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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New plays:
Upside: A good variety of tech, construction, metals
Play Date: 05/17/2008
ASML (ASML Holdings--$30.30; +0.14; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asml.html
EARNINGS: 7-16-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nice run from mid-2006 through October 2007 needed a consolidation. ASML has set up a nice 5.5 month base to digest the run and lay the foundation for a new breakout and run. Has moved laterally the past three weeks, forming the handle to the base right at the 200 day SMA (29.31). Bounced to end last week, bumping at the breakout but not quite the volume it needs. Good volume, just not a blast of buying. Money flow has turned up ahead of price as it works laterally and looking for ASML to follow it this week. Very nice pattern, great set up.
Volume: 2.872M Avg Volume: 3.154M
BUY POINT: $30.49 Volume=4.5M Target=$36.78 Stop=$29.22
POSITION: MFQ GF - July $30c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/asml.html
Play Date: 05/17/2008
MTRX (Matrix Service--$24.80; +0.24; optionable): Construction, repair services for US, Canadian petroleum and power industries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mtrx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-3-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Strong surge to start May, moving up to form the right side of a 6.5 month base. Spent the last half of the week working laterally on low volume, forming a handle to the base. In a combination area where it benefits from all of the oil and gas activity yet doesn't have to worry about drilling and production. Money flow is running strong ahead of price and that typically means an upside breakout. May take a few more days to set up for the breakout. Just going to be patient and let the breakout come to us.
Volume: 181.497K Avg Volume: 362.844K
BUY POINT: $25.05 Volume=550K Target=$29.95 Stop=$23.44
POSITION: QXW HE - Aug. $25c (56 delta, 121 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mtrx.html
Play Date: 05/17/2008
PCLN (Priceline.com--$135.49; -3.06; optionable): Online travel and hotel services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcln.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-8-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Gapped higher on its earnings, giving us a nice gain that we took on that move, figuring it would not get any better before a test. PCLN is now making that test, coming back to the 10 day EMA (134) on mostly lower volume. Looking for a solid bounce off of this level to give us a new buy point as we look for a run similar to November where PCLN did the same thing with the gap higher, the test, and then another big run.
Volume: 1.343M Avg Volume: 1.603M
BUY POINT: $135.77 Volume=1.8M Target=$155.95 Stop=$133.65
POSITION: PNE GG - July $135c (56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pcln.html
Play Date: 05/17/2008
SLT (Sterlite Industries--$21.82; +0.90; optionable): Copper production in India
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slt.html
EARNINGS: Nothing confirmed but may announce this week.
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Strong volume Friday as SLT rallied toward the breakout from its 16 week base. Made it right up to the neckline in the pattern to end the week, and a break higher this coming week looks imminent, particularly with money flow leading the way higher. Very nice and shiny, like money.
Volume: 1.782M Avg Volume: 903.306K
BUY POINT: $22.24 Volume=1.2M Target=$27.95 Stop=$20.68
POSITION: SLT ID - Sept. $20c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/slt.html
Play Date: 05/17/2008
VIP (Vimple Communication--$33.59; +0.98; optionable): Russian wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vip.html
EARNINGS: Announced 3-12-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nicely formed 12 week pattern has formed inside a larger 5 month base, forming the double bottoms near the 200 day SMA (31.65), bouncing to start the month, then working laterally back to the 10 day EMA the past week. Bounced Friday on some better volume, just clearing the 90 day SMA. Poised to make the move higher and deliver a breakout. Really like how VIP has plenty of room overhead to run and makes us some great money without having to plow new ground. A strong runner in 2007 that peaked in late December, VIP has now set up a nice base to give us a good entry point when it jumps back up on strong trade.
Volume: 2.898M Avg Volume: 3.297M
BUY POINT: $34.24 Volume=4.5M Target=$39.95 Stop=$32.24
POSITION: VIQ GF - July $30c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/vip.html
Play Date: 05/17/2008
VSEA (Varian Semiconductor--$40.01; -0.68; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsea.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-24-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Announced earnings in late April and surged higher on strong volume, forming the second leg of a classic double bottom. After the run VSEA worked laterally for a couple of weeks. Letting the 10 day EMA catch up with it. VSEA broke out Wednesday and added some gain Thursday before a test back to the 200 day SMA Friday, holding that level. Strong volume on that break higher and lower, below average volume trade on the test. Nice break higher, nice hold of the 200 day SMA support. Now all it has to do for us to move in is to continue the breakout move. Plenty of room overhead to run and our initial target is just that; if it is running hard when it gets there we will take some gain and let it keep on running for us.
Volume: 1.455M Avg Volume: 1.529M
BUY POINT: $40.92 Volume=1.8M Target=$48.95 Stop=$38.55
POSITION: UES HH - Aug. $40c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/vsea.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/14/2008
APH (Amphenol Corp.--$47.40; +0.66; optionable): Electrical, fiber optic connectors, coax, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aph.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-17-08
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Gapped higher Friday on rising but still below average volume. Nice hold at the 18 day EMA and just needs more trade for a good buy. To recap: Gapped higher in April on earnings, clearing the handle in a 15 week double bottom with handle base. This is the first test of the breakout and run higher, tapping at the 18 day EMA (46) the prior three sessions, holding that near support nicely. Solid base that sets APH up for a new high. It rallied to that then backed off to test after a good initial breakout run. It is ready to make the next move and as it break higher we will be ready to move in.
Volume: 984.25K Avg Volume: 1.165M
BUY POINT: On a continued move higher on solid trade (orig. $47.38) Volume=1.8M Target=$54.95 Stop=$45.88
POSITION: APH GI - July $45c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aph.html
Play Date: 05/12/2008
BBD (Banco Bradesco--$23.40; +0.33; optionable): Foreign regional banks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bbd.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-29-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped higher Friday on another strong volume session, but it went nowhere after that initial gap off the 18 day EMA. Nice full test and it is ready; as it continues higher we move in. To recap: Still testing the 18 day EMA, showing stronger, above average volume. Has spent a week testing and still set to make the next run higher. To recap: Surged higher to end April and begin May, surging up to 24 on the high before testing back to the 18 day EMA the past week. Already banked some gain on this puppy, and ready to move in as it bounces back up from this test to continue its breakout run. Have to like that.
Volume: 11.228M Avg Volume: 9.617M
BUY POINT: $23.48 Volume=10M Target=$27.95 Stop=$22.39
POSITION: BBD IX - Sept. $22.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bbd.html
Play Date: 05/03/2008
EQIX (Equinix--$89.11; -0.88; optionable): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eqix.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-23-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still solid to move higher as money flow is way out in front of price. Showed some life last week but it needs to show volume as it makes the break. Very quiet trade in the handle, and that is what you want. To recap: Working laterally for two weeks over the 200 day SMA (86.80) after gapping higher in late April on earnings. After that strong volume move it needed to consolidate, and this handle is doing that, preparing for the breakout from its 6 month base. Excellent action with money flow well out ahead of the price, rising even as price moves laterally. That divergence is going to lead to the breakout move.
Volume: 427.008K Avg Volume: 1.156M
BUY POINT: New: 90.32; Breakout: $93.22 Volume=1.9M Target=$109.95 Stop=$88.32
POSITION: FQS IR - Sept. $90c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/eqix.html
Play Date: 05/08/2008
ITU (Banco Itau--$28.65; +0.25; optionable): Foreign bank
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/itu.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-6-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped higher similar to BBD though volume was not as solid. Solid, and if it can continue from here on volume it is a buy. To recap: Explosive move to end April and start May, surging to 32 and making us some very nice coin as it cleared its 4.5 month base and rallied. It has come back to test that move, selling down to the 18 day EMA (27.25) Wednesday and Thursday. Watching to see if ITU turns back up on some strong trade to start the move again. That is when we move in.
Volume: 4.984M Avg Volume: 5.847M
BUY POINT: $28.38 Volume=7.5M Target=$34.00 Stop=$27.05
POSITION: ITU IE - Sept. $25c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/itu.html
Play Date: 05/14/2008
MCHP (Microchip--$38.13; +0.25; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mchp.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-28-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Bumping up at the breakout point, getting some better trade Wednesday and Thursday, but stalling Friday. In position to make the move, just need to see it show us the break higher. To recap: MCHP is working its way through a long 13 month base. Strong break higher to end April on its earnings but a quick test back this month, holding near support at the 18 day EMA (36.43) this past week on low, below average volume. Volume started back up Wednesday, and after this test we are looking for MCHP to make the break higher and give us the buy. Very nice and just need to be patient and let MCHP show us the start of the move and then we move in.
Volume: 2.448M Avg Volume: 3.112M
BUY POINT: $38.31 Volume=4.7M Target=$44.38 Stop=$36.32
POSITION: GMT GG - July $35c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mchp.html
Play Date: 05/12/2008
MICC (Millicom Cellular--$119.15; -1.08; optionable): Central and South American, African, Asian mobile telephony
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/micc.html
EARNING: 7-22-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Tried the break last week but no volume, and it was back down to end the week, tapping the 10 day EMA on the low and rebounding to cut some losses. Still an excellent pattern, just needs some volume as it turns back to the upside. Nice, just needs to show the move. To recap: Broke higher to start the month, moving up to the middle of its 6 month base. After that move it slid laterally the past week, waiting for the 10 day EMA (117.65) to rise to meet it and send it higher on its next move. Strong money flow is leading higher and MICC is ready to follow that money higher and to a new high. Very nice.
Volume: 531.793K Avg Volume: 859.87K
BUY POINT: $120.42 Volume=1.3M Target=$143.95 Stop=$115.55
POSITION: CQD GD - July $120c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/micc.html
Play Date: 05/14/2008
PKI (Perkinelmer--$27.95; -0.31; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pki.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-24-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. After the strong move Wednesday PKI spent two sessions testing on very low, below average volume. May come back a bit more but nice surge, nice test, and looking for a nice renewal of the breakout. To recap: Strong volume Wednesday as PKI clears the three week handle to its 9 month base, moving to challenge its October 2007 high, a move that would take it to a 9 year high. Very nice pattern to set the foundation for that move. Great volume and as PKI continues we are looking to move in and see how far it will take us.
Volume: 773.602K Avg Volume: 1.046M
BUY POINT: $28.48 Volume=1.2M Target=$32.95 Stop=$27.08
POSITION: PKI IE - Sept. $25c (71 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pki.html
Play Date: 05/08/2008
ULTI (Ultimate Software--$34.79; -0.44; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/ulti.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-30-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Friday ULTI sold all the way to the 18 day EMA intraday and then staged a solid rebound. Maybe that is the final shakeout that sets it for the jump higher to continue its breakout move. To recap: Exploded higher to start the month on strong volume as earnings shot it out of the cannon, breaking it out of a 6 month double bottom base. Explosive move that is now testing on very light, below average trade, coming back to the 10 day EMA Wednesday and Thursday, bouncing off that level Thursday. Nice test of the breakout and ready to move in as ULTI continues the rebound on some better trade.
Volume: 207.194K Avg Volume: 228.924K
BUY POINT: $35.72 Volume=325K Target=$42.95 Stop=$33.94
POSITION: TTA GG - July $35c (57 delta, 102 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ulti.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
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