stock split, stock recommendation

Begin Part 3 of 3 (not 4)

POST SPLITS BEST PLAYS:
1) GILD - Looking for a move after the pullback
2) MGAM - Making a move

GILD (Gilead Sciences--$35.74; -0.36): Split 2:1 effective March 8.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gild.html
STATUS: Holding on the lower volume pullback, today showing a doji right on the 10 day MVA, which is at the level of its January high within its jagged saucer pattern. Volume was again down at 1.32 million (average 2.24 million), and GILD tapped at its 18 day MVA at its low of 35.74. The pullback is a handle to the saucer, and we will see if it can give us a good move from here. Good buying. The recent high is 37.90.
PLAY: Aggressive: Over 36.50 on above average volume, with stock and/or May $32.50 calls to buy (GDQ EZ). Stop: 35.

MGAM (Multimedia Games--$32.70; +1.20; optionable): Split 3:2 on February 12.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mgam.html
STATUS: Nice push up today. MGAM has been making its choppy way up the 18 day MVA (29.97), most recently forming a little pennant after hitting a recent high of 33.74. It tapped the 18 day and then took off today, moving on very solid, increased volume of 426,000 (average 233,600). Looking for a continued move over the high, and will move the target out from 35 to 37 if we get a strong move over that point.
PLAY: Riding current positions. For new or additional positions, over 33.74 on continued strong volume, with stock and/or July $30 calls to buy (QMG GF - low open interest).

WATCHLISTS:

PRE-ANNOUNCEMENTS WATCHLIST: AROW, BMS, BRL, DRI, EXPD, GTK, MRBK, PDCO, RNR, SLM and STU.

DRI (Darden Restaurants--$37.41; -1.39; optionable): Restaurants.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dri.html
STATUS: Restaurants took it on the chin, and Monday DRI fell hard through its 50 day MVA (39.49), continuing down with big volume behind it. Today it gapped back and, after testing back up to 38.81, fell again, with huge volume behind it (3.06 million; average 820,000). The sector has been strong but restaurants are getting hit hard. We are riding positions to an initial target of 34, although we could see a drop to the 200 day MVA, at 31.97 currently. For new or additional positions we could look at a test back up toward the 50 day, followed by another drop.
BUY POINT: For new or additional positions, after a test toward 38-38.50, a drop back through 37 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: April $45 puts to buy (DRI PI - looking at a quick play with the near term expiration).

RUS (Russ Berrie--$31.47; +0.05; no options): Toys and games. Looking at a date in mid-April, and we are working to narrow that down.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/rus.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a split in 1993 at a stock price of $35. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: Has come back to the support of its 18 day MVA (31.36), continuing in its tight range. Volume has been light in the pattern and on this pullback (15,500; average 24,800). Still looks pretty good in a lateral consolidation that started as a pennant but which has shown a wider range of late. Looking for the breakout after this test of lower support. RUS broke out of a 2-month cup with handle in November and has moved more or less laterally up the 50 day MVA since then. It hit a high of 31.85 while moving in the present consolidation (high of 31.78 Friday). Target: 36.
BUY POINT: 31.95 on volume of 34,000. Stop: 30.25.
POSITOIN: Stock only.

IFIN ($76.60; +0.05): Looking at an announcement on 4-16 with earnings or with the 4-23 shareholder meeting. After its breakout from a small double bottom, IFIN is still looking good. It has shown consecutive dojis on decreasing volume, and we could see a test of 75, or a run from here. Still a buy on the breakout to 78 with above average (200,000) volume, with stock and/or July $70 calls to buy (FLQ GN - low open interest).

MUR ($88.11; +0.87): Forecast to announce a split 4-24-02 after the close, with earnings. Still looking good on a test back after its solid recent run. It made another break to a new high last week, but is holding up over the 10 day MVA (86.72), today bouncing slightly on low volume. From here, we can look at a move over 90 on volume of 300,000.

SUI ($39.84; -0.14): Forecast to announce a split with a board meeting on 4-01-02. Yet another loose doji today as SUI rests after its solid breakout move of last week. Holding and not continuing up for this length of time is a concern, so we will be on alert for a drop back. If we get a gentle pullback off of these dojis we are looking for it to hold 39.50, and look at additional positions on a move over 40, with stock.

ESI ($43.46; -0.02): Working on a date. Struggling a bit here, but the drop back Monday was on low volume and today it held on for a doji just under the 18 day MVA (43.53). We will see if it can rebound. Buy point is 45.45 on volume of 210,000, with stock and/or July $40 calls to buy (ESI GH - no open interest).

CYN ($52.59; +0.26): Forecast to announce a split with earnings 4-16-02 before the open. Big volume today on a slight move up, and off of the tight doji we could see a test of the 18 day MVA (51.19) before a continued move up.
POSITION: Stock and/or May $50 calls to buy (CYN EJ).

ACDO ($52.91; +1.21): Researching a new date. Bounced from the 50 day MVA (82.46), but on decreasing volume after the big gap back Friday. We will see if the stock can hold back in the range of its prior pattern. The high is 56.50.

AHC ($75.76; +0.71): Forecast to announce a split with earnings on April 24 (tentative date). Continues to drift up on light volume, which typically can spell a test back, with the support on this move at the 10 day MVA (72.88). We will look for it to set up again from that level.

CTAS ($48.20; -0.89): Researching a split date. Earnings are 3-14-02 before the open. Erratic now, but after its big retreat last week it is holding over the 50 day MVA (47.46). Not much of a pattern here.

DRS ($39.18; -0.72): Could not hold the 18 day (39.67), and is now dipping back toward the 50 day MVA (38.13). We will see if it can hold and set up a play.

XL ($93.88; +0.67): Working on an announcement date, but are looking at a board meeting the first week in April. Now testing the 50 day MVA (92.14). With the low volume we will see if it can hang on and generate a bounce.

PRE SPLITS WATCHLIST: DHI is still drifting up on its trend.

JEC ($70.00; +0.25): Splits 2:1 on April 2. Has pulled back to test its recent move, where it hit 72.96 before an abrupt drop. It is now holding the 10 day MVA (68.79) on lower volume. We will see if it can hold and make another run.

DF ($70.65; -1.00): Splits 2:1 effective 4-25-02. Dipped back below the recent support of the 10 day MVA, landing over the 18 day (70.40). Not big selling, but not what we were looking for in the handle pattern. The breakout is 73.50 on volume of 840,000, with stock and/or June $70 calls to buy (DF FN). The aggressive can look at a move over 72, with the same positions.

THQI ($48.87; -1.12): Splits 3:2 effective 4-10-02. After closing under the 200 day (50.31), THQI dropped back today but closed with a doji. Looking for the stock to move back over the 200 day, and then continue its solid move.

ICUI ($49.80; -1.02): Splits 3:2 effective 3-18-02. Pulled back to the 50 day MVA (49.29), which is at the level of its January high. Trapped below its short-term MVA's (51.37), and we will see if it can bounce over that level. On a move over 51.40, with stock.

WRI ($50.76; +0.28): Splits 3:2 effective 4-16-02. WRI is testing the former highs of its saucer. It bounced up a bit today, and we are looking for a move over 51.20 on volume of 100,000, with stock.

SMD ($24.56; +0.36): Splits 3:2 effective 3-18-02. Tried a move today, generating huge volume (88,000; average 48,600), but pulling back to close after hitting a high of 25.60. We will see if it can hold the 24 level, and look for another move over 25 before the split date, with stock.

CUB ($65.00; +0.74): Announced a 3:1 split, subject to shareholder approval, date TBA. Continue to drift up with strong volume. Still wary of a pullback, with the 10 day MVA below at 61.18.

WLP ($123.01; +0.46): Announced a 2:1 split, effective March 18. Back over the 50 day (121.87), holding to close over that point today. Not a lot of strength, but with any remaining positions we are cautious of a continued run.

CONTINUING CANDIDATES WATCHLIST: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date. These include AZO, BBBY, DHR, DIAN, EDS, GNSS, GOSHA, HB, IGT, JCI, LLL, RARE, RYL, STJ, TGH, TGIC, THC and YUM.

IGT (Internat Game Tech--$62.88; -1.12; optionable): Gaming.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/igt.html
STATUS: Tried to break out recently, but did not have the volume we wanted and went nowhere. We watched it dip back last week and hold the short-term MVA's (66), but Monday it tanked back, taking out what would have been our stop point and the 50 day (64.99). Today it gapped down and hit the put buy point, hitting a low of 61.85 but rebounding a bit to close with a doji on big volume (up to 1.99 million; average 1.14 million). Still holding onto positions on a target of the 200 day MVA (58.46), but off of this pattern IGT looks like it could test back up toward the 50 day; however, we are looking for that move to fail, and we can catch new or additional positions on the drop back.
BUY POINT: For new or additional positions, after a test of the 64 level, a drop back through 63 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: April $70 puts to buy (IGT PN - looking at a short-term play given the near-term expiration).

APPB (Applebee's--$34.12; -1.13; optionable): Restaurants.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/appb.html
STATUS: Another restaurant that is getting hit, and APPB gapped below its 50 day MVA (35.03) today as it drops off of the right shoulder of a head and shoulders (although one with an ill-defined neckline). Volume shot up to 1 million (average 460,000), and APPB hit a low of 33.69 before moving up a bit to close. Strong selling, and we are looking at a test of the 200 day MVA, below at 31.54 with the recent low from February. Not a whole lot of room there, but can still generate a solid short-term play.
BUY POINT: From here or after a bit of a relief bounce, through 33.80 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: May $40 calls to buy (AQB QH).

BBY ($74.45; -0.47): Is holding just under its recent highs, pausing after its recent move. We will see if BBY can hold on here, and look for a move back over the highs.

ETH ($39.90; -0.15): ETH made a nice run up from one of its long-term up trendlines (36), which was at the neckline of a head and shoulders pattern. The recent run hit 42.15, but has pulled back to test its 18 day MVA (39.64). Holding there, with a doji on high volume (478,900; average 205,000) today. The aggressive can play a move over 40 on continued strong volume, with stock and/or May $35 calls to buy (ETH EG - low open interest).

PII ($65.24; +1.07): Holding up after the great breakout last week, moving up again today but on below average volume. Targeting 69 on a continued move, but we could see some profit-taking, looking for PII to hold at 62 and set up another surge.

POST SPLITS WATCHLIST: Watching BLL, CHS, NJR, SONC, VAR and XRAY.

ACS ($52.18; -0.52): Split 2:1 on 2-25-02. Erratic now in the handle, hitting over the prior handle highs Monday but without volume. Needs to settle down and form a better pattern.

BSG ($33.38; +0.23): Split 2:1 on 2-25-02. Holding up well, trending up the short-term MVA's (32.38). For positions, looking for a move over 34 with volume of 600,000, and stock and/or June $30 calls to buy (BSG FF).

CHBS ($30.65; -0.25): Has really rebounded with strength, back over the 50 day (29.28), and after resting with dojis on low volume the last two sessions we can look back at the upside. On a move over 31.30 with volume of 600,000, stock and/or June $26.63 calls to buy (ULH FW).

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

stock split
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