|
|
trend trading stock, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
New Pre-Announcement plays contained in that section.
Post-Split:
Play Date: 06/05/2008
ESRX (Express Scripts--$73.74; +0.93; optionable): Mail order prescriptions
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esrx.html
EARNINGS: Late July
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Moving toward the breakout in its 5 month base, making a higher low at the 18 day EMA (71.69) the past week, setting up the meeting with the April high near 74. Slow and steady as usual, but looks as if it is getting ready to flash us a buy signal with a breakout move.
Volume: 2.308M Avg Volume: 2.674M
BUY POINT: $74.38 Volume=4M Target=$85.95 Stop=$71.55
POSITION: XTQ HN - Aug. $70c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/esrx.html
Play Date: 06/05/2008
NKE (Nike--$70.07; +2.36; optionable): Athletic apparel. Swoosh. Just do it.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nke.html
EARNINGS: 6-25-08
STATUS: Flat base. Strong volume Wednesday and then an above average jump Thursday as NKE cleared a 10 week trading range, moving to a new all-time closing high. NKE keeps selling a lot of apparel and it keeps growing its earnings. Money flow is moving higher head of price and we are ready to move in as it continues the breakout and then look at some more positions on the successful test.
Volume: 4.887M Avg Volume: 3.745M
BUY POINT: $70.39 Volume=4.5M Target=$80.95 Stop=$67.21
POSITION: NKE JN - Oct. $70c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nke.html
Leader plays:
Play Date: 06/05/2008
BMRN (Biomarin Pharmaceuticals--$38.69; +1.29; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bmrn.html
EARNINGS: Late July
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Taking another run at BMRN as sure enough, when it got back to the 50 day EMA (37.18) is jumped back up on rising, above average volume. Okay. Nice 16 week base, good action off the 50 day EMA. Looking to take some positions as it continues the move on solid trade, following its strong money flow.
Volume: 2.076M Avg Volume: 1.701M
BUY POINT: $39.31 Volume=2.6M Target=$47.31 Stop=$37.05
POSITION: NUR JH - Oct. $40c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bmrn.html
Play Date: 06/05/2008
MOS (Mosaic Company--$134.42; +5.68; optionable): Ag chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mos.html
EARNINGS: Late July
STATUS: Double bottom. Nice volume Tuesday on a solid upside move and again Thursday as MOS bounced from a Wednesday pullback. As with other ag stocks it has formed a 7 week base, using the 50 day EMA (121.53) as support. Nice break higher Thursday and looking to move in as it continues the move higher.
Volume: 7.077M Avg Volume: 6.676M
BUY POINT: $134.88 Volume=9M Target=$154.95 Stop=$129.05
POSITION: MTJ IG - Sept. $135c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mos.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Starting higher off the test with rumors the new iPhone will be unveiled next week.
BHI: Tentatively set for late July
CLB: A wildcard with no splits. Tentatively set for July
COP: Forecast July. Big rebound form a dead away drop.
CW: Tentatively set for third week of July
ETN: Researching date
GGB: Researching date. Starting to break higher once more
GILD: Researching date
HES: Forecast July
IBM: Solid lateral move over the 10 day EMA as IBM holds its gains
JEC: Mid-July
JOYG: Breaking higher once more
MICC: Forecast third week of July
MTRX: Forecast early July
PX: Late July
RS: Mid-July
SCHN: Researching date
TMO: Tentatively set for July
VMI: Mid-July
WDR: Researching date
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/05/2008
APD (Air Products & Chemicals--$106.03; +4.55; optionable): Chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/apd.html
EARNINGS: Third week of July
STATUS: Double bottom with handle. Strong volume, strong price move as APD surges out of its 6 month base. Moving to a new all-time high with panache. Looking to take some positions as it continues the move and then adding to the position on a successful test.
Volume: 2.462M Avg Volume: 1.317M
BUY POINT: $106.24 Volume=1.5M Target=$119.95 Stop=$101.65
POSITION: APD IA - Sept. $105c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/apd.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 05/31/2008
MBT (Mobile Telesys--$88.11; +3.11; optionable): Russian wireless telecom
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mbt.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-20-08
STATUS: Cup with handle. Looks as if the dip to the 18 day EMA was a shakeout as MBT bounces right back up toward the top fo the handle. Ready for when it makes the move. To recap: After an excellent run in 2007 that needed a consolidation, MBT has formed an excellent base this year. It rallied higher starting mid-May with its earnings, forming the right side of its 5 month base. The past week it has slid laterally, waiting for the 10 day EMA (85.78) to catch up with it as volume slipped as well. Nice, nice shakeout/consolidation of the May run, setting up the breakout and run toward the prior high at 105. Nice setup from an excellent stock.
Volume: 1.67M Avg Volume: 1.768M
BUY POINT: $89.32 Volume=2.8M Target=$104.95 Stop=$85.66
POSITION: MBT IR - Sept. $90c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mbt.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/03/2008
APH (Amphenol Corp.--$48.88; +0.88; optionable): Electrical fiber optic, coax, flat ribbon cables, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aph.html
EARNINGS: Mid-July
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Solid volume all week and it was up again Thursday though could not quite make average. Still a good volume swell, and if APH continues we will look at taking some positions and then wait for a test to finish the buy. To recap: APH broke out from a 4 month double bottom with handle base in mid-April on strong earnings, rallying past the pattern high and hitting 48 on the breakout run. It tested the past five weeks, forming another smaller double bottom with handle. Volume surged Monday and Tuesday as APH broke higher off the 10 day EMA test. Closed well off its high Tuesday but still looks great for the break higher to continue. Very nice.
Volume: 1.155M Avg Volume: 1.148M
BUY POINT: $48.22 Volume=1.4M Target=$55.95 Stop=$46.38
POSITION: APH JI - Oct. $45c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/aph.html
Play Date: 05/31/2008
BRCM (Broadcom--$28.75; +0.65; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 4-22-08
STATUS: Trend reversal. Flirted with the buy point all session on rising, above average volume. On a continued move it is a buy. To recap: Looking at BRCM again as it has set up again after its late April gap higher on earnings, moving back over the 200 day SMA (27.44) Friday. The catalyst was MRVL in the same sector with its outlook for the future. Strong volume, solid move over a key level. BRCM has a nice range to run higher without resistance, and there is that gap lower from October that it will eventually fill. Cool. Ready to move in as BRCM clears the early May high.
Volume: 16.151M Avg Volume: 15.041M
BUY POINT: $28.88 Volume=20M Target=$37.22 Stop=$27.31
POSITION: RCQ HY - Aug. $27.50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/brcm.html
Play Date: 05/23/2008
EMR (Emerson Electric--$58.20; +1.01; optionable): Industrial equipment and components
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/emr.html
EARNINGS: 5-6-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Tested back to the 18 day EMA this week and then started back up Thursday. Looking for a bit more trade to show it has the buyers back with it. To recap: EMR faded back last week to near support at the 18 day EMA, tapping that level on the Friday low on low, below average volume. That lower trade shows no selling on the pullback. Great shakeout in the 6 month base as it forms the handle, setting up the move to a new all-time high. Excellent action in a weak market, using it to its advantage to set up the breakout for us.
Volume: 3.038M Avg Volume: 3.791M
BUY POINT: On a continued move (orig. $56.88) Volume=6M Target=$66.75 Stop=$55.42
POSITION: EMR IK - Sept. $55c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/emr.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/04/2008
NETL (Netlogic Microsystems--$40.15; +0.40; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/netl.html
EARNINGS: Late July
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. Tested then moved back up Thursday, following up some on the strong Wednesday surge. Could have moved in and likely should have. Didn't, but still in position to buy some positions on a further move and then on a test. To recap: Strong volume Wednesday as NETL broke higher, clearing the highs in its 9 month base. Excellent action from the consolidation of its strong 2005 to early 2006 run when it was a new issue. Big base the past three years (of which the current pattern is the tail end) has set up a solid foundation to breakout and run to a new all-time high once more.
Volume: 1.217M Avg Volume: 728.989K
BUY POINT: $40.08 Volume=1M Target=$45.95 Stop=$37.66
POSITION: LKT JH - Oct. $40c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/netl.html
Play Date: 05/31/2008
PCLN (Priceline.com--$137.34; +2.51; optionable): Online travel, hotels, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcln.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-8-08
STATUS: Ascending base. Volume moved up to average as PCLN started higher. Closed off its high and we were looking for more trade to move in. Still a buy if it continues higher and picks ups some volume, but won't take a full position Friday if it does. To recap: PCLN is volatile; gapped higher in early May then sold off to fill the gap a week later. It held the 50 day EMA (127.23), the rising support of the 5 month pattern. Friday volume jumped above average for the first time in two weeks as PCLN posted a modest gain. Looks as if money is moving into PCLN and some were getting a jump start on the new month. Ready to move in as PCLNE breaks higher on continued solid trade.
Volume: 1.335M Avg Volume: 1.409M
BUY POINT: On a continued move higher (orig. $136.21) Volume=2M Target=$156.95 Stop=$131.25
POSITION: PNE GG - July $135c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pcln.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
trend trading stock
trade stock
|
