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Begin Part 2 of 2
Weekly Economic Calendar (All times Eastern). The figures are the consensus expectations, not ours.
3-11-02
Wholesale Inventories, January (10:00): -0.2% actual versus -0.5% expected and -0.5 prior (revised from -0.6%).
3-13-02
Retail Sales, February (8:30): +0.3% actual versus +0.9% expected and -0.2% prior.
Retail Sales, ex-auto, February (8:30): +0.2% actual versus 0.5% expected and 1.2% prior.
3-14-02
Business Inventories, January (8:30): -0.4% versus -0.4% prior.
Initial Claims, 3/9 (8:30): 375K versus 376K prior.
Export Prices ex-ag., February (8:30): 0.1% versus 0.1% prior.
Import Prices, ex-oil, February (8:30): 0.1% versus 0.1% prior.
Current Account, Q4 (8:30): -$101.5B versus -$95.0B prior.
3-15-02
PPI, February (8:30): 0.1% versus 0.1% prior.
Core PPI, February (8:30): 0.1% versus -0.1% prior.
Industrial Production, February (9:15): 0.2% versus -0.1% prior.
Capacity Utilization, February (9:15): 74.3% versus 74.2% prior.
Mich. Sentiment-Prel., March (9:45): 93.0 versus 90.7 prior.
TEAM TRADES
LE: The retail news in the morning has many retail stocks looking down for the open. We were watching with interest because the news was really not all that bad and LE had some good news on its own. It has also been building a very solid pattern for over 3 months. The stock started low. We were monitoring a lot of retail stocks based on the news. Most started lower, but they started working their way back up. LE was no exception; about an hour into the session it turned positive. It hit our buy point right at that time (53.48). It ran to 54 but then fell back, and that is where we were able to pick it up as it started higher. It was already up $1 from Tuesday's close and was bouncing down a bit so we did not take our full position for the stock. It rallied to 54.50, pulled back to 53.55 and held. That was important, and it acted as a springboard to more gains. It spent the rest of the afternoon trading between 54.50 and 55, and volume was huge. Now we did not finish taking out our full position today; we could have as the stock looked strong and had solid volume. We will wait and see if it pulls back a bit to test the breakout tomorrow and if it is successful will look at adding to the position.
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information. A "prior high" refers to the high at the start of a base.
For conserving space on listings of stop losses, the symbol (7%) indicates that the stop is 7% below the buy point.
Good movers: PPD and CNMD continued their upside moves. GE hit the buy point for the put play but may hold at the 18 day MVA. NBTY continues its breakout from the ascending wedge! PLCM continued lower for the put play!
Targets hit Wednesday: FDP (19.50)
Stocks/Indexes from Tuesday's report:
PPDI: Looked good on the move up in its ascending wedge yesterday, but stronger volume on Wednesday accompanied the $0.60 loss. Not good action for a pullback (higher volume). Can test 32.
GWW: Sold out of the flying plateau on strong volume, breaking the short term MVAs. Can fall to 54, its 50 day MVA. No news at the time of this writing.
SIMG: Still looks good in the test of the breakout.
RKY: Ditto.
HDI: Slightly higher volume and a $0.27 move up in the ascending wedge/handle.
Continued Plays: Still like UNTD (3-10), LYTS (3-10), ATK (3-10)
GAP (3-06): Showed a volume spike in its pullback; holding the 18 day MVA. Looks good!
KSWS: Making a good move up from the 10 day MVA on strong volume (3-07)!
NWK: Still a tight consolidation (pennant) with very low volume Wednesday ((3-09).
RPM: Pulled back all the way to the 50 day MVA (we were looking for a hold at the higher 18 day). From here, can launch a run. Buy point over 16.10 on continued rising volume.
SNS: Slid below the 18 day MVA on rising volume. Still above the buy point in the test of the breakout (12.80), and the January high at 13.28, but needs to get back over the 18 day quickly.
Best Plays:
1) OII: Getting ready to launch a bounce.
2) EEFT: Heading lower.
3) ESE: A volume spike at support.
New plays:
OII (Oceaneering Internat--$26.60; +0.30; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/oii.html
STATUS: Another flying plateau pattern that is holding support on the pullback at the 18 day MVA (25.77). OII broke out on a run from its 50 day MVA mid-February, just after that moving average crossed over the 200 day MVA. Now that OII has pulled back to the 18 day MVA, we are looking for the start of a series of bounces from this support level; stocks can bounce 3-4 times from the 18 day MVA before correcting back to their 50 day MVAs once again. Volume Wednesday was up to a nice 313,200 (average is 131,000) with OII showing a tight doji on the small gain. Looking for the bounce! Strong money flow. Target: 34
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 27.89 for a breakout, on continued strong volume. Stop Advisory (7%): 25.94
POSITION: Stock and/or July $22.50 calls to buy (OII GX).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/oii.html
SPF (Standard Pacific--$30.95; -0.70; optionable): Materials & Construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/spf.html
STATUS: Looking at some homebuilders as they pull back from recent runs. SPF was no exception, making a super run off of its 50 day MVA that pushed the stock up to completion of the upper right side of its 13-month cup base. Now pulling back into a handle, the stock is currently holding support at the 10 day MVA (30.58). It can drop back to the 18 day MVA (29.44), but volume is falling off rapidly and is already well below average and near historical levels when the stock makes its bounces/runs. SPF may take another day or so of consolidation at the 10 day MVA in preparation for that move. Volume 104,200; avg. 212,300. Excellent money flow and buying. Target: 39
BUY POINT: Breakout: 32.55 on volume of 319,000 or higher. Stop Advisory (7%): 30.27
POSITION: Stock and/or June $30 calls to buy (SPF FF). Check delta.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/spf.html
PLXT (Plx Tech--$16.06; +0.07; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/plxt.html
STATUS: The Nasdaq is not looking its best, but some tech stocks are setting up some decent patterns in the meantime. PLXT broke out of some double bottom action at the lows in a 6-week "cup", and is now forming a handle as a test of the move. Holding support at the 10 day MVA (15.75) with a doji on the small gain, the stock got a strong shot of volume to the tune of 266,200 (avg. 220,400) Wednesday. That can move it up from support in the right conditions; otherwise, PLXT can continue to consolidate above the support and the spike can portend a breakout. That is what we'll expect from the pattern. Money flow is outstanding. Target: 21
BUY POINT: Breakout: 17.10 on volume of 331,000 or higher. Stop Advisory (7%): 15.90
POSITION: Stock and/or July $12.50 calls to buy (PIU GV).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/plxt.html
Put Play:
EEFT (Euronet Worldwide--$17.86; -1.23; optionable): Business Services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eeft.html
STATUS: The stock double topped January and February, broke down then recovered back over its 50 day MVA early this month. However, it sold back below that support again Wednesday (18.55) on big volume (406,900; avg.177,100) and we are looking for a breakdown to the 200 day MVA at 14.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 17.70 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: May $22.50 puts to buy (QNE QX).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/eeft.html
Updates:
ESE (Esco Tech--$38.00; +0.14; no options): Aerospace/Defense
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ese.html
STATUS: Still in the lateral pattern formed after ESE's strong move off of its 50 day MVA early in February. We covered the stock March 5 as the pattern tightened up nicely, and on Monday ESE looked ready to try a move although volume wasn't much improved from the previous session. That changed Wednesday on a strong surge in volume, 60,800 (avg. 43,000); the stock held ground at the 18 day MVA (37.71) with a tight doji. This volume spike can portend a move up; we are looking for a breakout. Strong money flow and good buying. Target: 45
BUY POINT: Breakout: 39.30 on continued strong volume (minimum breakout volume is 58,000). Stop Advisory (7%): 36.55
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ese.html
PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that look ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: DGX, FRX, LLL, MIK, APPB, IGT.
IGT ($61.67; -1.21): Tapped support at 60 on the low. Now if it bounces back up to the 50 day MVA (but cannot move back over at this time), can exit existing positions there.
APPB ($34.27; +0.15): From 34 the stock bounced back up to test the 50 day MVA but failed to move over the resistance. A good place to exit current positions. We are going to wait for restaurants to regroup, then show they are ready to move back up.
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: BBBY, SRCL
Both stocks holding pat at recent levels (see last night's report for more details).
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: CSCO, SEBL, EMLX, BRCM, HDI, BRCD, BUD, AMGN, WMT, ORCL, HB, NOC
WMT ($61.99; -0.24): Continues to hold support at the 18 day MVA on low volume. WMT has held the 18 day for 4 bounces since the January test of the 50 day MVA, and it is time for a test of that lower support. It looks like it is trying to muster another move, but may not get the volume.
BRCM ($40.24; -1.56): We noted last night the stock's lower volume pullback. Today it finally hit the 50 day MVA on even lower volume, and will likely hold there until a Nasdaq rally.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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