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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
New plays:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/28/2008
CE (Celanese--$48.34; +0.38; optionable): Chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ce.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-21-08
STATUS: Flying plateau. CE is making a second consolidation of its April break higher out of a 17 week base. Nice lateral consolidation over the 18 day EMA (47.06) is holding the gains as it did in late April; like it when a stock refuses to give up its gains. Ready to move in as CE continues its run higher.
Volume: 939.995K Avg Volume: 1.396M
BUY POINT: $48.88 Volume=1.8M Target=$55.95 Stop=$46.97
POSITION: CE II - Sept. $45c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ce.html
Play Date: 05/28/2008
DNR (Denbury Resources--$34.35; -0.21; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dnr.html
EARNINGS: 8-5-08
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Big break higher in mid-May on strong volume as DNR moved out of a 4.5 month ascending triangle. Great breakout and now a test the past week, coming back to the 18 day EMA (34.15) where it closed Wednesday after an intraday test below that level. Nice strong recovery on strong volume looks like a good shakeout that has set up the next run after the initial breakout test. Very strong stock.
Volume: 3.086M Avg Volume: 2.334M
BUY POINT: $34.92 Volume=3.2M Target=$41.95 Stop=$33.68
POSITION: DNR IG - Sept. $35c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dnr.html
Play Date: 05/28/2008
DRYS (Dryships--$95.39; +8.36; optionable): Bulk shipping
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/drys.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-19-08
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Looking to make another play on DRYS after a great gain in early May. Broke out from a double bottom with handle base and surged close to 120. It has subsequently tested, coming back to the 50 day EMA (85) and bounced off that level Wednesday on rising above average volume. Momentum stock and looking to move in once more as DRYS makes the next run higher. Can really cover some ground (water?) when it gets started and looks as if it has left port again.
Volume: 8.018M Avg Volume: 4.486M
BUY POINT: $95.88 Volume=7.5M Target=$114.95 Stop=$93.21
POSITION: DQR GS - July $95c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/drys.html
Play Date: 05/28/2008
ETN (Eaton Corp.--$93.27; +4.02; optionable): Industrial electrical equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/etn.html
EARNINGS: Mid-July
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Strong, above average volume as ETN makes the break higher, clearing the handle in its 5 month base. Looks at least ready for a run to 100 given this strong break higher.
Volume: 3.89M Avg Volume: 2.341M
BUY POINT: $93.68 Volume=2.5M Target=$104.95 Stop=$89.42
POSITION: ETN GR - July $90c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/etn.html
Play Date: 05/28/2008
HES (Hess Corp.--$124.63; -1.37; optionable): Oil and gas refining, marketing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hes.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-30-08
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Broke out from a 4 month ascending base in late April, tested back to the 50 day EMA to start the month, then used that as the foundation for a continuation of the breakout move. It is now making the second test of the breakout, tapping the 18 day EMA (121.32) on the Wednesday low and then rebounding on strong volume; the buyers moved in. Nice money flow is running higher ahead of price. Ready to move in as HES continues its breakout run. Has two or more good runs on this move ahead of it.
Volume: 5.509M Avg Volume: 4.132M
BUY POINT: $126.11 Volume=5.5M Target=$144.95 Stop=$121.22
POSITION: IGG HE - Aug. $125c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hes.html
Play Date: 05/28/2008
NCOC (National Coal Corp.--$6.72; +0.31; no options): Coal
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncoc.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-15-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Exploded higher in mid-May on its earnings report, jumping out of a 4.5 month flat base. Volume has really ramped higher after this breakout as there is accumulation in the stock as well as a lot of momentum. Has refused to give up much ground on the test, holding at near support at the 10 day EMA (6.44) as it makes the pullback. Looking to move in as NCOC continues the breakout move.
Volume: 813.249K Avg Volume: 215.751K
BUY POINT: $7.02 Volume=600K Target=$8.95 Stop=$6.53
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ncoc.html
CONTINUING PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 05/27/2008
AMZN (Amazon.com--$80.08; -0.54; optionable): Online retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amzn.html
EARNINGS: 7-23-08
STATUS: Cup. Backed off from the 200 day SMA on lower volume, still in position to make the break higher. To recap: AMZN has formed a 6 week reverse head and shoulders as it approaches the shank of a 5 month cup base, showing some strong volume shots last week and Tuesday as it bumps the 200 day SMA. It rallied up to that resistance in late April, faded, bounced again last week, tested once more. It made a higher low at the 18 day EMA last week, and started to bounce Monday. Looking for a strong, high volume move up through the 200 day to give us the buy point as AMZN breaks through and starts the run toward the old high at 95.
Volume: 6.701M Avg Volume: 8.858M
BUY POINT: $81.21 Volume=13M Target=$93.45 Stop=$77.11
POSITION: ZQN GP - July $80c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/amzn.html
Play Date: 05/21/2008
BG (Bunge Ltd.--$117.90; +0.83; optionable): Soy Beans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bg.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-24-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Still in good shape, lurking over the 50 day EMA on rising volume. Just waiting for the break higher. To recap: Has quietly set up a 20 week accumulation base, working laterally the past 5 weeks, forming the right shoulder to its base. Needed a nice accumulation pattern after the breakout and run from last summer through January. Making a low volume test the past two sessions, holding at the 18 day EMA Wednesday after a strong Monday break higher. Money flow is strong and ready to play BG as it makes the break higher out of this pattern.
Volume: 1.874M Avg Volume: 2.925M
BUY POINT: $121.31 Volume=4M Target=$139.95 Stop=$117.65
POSITION: BG GD - July $120c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bg.html
Play Date: 05/23/2008
COP (ConocoPhillips--$92.56; +1.87; optionable): Large oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cop.html
EARNINGS: 4-24-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Nice price move off the doji at the 18 day EMA. Volume remained above average and was up as it made the move. Ready to step in as COP continues its break higher after this test. To recap: Two Fridays back COP broke higher from a rangy 10 month base, rallying to an all-time high on the move. It tapped 95 Wednesday and then sold back to test, holding support at 90 on the intraday low before setting at the 10 day EMA. Nice full test of the breakout and set to continue the move higher. Very nice pattern and very nice test to set up the new buy point.
Volume: 13.782M Avg Volume: 12.171M
BUY POINT: $92.65 Volume=19M Target=$106.75 Stop=$90.45
POSITION: COP HR - Aug. $90c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cop.html
Play Date: 05/23/2008
EMR (Emerson Electric--$57.93; +1.16; optionable): Industrial equipment and components
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/emr.html
EARNINGS: 5-6-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Gapped higher and held the gains into the close. Volume was not impressive, however, and we held off. If we can get more trade we will look to start the play. To recap: EMR faded back last week to near support at the 18 day EMA, tapping that level on the Friday low on low, below average volume. That lower trade shows no selling on the pullback. Great shakeout in the 6 month base as it forms the handle, setting up the move to a new all-time high. Excellent action in a weak market, using it to its advantage to set up the breakout for us.
Volume: 2.927M Avg Volume: 3.884M
BUY POINT: New: On a continued move from the Wednesday close (orig. $56.88) Volume=6M Target=$66.75 Stop=$55.42
POSITION: EMR IK - Sept. $55c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/emr.html
Play Date: 05/20/2008
FWLT (Foster Wheeler--$75.72; +2.04; optionable): Heavy construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fwlt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-7-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Starting higher but as of yet no volume as FWLT moves off the 18 day EMA. Need to see more power on the move. To recap: Nice strong volume surge last week finished the right side of its 5 month base, rallying to 80, the February peak, the 'hump' in the pattern. It matched that level and has faded toward the 10 day EMA (74.31), tapping toward that on the Tuesday low and then rebounding for a modest gain. Very low volume shakeout setting up the next breakout and run for FWLT.
Volume: 1.653M Avg Volume: 3.546M
BUY POINT: $76.21 Volume=5M Target=$93.95 Stop=$72.72
POSITION: UFG HW - Aug. $77.50c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fwlt.html
Play Date: 05/20/2008
ICO (International Coal Group--$9.83; +0.70; optionable): Coal
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ico.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-23-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Strong price and volume break higher Wednesday. Ready to move in as ICO continues the break higher yet again. To recap: Making the second test of near support (the 10 day EMA) after the mid-April breakout from its 10 wee saucer base. Nice run making us good money as ICO rallies up the 10 day EMA (9.60), showing a doji there Tuesday on low volume; that indicates the test is just about over. Looking for more upside as ICO comes off this doji and gives us the new buy point.
Volume: 4.574M Avg Volume: 2.323M
BUY POINT: $9.94 Volume=3M Target=$12.15 Stop=$9.40
POSITION: ICO IB - Sept. $10c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ico.html
KMT (Kennametal--$38.06; +1.08; optionable): Machine tools
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/k/kmt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-24-08
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. Nice price break Wednesday though volume did not follow, backing off from the average Wednesday trade. Very nice set up and looking to move in as KMT makes the break. To recap: Broke through this key resistance level just over a week back, starting the break from its 7 month base. Very nice tight fade back to test that move higher, holding at the 10 day EMA and above the 200 day SMA (36.20) this week. Volume bumped up to average Monday as KMT showed a tight doji on the candlestick chart, suggesting the pullback is over. Plenty of room overhead to run and love this tight little pullback.
Volume: 471.9K Avg Volume: 570.614K
BUY POINT: $37.88 Volume=856K Target=$44.95 Stop=$36.11
POSITION: KMT GG - July $35c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/kmt.html
Play Date: 05/22/2008
SINA (Sina.com--$51.45; +1.28; optionable): Chinese internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sina.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-14-08
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Starting the bounce off the 18 day EMA test. The strong Tuesday volume could not continue. Still looks excellent, still looking for a bit more volume. Very nice. To recap: SINA exploded higher on us in the second week of May and we missed that breakout from its 6.5 month double bottom with handle base. It rallied close to 60 then turned back the past week for a full test of the breakout move, tapping the 18 day EMA on the Thursday low and rebounding to close flat. Nice test and like that tight doji at the near support. Ready to move in on a strong bounce on continued solid, above average volume.
Volume: 1.216M Avg Volume: 1.586M
BUY POINT: $52.24 Volume=2.3M Target=$59.95 Stop=$49.31
POSITION: NOQ IJ - Sept. $50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sina.html
Play Date: 05/22/2008
VRSN (Verisign--$39.54; +0.12; optionable): Internet services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrsn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-8-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Still in the nice test of the 18 day EMA, tapping that level on the Wednesday low and then rebounding to hold the 10 day EMA on a much stronger shot of volume, moving trade back above average. Looks excellent, still ready to make the next break higher. To recap: Nice low volume over the 10 day EMA (39.20) as VRSN holds a strong breakout from last week. Nice formed 5.5 month double bottom with handle base, strong breakout on volume, and now a test setting up a great next break higher. Looking for volume to ramp up again as it makes the rebound once more.
Volume: 5.496M Avg Volume: 3.714M
BUY POINT: $39.88 Volume=4M Target=$47.95 Stop=$38.88
POSITION: QVR IH - Sept. $40c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/vrsn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
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