|
|
us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
New Pre-Announcement plays contained in that section.
Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 06/10/2008
BUCY (Bucyrus International--$72.63; -2.50; optionable): Large cranes used in mining, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bucy.html
EARNINGS: 7-24-08
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. BUCY broke out in mid-April, clearing a 4 month base; ragged base, but a base. It was enough to support this run, taking BUCY up the 18 day EMA (70.21) to 75. It has come back to test last Fridays gap higher, tapping at the 10 day EMA (71.88) on the Tuesday low. Low, below average volume on that move. BUCY is getting a bit long in the tooth on this move, but it still shows strong upside volume and we are looking for another strong leg out of BUCY to bank us a solid gain off this test of the 10 day.
Volume: 1.97M Avg Volume: 2.32M
BUY POINT: $73.12 Volume=2.8M Target=$83.95 Stop=$71.66
POSITION: HIK JV - Oct. $72.50c (52 delta) or HIK GV - July $72.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bucy.html
Play Date: 06/10/2008
STLD (Steel Dynamics--$37.77; -1.20; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stld.html
EARNINGS: Third week of April
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Broke higher last week on strong volume, clearing an 8 week base. Coming back on lower volume to test and form a handle, tapping the 10 day EMA (37.16) on the Tuesday low, rebounding to cut the losses. Nice higher low setting up a new breakout to a new all-time high.
Volume: 3.887M Avg Volume: 4.728M
BUY POINT: $38.48 Volume=6.5M Target=$36.75 Stop=$36.68
POSITION: RQL HU - Aug. $37.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/stld.html
Play Date: 06/10/2008
UNP (Union Pacific--$78.56; -1.16; optionable): Railroads
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/unp.html
EARNINGS: Last week July
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Took some gain on UNP after a strong run for us, not wanting it to turn as the rails started to weaken some. It has held the 18 day EMA (78.23), and if it can make the break higher on some solid trade we will look to play that move. It is getting a bit long in the tooth on this run; it broke out in April from a 5 month base and has rallied nicely up the 18 day EMA. Thus we are just looking for one more strong run; if it goes just 5 points and weakens then we will go ahead and take the gain and be happy.
Volume: 4.147M Avg Volume: 5.791M
BUY POINT: $79.22 Volume=6.5M Target=$90.95 Stop=$77.75
POSITION: UNP HA - Aug. $77.50c (59 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/unp.html
Leader plays:
Play Date: 06/10/2008
PDO (Pyramid Oil--$19.04; +0.44; no options): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pdo.html
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. A new issue in August 2006, PDO toiled in anonymity through late April 2008. Then it surged with the energy surge. Explosive move from mid-May sent it to 28, then it reversed and fell back to the 10 day EMA (18.96) and 18 day EMA (17.71). It has spent the past two weeks working laterally in an tight range over this near support on lower volume. Tried to gear up the next break higher Friday on strong volume but then faded back to test the 18 day EMA once more. Low volume as it made this pullback. Waiting to see if it will continue to hold this support and then make the next break higher on rising volume. It will tell us whether to get in or not.
Volume: 202.676K Avg Volume: 350K
BUY POINT: $20.11 Volume=400K Target=$26.95 Stop=$18.91
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pdo.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Tough start to the week on the developers' conference but a solid recovery Tuesday.
APD: Tentatively set for third week of July
ATW: Researching date
BHI: Tentatively set for late July
CLB: A wildcard with no splits. Tentatively set for July
COP: Forecast July
CW: Tentatively set for third week of July
ETN: Researching date
GGB: Researching date. Starting to break higher once more
GILD: Researching date
HES: Forecast July
IBM: Solid lateral move over the 10 day EMA as IBM holds its gains
JEC: Mid-July. Did not hold up for us, but is thus far holding at the 50 day EMA.
JOYG: Testing the 10 day EMA after its last run
MICC: Forecast third week of July
MTRX: Forecast early July
PX: Late July
RS: Mid-July
SCHN: Researching date
TMO: Tentatively set for July
VMI: Mid-July
WDR: Researching date
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/10/2008
SLB (Schlumberger--$102.34; -2.47; optionable): Oil and gas service company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slb.html
EARNINGS: Third week of July
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Working on a 6 week double bottom with handle base over the 50 day EMA (99.24) as the last part of a larger 9 month accumulation base. Strong break higher in April on earnings, then the move laterally through this week, consolidating and setting up the next breakout try. Making a higher low at the 18 day EMA, and that typically precedes a breakout attempt.
Volume: 7.8M Avg Volume: 9.095M
BUY POINT: $105.11 Volume=12M Target=$119.95 Stop=$102.08
POSITION: SDB HA - Aug. $105c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/slb.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/09/2008
BHI (Baker Hughes--$86.92; -2.64; optionable): Oil and gas service
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bhi.html
EARNINGS: 7-22-08
STATUS: reverse head and shoulders. Tried to break higher Monday but no volume behind it and slipped back to test the 18 day EMA Tuesday on rising trade. Still a nice lateral move and still set to make the break, just being patient and letting the move come to us. To recap: BHI broke higher in mid-May, clearing the neckline at 85 in its 8 month base. It has moved laterally in a 5 point range following the initial breakout move. It is making a higher low at the 10 day EMA (87.35), bumping at the breakout point from its short consolidation range. Looking for a bit more trade as it makes the break higher.
Volume: 4.259M Avg Volume: 4.49M
BUY POINT: $90.48 Volume=6.5M Target=$104.95 Stop=$87.22
POSITION: BHI JR - Oct. $90c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bhi.html
Play Date: 06/09/2008
VMI (Valmont Industries--$112.48; -0.14; optionable): Metal fabricaion
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vmi.html
EARNINGS: 7-17-08
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Still in the second test of the breakout, holding above support at 110 on low volume in its four week pullback. Nice test and just waiting for the break higher to come to us and give us the buy. To recap: VMI broke out from a 7 month double bottom base in mid-April. It tested in late April, holding support at the 18 day EMA (112.17). It jumped higher and rallied nicely up the 10 and 18 day EMA, making us a nice chunk of change on that run. It is now testing again the past two weeks, coming back again to the 18 day EMA on low, below average volume. That shows no sellers, just profit taking. Looking for VMI to bounce up off this second test of the breakout and give us a nice entry point to the next leg higher.
Volume: 272.933K Avg Volume: 351.458K
BUY POINT: $114.75 Volume=525K Target=$129.95 Stop=$110.91
POSITION: VMI IC - Sept. $115c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/vmi.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/04/2008
NETL (Netlogic Microsystems--$36.31; -0.50; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/netl.html
EARNINGS: Late July
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. Still testing, showing a nice tight doji on lower average volume Tuesday at the 18 day EMA (35.94). Using the market weakness to go ahead and test last week's surge higher, holding near support on lower trade. Waiting for the next bounce on rising volume to give us the buy point. To recap: Strong volume Wednesday as NETL broke higher, clearing the highs in its 9 month base. Excellent action from the consolidation of its strong 2005 to early 2006 run when it was a new issue. Big base the past three years (of which the current pattern is the tail end) has set up a solid foundation to breakout and run to a new all-time high once more.
Volume: 843.808K Avg Volume: 752.198K
BUY POINT: $38.72 Volume=1M Target=$45.95 Stop=$37.08
POSITION: LKT JH - Oct. $40c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/netl.html
Downside:
Play Date: 06/09/2008
SDS (UltraShort S&P500 ETF--$59.96; +0.60; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sds.html
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Gapped higher but then traded all over the map in an up and down session. Still in position to move higher as SP500 is still in position to move lower. Thus we will be patient and let it make the continued break higher for us as SP500 moves lower with a renewed move on its breakdown. To recap: As SP500 forms a head and shoulders top below the 200 day SMA, its foil the SDS (moves inversely to SP500 at a 2:1 rate) has set up the equivalent upside pattern. Strong volume the past week. Looking to move in after this rebound move from the Friday selling dissipates and SDS turns back down.
Volume: 27.202M Avg Volume: 22.274M
BUY POINT: On a continued move upside in a weak market and SP500 (orig. $59.84) Volume=30M Target=$64.95 Stop=$58.04
POSITION: SDS GG - July $59c (56 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sds.html
Play Date: 06/07/2008
DIA (Diamonds Trust (DJ30 EFT)--$122.96; 0.00; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dia.html
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Bounced again from the Friday drubbing but closed well off the high. Volume declined on the bounce. Still looking for DIA to turn back down in another gloomy environment; it was there Tuesday but it didn't hold after the opening bell rang. To recap: Volume has jumped on the downside moves this month and Friday was of course the big break lower that consummated DIA's 9 week head and shoulders top. Pretty strong break lower and worth chasing a few positions, preferably on an early bounce Monday that stalls out. That would be preferable to a sharp downside open; if we get another one of those we will wait for a bounce back. Quite a break lower, however, and that indicates there is more downside before any significant upside. A move to the target lands a 38%ish gain.
Volume: 14.82M Avg Volume: 13.973M
BUY POINT: $122.89 Volume=18M Target=$119.00 Stop=$114.29
POSITION: DAW SR - July $122p (-43 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dia.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
trade stock
|
