it breaks higher. May take another day or two of personal time before it continues higher, but so we will just wait and let it show us the move. To recap: Breaking higher hard off the 50 day EMA test this week, surging on solid volume Wednesday. This is part of a 5.5 month base, just making the breakout Wednesday as it cleared the early March peak hit prior to the 50 day EMA test. Strong move and looking to move into some positions as it continues the break higher and then pick up some more to complete the buy when it makes a successful test, i.e. comes back after this move to test near support, holds it, and starts to bounce again.
Volume: 318.232K Avg Volume: 600.035K
BUY POINT: $78.48 Volume=650K Target=$90.31 Stop=$73.88
POSITION: EDU GO - July $75c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/edu.html
Play Date: 05/14/2008
MCHP (Microchip--$37.88; +1.12; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mchp.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-28-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Gapped lower to the 18 day EMA but then rebounded to post an impressive gain, making it to the top of its range. Looks super and just need to see the breakout on strong trade. To recap: MCHP is working its way through a long 13 month base. Strong break higher to end April on its earnings but a quick test back this month, holding near support at the 18 day EMA (36.43) this past week on low, below average volume. Volume started back up Wednesday, and after this test we are looking for MCHP to make the break higher and give us the buy. Very nice and just need to be patient and let MCHP show us the start of the move and then we move in.
Volume: 3.379M Avg Volume: 3.112M
BUY POINT: $38.31 Volume=4.7M Target=$44.38 Stop=$36.32
POSITION: GMT GG - July $35c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mchp.html
Play Date: 05/10/2008
SVNT (Savient Pharma--$24.15; +0.18; optionable): Biotech
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/svnt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-7-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Big surge of volume Wednesday but it could not make the move stick (price surged as well). Tight doji at the 10 day EMA on Thursday on lower trade; looks ready. To recap: Volume is swelling on the upside sessions this month as SVNT puts the finishing touches on its 18 week base that is setting it up for a breakout to a new high and a run from there. Solid earnings and money flow is leading higher. Just looking for SVTN to extend this move and give us the buy on some good volume. Very nice.
Volume: 1.151M Avg Volume: 1.312M
BUY POINT: $25.02 Volume=2M Target=$30.65 Stop=$23.27
POSITION: UVP IE - Sept. $25c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/svnt.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
trade stock
top stock pick
|
