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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside: Some select upside plays from several sectors.
Play Date: 06/14/2008
APH (Amphenol Corp.--$48.75; +0.90; optionable): Electronic equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/aph.html
EARNINGS: Mid-July
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Great volume Thursday and Friday as APH held near support in the handle at the 18 day EMA (47.35) and broke higher. Solid 5.5 month base has consolidated a good second half 2007 run. During the recent market selling APH held its gains, not phased by the distribution. Excellent strength and that is what you want in this market. Looking to move in as it continues the breakout move.
Volume: 1.952M Avg Volume: 1.158M
BUY POINT: $49.08 Volume=1.2M Target=$56.88 Stop=$47.22
POSITION: APH JI - Oct. $45c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/aph.html
Play Date: 06/14/2008
CF (CF Industries--$155.08; +5.79; optionable): Agricultural chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cf.html
EARNINGS: Late July
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. While the market sold, CF put the finishing touches on an 8 week base that is consolidating a strong 55 point run in April. Nice test in the second leg down to the 90 day SMA, undercutting the first bottom in the pattern; classic double bottom action. Jumped higher on strong volume, then spent the past week moving laterally as the market sold, forming the lateral consolidation called the handle that immediately precedes the breakout. Moved higher Friday though volume did not move with it. Looking for more trade this week as CF makes the breakout move.
Volume: 1.951M Avg Volume: 2.744M
BUY POINT: $155.54 Volume=4M Target=$185.95 Stop=$152.88
POSITION: CF HZ - Aug. $155c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cf.html
Play Date: 06/14/2008
FLIR (Flir Systems--$38.52; +2.76; optionable): Scientific and technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flir.html
EARNINGS: Third week July
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. FLIR is testing the nice May breakout and run out of a 6.5 month cup with handle base of sorts. Peaked just over 40 on that initial move and then used the market selling last week to test, coming back to the top of the base on low volume, coming within a point of the 50 day EMA (35.14). Friday it reversed the selling, gapping higher and rallying on a very strong shot of above average volume, the best trade of the month. Looking to move in as FLIR continues higher, flirting with a new all-time high.
Volume: 2.333M Avg Volume: 1.26M
BUY POINT: $38.68 Volume=1.3M Target=$44.75 Stop=$36.31
POSITION: FFQ JG - Oct. $35c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/flir.html
Play Date: 06/14/2008
MDR (McDermott Intl.--$62.60; +1.06; optionable): Heavy construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mdr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-12-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Got out of MDR last week in the market selling, not wanting to take chances, but MDR checked up at the 18 day EMA (61.66), bouncing back to hold that level on the close. Friday it bounced up off that near support though volume remained very low, the lowest of the month. Solid 5 month ascending base, good breakout on strong volume. Looking for a bit more trade as it moves higher off the test of that near support.
Volume: 1.399M Avg Volume: 2.422M
BUY POINT: $63.08 Volume=2.8M Target=$72.95 Stop=$60.77
POSITION: MDR HL - Aug. $60c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mdr.html
Play Date: 06/14/2008
MPWR (Monolithic Power Systems--$24.34; +0.98; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mpwr.html
EARNINGS: Late July
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. MPWR surged out of a 8 month cup with handle base in early June, but in the selling the past two weeks it gave that move up and landed back at the 50 day EMA (22.80). You don't like to see a stock give up a breakout, but this one is a bit different. It is perched just below a new all-time high, and on the test it bounced off the 50 day EMA on very strong volume, holding its pattern together. Money flow is strong and is moving back up ahead of price. Looks very good to resume the breakout, and as it does on continued good volume we want to be there with it.
Volume: 1.487M Avg Volume: 706.115K
BUY POINT: $24.91 Volume=1.5M Target=$29.95 Stop=$23.17
POSITION: QPU IX - Sept. $22.50c (68 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mpwr.html
Play Date: 06/14/2008
XLNX (Xilinx--$27.47; +1.41; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xlnx.html
EARNINGS: 7-16-08
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Taking another look at XLNX as it comes off a test of its 50 day EMA (25.90), bouncing off a Thursday hammer doji at that level. Volume was great, the strongest of the week as it made that move. That shows the sellers were not as strong as the buyers Friday. XLNX is looking for the breakout from a 14 month cup base of sorts, and on a continued move on volume like Friday and we are looking to move into XLNX again.
Volume: 8.311M Avg Volume: 7.206M
BUY POINT: $27.68 Volume=10M Target=$32.95 Stop=$26.14
POSITION: XLQ IE - Sept. $25c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/xlnx.html
Downside:
Play Date: 06/14/2008
PCU (Southern Copper--$103.98; +2.68; optionable): Copper
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcu.html
EARNINGS: Late July
STATUS: Put. Not all commodities are working positively. PCU has formed a broad top the past 9 weeks, failing an attempt to move back through the 200 day SMA near 112 after breaking it in late May and bumbling around in an attempt to get back through. Last week was tough as it sold down to 100 and then bounced Friday, but doing so on lower, below average volume. May come back up a bit more to the 10 day EMA (106.42); if it does that gives us an even better downside play. It closed well off its Friday intraday high, however, so it may just continue on to the downside. If it does we are willing to move in there as well. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 1.482M Avg Volume: 1.9M
BUY POINT: $103.48 Volume=2M Target=$97.38 Stop=$105.91
POSITION: PCU SA - July $105p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pcu.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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