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us stock market, stock split
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Post-Split:
Play Date: 05/20/2008
ANSS (Ansys--$44.02; +0.03; optionable): System software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/anss.html
EARNINGS: 5-1-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Making another run at ANSS. It broke higher to start the month, breaking out of a 4 month base on strong volume. It made its first test the following week, holding the 10 day EMA (44.09) and then bolting higher once more. It is now making the next test, coming back to tap at the 18 day EMA on the Tuesday low and then rebounding to close flat. Looking for stronger volume as ANSS resumes the upside move. Strong breakout, good test, and ready to move again.
Volume: 451.385K Avg Volume: 918.975K
BUY POINT: $44.58 Volume=1M Target=$52.95 Stop=$43.05
POSITION: QUS GH - July $40c (72 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/anss.html
Play Date: 05/20/2008
FWLT (Foster Wheeler--$77.36; +0.55; optionable): Heavy construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fwlt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-7-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Nice strong volume surge last week finished the right side of its 5 month base, rallying to 80, the February peak, the 'hump' in the pattern. It matched that level and has faded toward the 10 day EMA (74.31), tapping toward that on the Tuesday low and then rebounding for a modest gain. Very low volume shakeout setting up the next breakout and run for FWLT.
Volume: 2.236M Avg Volume: 3.836M
BUY POINT: $78.22 Volume=5M Target=$93.95 Stop=$74.89
POSITION: UFG HW - Aug. $77.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fwlt.html
Play Date: 05/20/2008
MDR (McDermott Intl.--$61.16; +2.17; optionable): Heavy construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mdr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-12-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. MDR has moved up to the neckline in its 7 month base, bouncing off the 200 day SMA this month in a short double bottom base. Volume has swelled the past few upside sessions, showing accumulation and ready to show us the breakout move. Very solid.
Volume: 2.563M Avg Volume: 2.477M
BUY POINT: $61.78 Volume=3.5M Target=$71.95 Stop=$58.45
POSITION: MDR HL - Aug. $60c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mdr.html
Play Date: 05/20/2008
WGOV (Woodward Governor--$38.55; -0.64; optionable): Energy control and optimization solutions for engines
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wgov.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-21-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Gapped higher last week, breaking out from a 5 month base on very strong volume, moving to a new all-time high. Nice lower volume test (though still high), and looking to move in after the test is over.
Volume: 1.688M Avg Volume: 584.462K
BUY POINT: $38.89 Volume=1M Target=$44.85 Stop=$36.89
POSITION: GUP GG - July $35c (74 delta, 66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wgov.html
Leader plays:
Play Date: 05/20/2008
DSX (Diana Shipping--$38.80; +0.74; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dsx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-14-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Tuesday DSX reached down to the 10 day EMA on the low and snapped back for a gain. Gapped higher last week, and this intraday move filled that gap and recovered. Looks ready to continue the advance in its large 7 month pattern. We are ready to move in as it makes the next move higher.
Volume: 3.137M Avg Volume: 1.551M
BUY POINT: $39.39 Volume=3.5M Target=$45.32 Stop=$36.63
POSITION: DSX IH - Sept. $40c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dsx.html
Play Date: 05/20/2008
EXM (Excel Maritime Carriers--$55.03; +1.32; optionable): Shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/exm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-19-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Another shipper that surged then rolled over Monday after an upside gap. It tapped the 10 day EMA on the low and rallied right back. Looking for a continued move higher to give us the buy point as EXM rallies higher toward the October peak at 82.
Volume: 3.195M Avg Volume: 1.414M
BUY POINT: $55.68 Volume=3.5M Target=$74.95 Stop=$52.77
POSITION: EXM IK - Sept. $55c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/exm.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Still moving higher after a pause, still anticipating the second G iPhone
ATK: Testing the strong breakout move
ATW: No split announcement but making its next move higher to end the week
BHI: Tentatively set for late July
BHP: Mid-May
CELG: Researching date
CLB: A wildcard with no splits. Tentatively set for July
GD: Forecast July
GGB: Researching date. Flying higher.
GILD: Researching date
IBM: Great week for the Beemer
JEC: Mid-July
JOYG: Researching date.
LSTR: Tentatively set mid-July
MICC: Forecast third week of July
MTRX: Forecast early July
OTEX: No announcement with earnings
RIG: Forecast mid-May. Moving higher, split or not
RS: Mid-July
SCHN: Researching date, enjoying the run
VMI: Mid-July
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/17/2008
MTRX (Matrix Service--$24.49; -0.18; optionable): Construction, repair services for US, Canadian petroleum and power industries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mtrx.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-3-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Very nice tight lateral move in progress as the 10 day EMA (23.85) rises to meet it. Expecting that move to send MTRX higher once more. To recap: Strong surge to start May, moving up to form the right side of a 6.5 month base. Spent the last half of the week working laterally on low volume, forming a handle to the base. In a combination area where it benefits from all of the oil and gas activity yet doesn't have to worry about drilling and production. Money flow is running strong ahead of price and that typically means an upside breakout. May take a few more days to set up for the breakout. Just going to be patient and let the breakout come to us.
Volume: 189.556K Avg Volume: 353.041K
BUY POINT: $25.05 Volume=550K Target=$29.95 Stop=$23.44
POSITION: QXW HE - Aug. $25c (56 delta, 121 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mtrx.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/17/2008
ASML (ASML Holdings--$29.94; +0.13; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asml.html
EARNINGS: 7-16-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still working laterally over the 10 and 200 day SMA, ignoring the market selling as it sets up for its own personal breakout. Very nice set up and you have to like how it is not selling. To recap: Nice run from mid-2006 through October 2007 needed a consolidation. ASML has set up a nice 5.5 month base to digest the run and lay the foundation for a new breakout and run. Has moved laterally the past three weeks, forming the handle to the base right at the 200 day SMA (29.31). Bounced to end last week, bumping at the breakout but not quite the volume it needs. Good volume, just not a blast of buying. Money flow has turned up ahead of price as it works laterally and looking for ASML to follow it this week. Very nice pattern, great set up.
Volume: 2.837M Avg Volume: 3.173M
BUY POINT: $30.49 Volume=4.5M Target=$36.78 Stop=$29.22
POSITION: MFQ GF - July $30c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/asml.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/19/2008
CNQR (Concur Technologies--$38.19; -0.54; optionable): Corporate expense management software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnqr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-30-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Surged early but no volume Tuesday to carry the move. Nice hold of the 10 day EMA on low volume and still ready to make the move higher from this very nice pattern. To recap: Gapped higher Monday on strong volume, resuming the early May breakout move from its 17 week base. Reverse head and shoulders January through April, then a break higher to clear the base. It has tested back to near support at the 18 day EMA (36.36) and is making the next move higher on that strong trade. Money flow is surging ahead of the stock as well and we are ready to move in as CNQR continues this move higher. Top earnings growth rates to go along with this great pattern.
Volume: 526.039K Avg Volume: 768.728K
BUY POINT: $39.12 Volume=1M Target=$46.95 Stop=$37.21
POSITION: JCQ HG - Aug. $35c (73 delta), 141OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cnqr.html
Play Date: 05/03/2008
EQIX (Equinix--$89.76; +0.72; optionable): Telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eqix.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-23-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Still waiting. Low volume, tight flat lateral consolidation. To recap: Working laterally for two weeks over the 200 day SMA (86.80) after gapping higher in late April on earnings. After that strong volume move it needed to consolidate, and this handle is doing that, preparing for the breakout from its 6 month base. Excellent action with money flow well out ahead of the price, rising even as price moves laterally. That divergence is going to lead to the breakout move.
Volume: 519.565K Avg Volume: 1.133M
BUY POINT: New: 90.32; Breakout: $93.22 Volume=1.9M Target=$109.95 Stop=$88.32
POSITION: FQS IR - Sept. $90c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/eqix.html
Play Date: 05/19/2008
ISIL (Intersil Holdings--$28.69; -0.54; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/isil.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-16-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Back down from the Monday surge on strong volume, fading on slightly lower trade. Good test back to the 10 day EMA on the low (29.29) and then rebounding to cut the losses. Still in great position to make the breakout stick. To recap: Surging higher Monday, gapping up on the strongest volume in a month. Very nicely formed 8 month base with a great handle where the volume dried up to end April and early May. Excellent action and the chips are really moving well. ISIL is the next one to move well.
Volume: 3.951M Avg Volume: 2.68M
BUY POINT: $29.55 Volume=2.8M Target=$33.95 Stop=$27.84
POSITION: UFH GE - July $25c (86 delta) or UFH JF - Oct. $30c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/isil.html
Play Date: 05/14/2008
MCHP (Microchip--$37.18; -0.35; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mchp.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-28-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Looks like a low volume shakeout as MCHP tests the 18 day EMA and rebounded. Still holding the handle, still solid and looking to make the break higher. To recap: MCHP is working its way through a long 13 month base. Strong break higher to end April on its earnings but a quick test back this month, holding near support at the 18 day EMA (36.43) this past week on low, below average volume. Volume started back up Wednesday, and after this test we are looking for MCHP to make the break higher and give us the buy. Very nice and just need to be patient and let MCHP show us the start of the move and then we move in.
Volume: 1.996M Avg Volume: 3.068M
BUY POINT: $38.31 Volume=4.7M Target=$44.38 Stop=$36.32
POSITION: GMT GG - July $35c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mchp.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock split
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