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Begin Part 2 of 2
Online Investment Seminars with Investment House! Starting March 30 Investment House and Jon Johnson bring our 7 part online series back. You learn the basics, technical analysis, options, covered calls, stock splits, LEAPS, using stop losses, and more. Cut through the hype to what the market is telling you about which way it is going to go.
BONUS for Investment House subscribers: Order any package by March 15 and receive FREE CD's for the seminars! Reference quality manuals and CD's of the courses allow you to review and refresh whenever necessary to take advantage of the market moves.
http://www.stockseminarsonline.com/signup_m.asp
Hope to see you online!
Weekly Economic Calendar (All times Eastern). The figures are the consensus expectations, not ours.
3-11-02
Wholesale Inventories, January (10:00): -0.2% actual versus -0.5% expected and -0.5 prior (revised from -0.6%).
3-13-02
Retail Sales, February (8:30): 0.9% versus -0.2% prior.
Retail Sales, ex-auto, February (8:30): 0.5% versus 1.2% prior.
3-14-02
Business Inventories, January (8:30): -0.4% versus -0.4% prior.
Initial Claims, 3/9 (8:30): 375K versus 376K prior.
Export Prices ex-ag., February (8:30): 0.1% versus 0.1% prior.
Import Prices, ex-oil, February (8:30): 0.1% versus 0.1% prior.
Current Account, Q4 (8:30): -$101.5B versus -$95.0B prior.
3-15-02
PPI, February (8:30): 0.1% versus 0.1% prior.
Core PPI, February (8:30): 0.1% versus -0.1% prior.
Industrial Production, February (9:15): 0.2% versus -0.1% prior.
Capacity Utilization, February (9:15): 74.3% versus 74.2% prior.
Mich. Sentiment-Prel., March (9:45): 93.0 versus 90.7 prior.
TEAM TRADES
VVUS: Va-va-voom. Issued the alert and then just watched it sail on up without acting on it. You know, one of the things you have to do when you see the move you are looking for is act.
SWK: A recent favorite, we were looking for SWK to give us another chance for a good move. It had sold back to and tested the 18 day MVA on Monday, and today it started up off of that level. We could have jumped on it right off the bat, but with the market as it was we waited for it to move up over 50 and show us some decent volume. Well, right after noon CT it cleared 50 on good volume. It had been in an intraday ascending wedge and broke out. We should have jumped in right there. This was its first bounce off the 18 day MVA following its solid breakout in late February. We waited, however, to let some more volume come in; it cleared 50.50, ran to 50.65. It came back to 50.50 and held. We moved in at that point. It started back up over the next hour but then got caught in the selling before rebounding to close right at our buy point. Volume was good and the sector is doing well; it can give us another 20% we think.
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information. A "prior high" refers to the high at the start of a base.
For conserving space on listings of stop losses, the symbol (7%) indicates that the stop is 7% below the buy point.
Good movers: Got some good ones today. Huge breakout from VVUS! CVH broke out of the cup with handle on good volume, as did DGX. INVN broke out as well, and remains a buy up to 49.44 on this move! PPD continued its new bounce (from the 10 day MVA) but on lower volume. CNMD tested the breakout at the first of the month, moved higher but laterally until today, giving a nice move over previous March high resistance.
Targets hit Tuesday: ARDI (8.20)
Stop Advisory: LNY (22.32)
Stocks/Indexes from Monday's report:
VRST: Looked ready to break out of the 10-month cup with handle but pulled back on lower volume Tuesday. Holding above its buy point which is good action.
ATK: Pulled back further in the test of breakout, closing again above support (10 day MVA).
UNTD: Still tight and still holding above 7 in the flying plateau. Lower volume.
LYTS: Another tightening pattern in the test of the breakout.
Continued Plays: Still like GAP (3-06), SBUX (3-07), SNS (3-06).
HARB: Put the finishing touches on the breakdown of the pennant. Never hit the buy point.
HRLY: Testing the breakout from the cup with handle. Holding support at 19 as volume remains volatile and needs to level out.
PEGS: Still like this play; the stock opened at its 18 day MVA and moved up. Volume was just higher (still well below average) and PEGS looks ready to bounce from here in the test of the cup with handle breakout.
PENN: Tapped near the 50 day MVA on the low at 32.50, support since January, and bounced back over the 18 day MVA on rising, above average volume. Looks like it is trying to put together a bounce here. New buy point (aggressive) is 35.90 on continued rising volume, stock and/or July $30 calls to buy.
UNTD: Hit the buy point of 7.20 on the intraday high (flying plateau). Volume continued to decrease and the stock pulled down to close at 7.08. Still like the pattern.
Best Plays:
1) PPDI: Moving toward a breakout!
2) RKY: Ready for a move up.
3) HDI: Cup with handle.
New plays:
PPDI (Pharmaceutical Prod Dev--$33.42; +1.62; optionable): Health Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/ppdi.html
STATUS: Making a nice move up in a 7-month ascending wedge pattern, and looking ready for a breakout. Volume shot higher (607,900; avg. 609,000) as the stock used the 18 day MVA for support (31.67) on the solid move up. The pattern is inside a 9-month cup base, and a breakout would help complete the upper right side of the base. Showing strong money flow, and we're looking for the breakout over upper resistance at the 34 range. Target: 42
BUY POINT: Breakout: 34.59 on volume of 822,000 or higher. Stop Advisory (7%): 32.17
POSITION: Stock and/or July $25 or $30 calls to buy (PJQ GE or GF).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ppdi.html
GWW (W.W.Grainger--$57.88; -0.62; optionable): Electronics Wholesale
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gww.html
STATUS: Another flying plateau pattern (we have seen a few of those in the last couple of months), formed after a breakout from a lateral consolidation that spanned most of February. Volume has fallen from the high breakout levels down below average, Tuesday down to 335,500 (avg. 452,400). Showing a tight doji on the low volume at its 10 day MVA (support for the last 4 days), GWW is preparing for another move up. The stock bounced from the 18 day MVA twice since it tested the 50 day MVA back in mid-December, and there is a chance it will pull back to that support (for now at 56.90) before making another move. However, it can give a good bounce from here as well. Strong money flow. Target: 71
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 58.90 on volume of 611,000 or higher. Stop Advisory (7%): 54.78
POSITION: Stock and/or July $55 calls to buy (GWW GK).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/gww.html
Updates:
SIMG (Silicon Image--$8.57; -0.13; no options): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/simg.html
STATUS: Testing the recent breakout from the 4-week ascending wedge pattern. Volume has fallen off nicely since the stock began to pullback from the breakout high (9.25), down Tuesday to 432,200 (avg. 566,200), and SIMG is holding support at the 10 day MVA, where it opened today at 8.20. Looking for a bounce and another strong move up, for new positions or for adding to those taken on the breakout. The stock has excellent money flow and buying. Target: 10.75
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 8.80 on volume of 570,000 or higher. Stop Advisory (7%): 8.18
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/simg.html
RKY (Adolph Coors--$61.75; +0.15; optionable): Beer
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rky.html
STATUS: RKY gave a nice run on a breakout from its 9-week cup with handle (covered 2-27), reaching a closing high of 62.81 at the top. Since then however, the stock has pulled back to support at the 10 day MVA, tapping at it the last 2 sessions as volume has slipped lower and lower in the kind of orderly pullback we love to see. However, volume today surged to 287,700 (avg. 312,400) as the stock showed a tight doji, and with that action RKY looks ready to change the tempo and move up from here. Money flow and buying are excellent. Target is 73.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 62 on continued rising volume (315,000 or higher). Stop Advisory (7%): 57.66
POSITION: Stock and/or July $55 calls to buy (RKY GK).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/rky.html
PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that look ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: DGX, FRX, LLL, MIK, APPB, IGT.
LLL ($110.97; +1.79): Saved itself after Monday's selling to below the 18 day MVA; the stock was back over the broken support and closed just above it. Volume was lower.
APPB ($34.12; -1.13): Fell to the up trendline noted in last night's report and bounced back up; volume was even stronger after that of Monday when APPB threatened to break the 50 day MVA, which it did in today's action. A continued bounce here will give a better exit point if the stock cannot get back over the 50 day on the move.
IGT ($62.88; -1.12): After Monday's selling, dropped to a low of 61.85 but bounced back to close at the top of its intraday range. However, that was on a gap lower anyway. The hammer doji can mean it will move up from here, but it still has the 50 day MVA to get back over (that it broke on yesterday's move). Will look for a higher sell point if it moves up to the 50 day and cannot break resistance.
FRX ($82.62; +1.32): Continued Monday's strong move, but volume did fall back (remaining above average), pulling FRX off the intraday high of 83.65. The stock hit resistance on the high (January high).
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: BBBY, SRCL
Neither covered tonight. SRCL held in the lateral pattern on even lower volume (still looks good) and we are still waiting for BBBY to break upper resistance or the lower support (up trendline). Holding steady for now on decreasing volume.
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: CSCO, SEBL, EMLX, BRCM, HDI, BRCD, BUD, AMGN, WMT, ORCL, HB, NOC
HDI (Harley-Davidson--$54.34; +0.13; optionable): Hawgs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hdi.html
STATUS: Has formed a nearly 6-week-long cup with handle after some selling dragged it off the January high (57) at the first of February. The stock has actually developed, in the last 7 days, a little ascending wedge pattern above support, the convergence of its 50 day MVA (simple) and the short term MVAs. Volume is low, though rising Tuesday as HDI bounce from the support (1.03 million; avg. 1.5 million). We are looking for a breakout from this new pattern, over resistance at the March high (55.81). The stock has good money flow. Target: 67
BUY POINT: Breakout: 55.91 on volume of 2.3 million or higher. Stop Advisory (7%): 52
POSITION: Stock and/or May $50 calls to buy (HDI EJ).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/hdi.html
SEBL ($36.55; -0.09): Looking interesting. Holding support at 35, from where it bounced up again Tuesday (did the same the previous 2 days). Has some resistance at the 37.21 range, but once the decreasing volume hikes back up, SEBL can try for a breakout from this 6-week cup. The right side of it was formed on a breakout from a little double bottom at the floor. For positions taken at 37.31 on a breakout, stock and/or May $32.50 calls to buy.
BRCM ($41.80; -2.15): After a decent run that took it over the 50 day MVA, the stock has pulled back 2 days on lower volume, Tuesday tapping that support on the intraday low. Showing a doji right at support (50 day MVA, simple, at 41.77), BRCM is getting ready for another move up, market willing. Has pulled back from the March high at 45.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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yahoo stock
us stock market
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