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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New plays:
Upside: A very interesting mix of stocks stepping into position:
Play Date: 05/19/2008
AMSC (American Superconductor--$30.33; -0.50; optionable): The name says it: superconducting materials
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amsc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-8-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Exploded higher on its earnings news, breaking sharply from an 18 week cup with handle base of sorts. Came quickly back to test the break, holding the 18 day EMA (28.16) last week and bouncing. Monday it surged higher on strong volume, but it could not hold the move; what is new with this market. Still very solid, looking for a 7 year high on a resumption of the breakout move. Definitely the climate for what this world needs. What we need is a resumption of the breakout move to give us a buy.
Volume: 1.404M Avg Volume: 778.705K
BUY POINT: $31.03 Volume=1.2M Target=$36.95 Stop=$28.49
POSITION: QAY GF - July $30c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/amsc.html
Play Date: 05/19/2008
CMZ (Compton Petroleum--$12.64; +0.58; no options): Oil and gas drilling, exploration
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cmz.html
EARNINGS: 5-12-08
STATUS: Ascending. Volume jumped above average Monday as CMZ broke higher, clearing the highs at 12.25 that marked the top of its 12 week base formed making higher lows above the 50 day EMA (11.51). Part of a larger 13 month base that has set the foundation for a run toward the old high over 16 hit when CMZ became public in late 2005. Clearing that mid-2007 high is an important move, opening the door to a run at that prior high.
Volume: 316.902K Avg Volume: 221.206K
BUY POINT: $12.77 Volume=300K Target=$15.45 Stop=$11.88
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/cmz.html
Play Date: 05/19/2008
CNQR (Concur Technologies--$38.73; +1.10; optionable): Corporate expense management software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnqr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-30-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Gapped higher Monday on strong volume, resuming the early May breakout move from its 17 week base. Reverse head and shoulders January through April, then a break higher to clear the base. It has tested back to near support at the 18 day EMA (36.36) and is making the next move higher on that strong trade. Money flow is surging ahead of the stock as well and we are ready to move in as CNQR continues this move higher. Top earnings growth rates to go along with this great pattern.
Volume: 1.561M Avg Volume: 770.702K
BUY POINT: $39.12 Volume=1M Target=$46.95 Stop=$37.21
POSITION: JCQ HG - Aug. $35c (73 delta), 141OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cnqr.html
Play Date: 05/19/2008
CRL (Charles River Labs--$65.00; -0.03; optionable): When you read the bio it talks about products and services assisting research. It breeds rats for lab testing.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/crl.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-6-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle breakout. Strong volume Friday as CRL broke sharply higher on a surge in above average volume, pushing past the early May highs hit on the move after earnings. Paused Monday, but is in excellent position to make the next break higher toward a new high after notching that level in January. Strong money flow is surging higher ahead of price, and looking for CRL to continue on.
Volume: 1.049M Avg Volume: 736.339K
BUY POINT: $65.72 Volume=1M Target=$75.65 Stop=$62.88
POSITION: CRL HM - Aug. $65c (54 delta, 34 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/crl.html
Play Date: 05/19/2008
ISIL (Intersil Holdings--$29.23; +1.08; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/isil.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-16-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Surging higher Monday, gapping up on the strongest volume in a month. Very nicely formed 8 month base with a great handle where the volume dried up to end April and early May. Excellent action and the chips are really moving well. ISIL is the next one to move well.
Volume: 4.349M Avg Volume: 2.651M
BUY POINT: $29.55 Volume=2.8M Target=$33.95 Stop=$27.84
POSITION: UFH GE - July $25c (86 delta) or UFH JF - Oct. $30c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/isil.html
Play Date: 05/19/2008
KWK (Quicksilver Resources--$39.55; +0.35; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kwk.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-7-08
STATUS: 50 day EMA test. Made us a pile of cash on its last runs. KWK broke out in early February from a 12 week pattern. It surged then tested the 50 day EMA in late March. It held and rallied again for a dozen points. It has slipped back to test this month, coming back to tap at the 50 day EMA (38.50) on the intraday lows and snapping back. Just waiting for it to make a surge back over the 18 day EMA (40.14) on solid trade. Then we move in and catch the next run off this key support level.
Volume: 1.846M Avg Volume: 2.183M
BUY POINT: $40.32 Volume=3M Target=$47.95 Stop=$38.34
POSITION: KWK IH - Sept. $40c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/kwk.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/14/2008
APH (Amphenol Corp.--$47.11; -0.29; optionable): Electrical, fiber optic connectors, coax, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aph.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-17-08
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Still set to make the break higher, holding the 10 day EMA after gapping higher Friday. In good shape, just waiting on the move. To recap: Gapped higher in April on earnings, clearing the handle in a 15 week double bottom with handle base. This is the first test of the breakout and run higher, tapping at the 18 day EMA (46) the prior three sessions, holding that near support nicely. Solid base that sets APH up for a new high. It rallied to that then backed off to test after a good initial breakout run. It is ready to make the next move and as it break higher we will be ready to move in.
Volume: 956.984K Avg Volume: 1.161M
BUY POINT: On a continued move higher on solid trade (orig. $47.38) Volume=1.8M Target=$54.95 Stop=$45.88
POSITION: APH GI - July $45c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aph.html
Play Date: 05/17/2008
ASML (ASML Holdings--$29.81; -0.49; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asml.html
EARNINGS: 7-16-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Quiet volume as ASML continues working laterally over the 10 and 200 day SMA. A bit more work before making the break higher. To recap: Nice run from mid-2006 through October 2007 needed a consolidation. ASML has set up a nice 5.5 month base to digest the run and lay the foundation for a new breakout and run. Has moved laterally the past three weeks, forming the handle to the base right at the 200 day SMA (29.31). Bounced to end last week, bumping at the breakout but not quite the volume it needs. Good volume, just not a blast of buying. Money flow has turned up ahead of price as it works laterally and looking for ASML to follow it this week. Very nice pattern, great set up.
Volume: 2.093M Avg Volume: 3.151M
BUY POINT: $30.49 Volume=4.5M Target=$36.78 Stop=$29.22
POSITION: MFQ GF - July $30c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/asml.html
Play Date: 05/03/2008
EQIX (Equinix--$89.04; -0.07; optionable): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eqix.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-23-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Doji at the 200 day SMA as EQIX continues working laterally as money flow continues to surge higher. Waiting for that money flow to show it is strong enough, and when EQIX breaks higher we have our buy point. To recap: Working laterally for two weeks over the 200 day SMA (86.80) after gapping higher in late April on earnings. After that strong volume move it needed to consolidate, and this handle is doing that, preparing for the breakout from its 6 month base. Excellent action with money flow well out ahead of the price, rising even as price moves laterally. That divergence is going to lead to the breakout move.
Volume: 650.839K Avg Volume: 1.136M
BUY POINT: New: 90.32; Breakout: $93.22 Volume=1.9M Target=$109.95 Stop=$88.32
POSITION: FQS IR - Sept. $90c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/eqix.html
Play Date: 05/14/2008
MCHP (Microchip--$37.53; -0.60; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mchp.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-28-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Faded back to the 10 day EMA on the close, but low volume so no dumping as MCHP continues setting up for the break higher. A higher low here sets the move. To recap: MCHP is working its way through a long 13 month base. Strong break higher to end April on its earnings but a quick test back this month, holding near support at the 18 day EMA (36.43) this past week on low, below average volume. Volume started back up Wednesday, and after this test we are looking for MCHP to make the break higher and give us the buy. Very nice and just need to be patient and let MCHP show us the start of the move and then we move in.
Volume: 2.002M Avg Volume: 3.092M
BUY POINT: $38.31 Volume=4.7M Target=$44.38 Stop=$36.32
POSITION: GMT GG - July $35c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mchp.html
Play Date: 05/17/2008
MTRX (Matrix Service--$24.67; -0.13; optionable): Construction, repair services for US, Canadian petroleum and power industries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mtrx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-3-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice tight doji on low volume as MTRX continues working laterally, waiting for the 10 day EMA (23.71) to catch up to it. When it does that is likely to send MTRX higher. To recap: Strong surge to start May, moving up to form the right side of a 6.5 month base. Spent the last half of the week working laterally on low volume, forming a handle to the base. In a combination area where it benefits from all of the oil and gas activity yet doesn't have to worry about drilling and production. Money flow is running strong ahead of price and that typically means an upside breakout. May take a few more days to set up for the breakout. Just going to be patient and let the breakout come to us.
Volume: 187.132K Avg Volume: 355.544K
BUY POINT: $25.05 Volume=550K Target=$29.95 Stop=$23.44
POSITION: QXW HE - Aug. $25c (56 delta, 121 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mtrx.html
Play Date: 05/14/2008
PKI (Perkinelmer--$28.46; +0.51; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pki.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-24-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Volume bounced back up to just above average as PKI tapped the 10 day EMA on the session low and posted a gain into the close. Looks nice and on a continued break higher it is a buy. To recap: Strong volume Wednesday as PKI clears the three week handle to its 9 month base, moving to challenge its October 2007 high, a move that would take it to a 9 year high. Very nice pattern to set the foundation for that move. Great volume and as PKI continues we are looking to move in and see how far it will take us.
Volume: 1.181M Avg Volume: 1.053M
BUY POINT: $28.48 Volume=1.2M Target=$32.95 Stop=$27.08
POSITION: PKI IE - Sept. $25c (71 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pki.html
Play Date: 05/08/2008
ULTI (Ultimate Software--$34.44; -0.35; optionable): Internet software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/ulti.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-30-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Still testing, tapping just below the 18 day EMA once more on the low and rebounding to cut its losses. Nice low trade, nice test. Just wan to see the bounce on rising trade. To recap: Exploded higher to start the month on strong volume as earnings shot it out of the cannon, breaking it out of a 6 month double bottom base. Explosive move that is now testing on very light, below average trade, coming back to the 10 day EMA Wednesday and Thursday, bouncing off that level Thursday. Nice test of the breakout and ready to move in as ULTI continues the rebound on some better trade.
Volume: 179.417K Avg Volume: 228.338K
BUY POINT: $35.72 Volume=325K Target=$42.95 Stop=$33.94
POSITION: TTA GG - July $35c (57 delta, 102 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ulti.html
Play Date: 05/17/2008
VSEA (Varian Semiconductor--$40.18; +0.17; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsea.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-24-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Still riding at the 200 day SMA, showing a nice tight doji on the candlestick chart at that point. Very nice test of that higher volume break through this level, so we are just waiting for it to show the test is over with a new break higher. To recap: Announced earnings in late April and surged higher on strong volume, forming the second leg of a classic double bottom. After the run VSEA worked laterally for a couple of weeks. Letting the 10 day EMA catch up with it. VSEA broke out Wednesday and added some gain Thursday before a test back to the 200 day SMA Friday, holding that level. Strong volume on that break higher and lower, below average volume trade on the test. Nice break higher, nice hold of the 200 day SMA support. Now all it has to do for us to move in is to continue the breakout move. Plenty of room overhead to run and our initial target is just that; if it is running hard when it gets there we will take some gain and let it keep on running for us.
Volume: 1.474M Avg Volume: 1.521M
BUY POINT: $40.92 Volume=1.8M Target=$48.95 Stop=$38.55
POSITION: UES HH - Aug. $40c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/vsea.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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