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stock recommendation, stock market recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 06/07/2008
ATW (Atwood Oceanics--$104.37; -2.92; optionable): Offshore oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/atw.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-8-08
STATUS: Ascending base. ATW has formed the current 7 week base using the 50 day EMA (102) as support. This follows the April breakout from a 14 week double bottom; nice base on base pattern to really weed out the sellers and set up a new move higher. It is coming off the latest low in the recent pattern, surging Thursday on strong volume. Friday it continued higher but reversed to close lower along with many energy stocks. Managed to hold the short term moving averages on the close and volume was lower. Looking for a hold here and a new break higher. That is the one we can buy into.
Volume: 624.338K Avg Volume: 588.814K
BUY POINT: $105.77 Volume=800K Target=$121.95 Stop=$103.65
POSITION: ATW IA - Sept. $105c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/atw.html
Play Date: 06/07/2008
BVN (Compania De Minas--$69.82; +1.63; optionable): Gold mining
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bvn.html
EARNINGS: Late July
STATUS: Cup. BVN is working through an 11 week cup base that is consolidating a strong September 2007 to March 2008 run. Needed a good rest after that run, and this base is doing that, using the 200 day SMA near 60 as support on the early May low then working its way higher from there. Showing excellent upside volume the past week on the upside sessions, an indication of ongoing accumulation. While gold itself looks to have set up a top, BVN shows no indication of that. If Friday was a change in character in the market then gold become more valuable and BVN is well-positioned to take advantage of the recovery.
Volume: 818.748K Avg Volume: 759.978K
BUY POINT: $70.52 Volume=1M Target=$84.75 Stop=$66.78
POSITION: BVN IN - Sept. $70c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bvn.html
Play Date: 06/07/2008
MA (MasterCard--$295.73; -10.43; optionable): Payment servicing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/ma.html
EARNINGS: Late July
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Gapped higher in late April on strong earnings, clearing a 5 month base. It tested in late May then gapped higher again. It is now in its second test of the big breakout, coming back to the 10 day EMA (297.24) last week on lower and lower volume. May come back a bit more, but it has a tendency to take off rapidly after hitting this near support. Strong money flow continues to lead higher even as MA makes this test back to near support. Looking for the end of the test to send it higher and then we move in.
Volume: 2.939M Avg Volume: 3.491M
BUY POINT: $297.39 Volume=4M Target=$339.95 Stop=$291.34
POSITION: MAL GA - July $300c (50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ma.html
Play Date: 06/07/2008
VQ (Venoco, Inc.--$20.50; +0.83; optionable): Domestic independent oil and gas exploration
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vq.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-12-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Nicely formed 7 month base for this stock that was a new issue in late 2006; still a baby. Strong, strong volume on the upside sessions the past two months, then a nice, quiet pullback in the handle to test the 18 day EMA (19.38) the past week. Volume then surged Thursday and Friday as VQ moved off the near support. Strong money flow powered ahead even as VQ tested to form the handle. Very solid and looking for VQ price to follow that money flow higher with a solid breakout. A top stock in terms of earnings growth rates.
Volume: 520.505K Avg Volume: 335.045K
BUY POINT: $20.98 Volume=500K Target=$25.31 Stop=$19.53
POSITION: VQ ID - Sept. $20c (55 delta, 45 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/vq.html
Downside:
Play Date: 06/07/2008
AMX (America Movil--$55.14; -2.22; optionable): Latin American cell phone service
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amx.html
EARNINGS: Third week of July
STATUS: Put. Gapped lower on earnings in late April. It held at 56 for over a month, attempting to mount a recovery through the end of May. There it stumbled back to 56. Friday it collapsed through that level on a sharp rise in above average volume. Money flow is in the toilet and swirling toward the drain. Looking for AMX to follow. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 10.638M Avg Volume: 7.399M
BUY POINT: $54.96 Volume=7.5M Target=$51.91 Stop=$55.38
POSITION: AMX TK - Aug. $55p (-49 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/amx.html
Play Date: 06/07/2008
CPB (Campbell Soup--$32.67; -0.73; optionable): Processed foods (soup for one)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cpb.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-19-08
STATUS: Put. Earnings did not sit well on investors' stomachs and CPB collapsed through the 200 day SMA (34.50) in a massive drop to 33ish. It worked laterally for three weeks, holding that level where there was support from prior peaks and troughs. Friday that gave way and CPB broke through the bottom of the range on the strongest volume in 2 weeks. Money flow is leading lower and CPB looks primed to follow it. A move to the target lands a 40%ish gain.
Volume: 2.334M Avg Volume: 1.804M
BUY POINT: $32.55 Volume=2M Target=$31.00 Stop=$32.87
POSITION: CPB TZ - Aug. $32.50p (-35 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cpb.html
Play Date: 06/07/2008
DIA (Diamonds Trust (DJ30 EFT)--$122.12; -3.99; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dia.html
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Volume has jumped on the downside moves this month and Friday was of course the big break lower that consummated DIA's 9 week head and shoulders top. Pretty strong break lower and worth chasing a few positions, preferably on an early bounce Monday that stalls out. That would be preferable to a sharp downside open; if we get another one of those we will wait for a bounce back. Quite a break lower, however, and that indicates there is more downside before any significant upside. A move to the target lands a 38%ish gain.
Volume: 24.017M Avg Volume: 14.019M
BUY POINT: $121.94 Volume=18M Target=$119.00 Stop=$122.44
POSITION: DAW SR - July $122p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dia.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock market recommendation
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