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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
New Pre-Announcement plays contained in that section.
Pre-Split Plays:
Play Date: 06/12/2008
SF (Stifel Financial--$55.77; +1.19; optionable): Investment brokerage. Splits 3:2 on 6-13-08
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sf.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Splits Friday but it has a great pattern and looks to make the break higher as it splits. Nice 9 month base with a 4-week handle forming, showing a nice spike in volume Thursday as SF tried to break higher but then faded back. Very solid base forming just below the old high, ready to make the breakout and run to a new high once more.
Volume: 263.557K Avg Volume: 198.605K
BUY POINT: $38.48 (post-split) Volume=300K Target=$44.65 Stop=$36.36
POSITION: SF GG - July $35c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sf.html
Play Date: 06/12/2008
TWI (Titan International--$39.29; +1.43; optionable): Auto parts. Splits 5:4 on 8/18/08
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/twi.html
EARNINGS: Last week of July
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Making the second test of the 50 day EMA (37.84) since the early April breakout from a 6 month double bottom with handle base. TWI tests then runs higher for 8 or so points, then tests again. Just coming off the test Thursday, gapping higher off support. Looking to enter as TWI continues the bounce higher off the 50 day.
Volume: 373.329K Avg Volume: 473.218K
BUY POINT: $40.32 Volume=650K Target=$47.95 Stop=$37.78
POSITION: TWI GH - July $40c (49 delta, 1.8K OI) or TWI JH - Oct. $40c (low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/twi.html
Leader plays:
Play Date: 06/12/2008
CHK (Chesapeake Energy--$58.29; -1.38; optionable): Natural gas exploration and production
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chk.html
EARNINGS: Late July
STATUS: Test breakout. CHK gapped higher last Friday on that big oil surge, clearing a short 4 week base that tested the 50 day EMA (53.66) on the low, using that key level as support. After a breakout and run higher up the 18 day EMA from April through May it could have used another test of the 50 day EMA and it took it. After that jump higher it has tested back to the 10 day EMA (57.48), tapping that level on the Friday low and rebounding modestly. Looking for it to hold this level and then start a new move up the 10 and 18 day EMA.
Volume: 10.986M Avg Volume: 12.616M
BUY POINT: $59.78 Volume=15M Target=$68.95 Stop=$57.38
POSITION: CHK JL - Oct. $60c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/chk.html
Downside:
Play Date: 06/12/2008
XOM (Exxon--$87.06; -1.55; optionable): Major integrated oil company
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xom.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-1-08
STATUS: Double top. Announced earnings in early May and gapped lower. It held the 200 day SMA (89.06) and rebounded in mid-May. It climbed to the April peak and then fell hard, falling through the 200 day SMA to start June. A rebound the past week could not punch through that key level, and Thursday volume spiked as XOM gapped lower in a clear turn lower. Looking for further downside to make us some quick money. A move to the target lands a 39%ish gain.
Volume: 32.265M Avg Volume: 26.458M
BUY POINT: $86.72 Volume=27M Target=$83.26 Stop=$88.45
POSITION: XOM SR - July $90p (-58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/xom.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Tough start to the week on the developers' conference but a solid recovery Tuesday.
APD: Tentatively set for third week of July
ATW: Researching date
BHI: Tentatively set for late July
CLB: A wildcard with no splits. Tentatively set for July
COP: Forecast July
CW: Tentatively set for third week of July
ETN: Researching date
GGB: Researching date. Starting to break higher once more
GILD: Researching date
HES: Forecast July
IBM: Solid lateral move over the 10 day EMA as IBM holds its gains
JEC: Mid-July. Did not hold up for us, but is thus far holding at the 50 day EMA.
JOYG: Testing the 10 day EMA after its last run
MICC: Forecast third week of July
MTRX: Forecast early July
PX: Late July
RS: Mid-July
SCHN: Researching date
TMO: Tentatively set for July
VMI: Mid-July
WDR: Researching date
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/12/2008
MON (Monsanto--$134.93; +1.53; optionable): Ag
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mon.html
EARNINGS: 6-25-08
STATUS: Breakout test. MON has made us good money, and after an incredible 2007 run it needed a new base, and it has formed a 5 month ascending pattern, breaking out to start June. It rallied to 140 and has come back to near support to test that move, holding the 10 day EMA (133) this week, showing a nice tight doji at that level Thursday. Nice test and ready to move in as MON holds and starts back up on some solid trade.
Volume: 5.7M Avg Volume: 7.34M
BUY POINT: $136.48 Volume=10M Target=$156.95 Stop=$132.57
POSITION: MFP JG - Oct. $135c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mon.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/09/2008
BHI (Baker Hughes--$86.29; -0.89; optionable): Oil and gas service
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bhi.html
EARNINGS: 7-22-08
STATUS: reverse head and shoulders. Holding up very well, testing support at 85 on lower trade, bouncing up off that level. Still forming the lateral move, measuring the next break higher. To recap: BHI broke higher in mid-May, clearing the neckline at 85 in its 8 month base. It has moved laterally in a 5 point range following the initial breakout move. It is making a higher low at the 10 day EMA (87.35), bumping at the breakout point from its short consolidation range. Looking for a bit more trade as it makes the break higher.
Volume: 3.321M Avg Volume: 4.476M
BUY POINT: $90.48 Volume=6.5M Target=$104.95 Stop=$87.22
POSITION: BHI JR - Oct. $90c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bhi.html
Play Date: 06/09/2008
VMI (Valmont Industries--$112.10; +0.71; optionable): Metal fabricaion
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vmi.html
EARNINGS: 7-17-08
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Still in the orderly test of the run higher, holding at the 18 day EMA the past four sessions, volume rising to average or near average the past two sessions. Very solid in a weak market, and once the selling abates VMI is in great position to make the next move higher. To recap: VMI broke out from a 7 month double bottom base in mid-April. It tested in late April, holding support at the 18 day EMA (112.17). It jumped higher and rallied nicely up the 10 and 18 day EMA, making us a nice chunk of change on that run. It is now testing again the past two weeks, coming back again to the 18 day EMA on low, below average volume. That shows no sellers, just profit taking. Looking for VMI to bounce up off this second test of the breakout and give us a nice entry point to the next leg higher.
Volume: 313.73K Avg Volume: 351.955K
BUY POINT: $114.75 Volume=525K Target=$129.95 Stop=$110.91
POSITION: VMI IC - Sept. $115c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/vmi.html
CONTINUING POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/10/2008
BUCY (Bucyrus International--$72.90; -0.60; optionable): Large cranes used in mining, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bucy.html
EARNINGS: 7-24-08
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. Still testing the 10 day EMA on low volume, biding its time while the market goes through its gyrations. Still in position, just waiting for the next break higher. To recap: BUCY broke out in mid-April, clearing a 4 month base; ragged base, but a base. It was enough to support this run, taking BUCY up the 18 day EMA (70.21) to 75. It has come back to test last Fridays gap higher, tapping at the 10 day EMA (71.88) on the Tuesday low. Low, below average volume on that move. BUCY is getting a bit long in the tooth on this move, but it still shows strong upside volume and we are looking for another strong leg out of BUCY to bank us a solid gain off this test of the 10 day.
Volume: 1.451M Avg Volume: 2.293M
BUY POINT: $73.12 Volume=2.8M Target=$83.95 Stop=$71.66
POSITION: HIK JV - Oct. $72.50c (52 delta) or HIK GV - July $72.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bucy.html
Play Date: 06/10/2008
STLD (Steel Dynamics--$36.75; -0.31; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stld.html
EARNINGS: Third week of April
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Still testing, holding at the 18 day EMA on the Thursday close. Nice handle forming and just waiting for STLD to make the break higher and give us the buy point. To recap: Broke higher last week on strong volume, clearing an 8 week base. Coming back on lower volume to test and form a handle, tapping the 10 day EMA (37.16) on the Tuesday low, rebounding to cut the losses. Nice higher low setting up a new breakout to a new all-time high.
Volume: 4.594M Avg Volume: 4.708M
BUY POINT: $38.48 Volume=6.5M Target=$36.75 Stop=$36.68
POSITION: RQL HU - Aug. $37.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/stld.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/11/2008
ESMK (Esmark, Inc.--$20.31; +0.33; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esmk.html
EARNINGS: Announced 6-9-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle breakout. Gapped higher Thursday but on very, very low volume. With the trade we were reluctant to move in despite moving past the buy point. If it holds and continues higher, however, we will pick up a few positions. To recap: Strong volume, surging to well above average levels as ESMK breaks out from a 7 month base, moving to a new all-time closing high. A new issue in late November 2007, this base is basically the life cycle of the stock so far. Nice set up and a nice break higher with volume and a strong price move. Ready to move into this stock as it continues the breakout.
Volume: 118.156K Avg Volume: 481.094K
BUY POINT: $20.14 Volume=550K Target=$24.22 Stop=$18.73
POSITION: IDF HD - Aug. $20c (51 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/esmk.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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