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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
New Pre-Announcement plays contained in that section.
Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 06/14/2008
ERES (Eresearch Tech--$15.78; -0.08; optionable): Medical labs and research
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eres.html
EARNINGS: Early August
STATUS: Ascending base. Big breakout move in early May on the earnings announcement. Strong move out of a 7 month base. After that move it has held onto the gains, working in 6 week lateral consolidation making higher lows up the 18 day EMA (15.53) below a constant top at 16.30ish. Perennial market leader that is set up well to breakout once more and lead higher.
Volume: 417.629K Avg Volume: 575.825K
BUY POINT: $16.38 Volume=850K Target=$19.75 Stop=$15.31
POSITION: UDB IC - Sept. $15c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/eres.html
Play Date: 06/14/2008
FLIR (Flir Systems--$38.52; +2.76; optionable): Scientific and technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flir.html
EARNINGS: Third week July
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. FLIR is testing the nice May breakout and run out of a 6.5 month cup with handle base of sorts. Peaked just over 40 on that initial move and then used the market selling last week to test, coming back to the top of the base on low volume, coming within a point of the 50 day EMA (35.14). Friday it reversed the selling, gapping higher and rallying on a very strong shot of above average volume, the best trade of the month. Looking to move in as FLIR continues higher, flirting with a new all-time high.
Volume: 2.333M Avg Volume: 1.26M
BUY POINT: $38.68 Volume=1.3M Target=$44.75 Stop=$36.31
POSITION: FFQ JG - Oct. $35c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/flir.html
Play Date: 06/14/2008
MDR (McDermott Intl.--$62.60; +1.06; optionable): Heavy construction
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mdr.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-12-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Got out of MDR last week in the market selling, not wanting to take chances, but MDR checked up at the 18 day EMA (61.66), bouncing back to hold that level on the close. Friday it bounced up off that near support though volume remained very low, the lowest of the month. Solid 5 month ascending base, good breakout on strong volume. Looking for a bit more trade as it moves higher off the test of that near support.
Volume: 1.399M Avg Volume: 2.422M
BUY POINT: $63.08 Volume=2.8M Target=$72.95 Stop=$60.77
POSITION: MDR HL - Aug. $60c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mdr.html
Play Date: 06/14/2008
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$33.65; +1.55; optionable): Apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
EARNINGS: 8-14-08
STATUS: Ascending base. A nice run from February through April needed a consolidation, and the current 7 week base is consolidating that run, looking quite similar to another consolidation in December and January. Volume was up on the upside sessions in a quiet volume week for most stocks as URBN broke higher off a second test in the pattern, making a higher low at the 90 day SMA. Strong volume again Friday as URBN moved higher and cleared the peak in the middle of the base. Strong action and looking to move in as URBN continues its upside run.
Volume: 3.975M Avg Volume: 4.043M
BUY POINT: $33.81 Volume=5M Target=$38.95 Stop=$31.55
POSITION: URQ IZ - Sept. $32.50c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/urbn.html
Leader plays:
Play Date: 06/14/2008
CF (CF Industries--$155.08; +5.79; optionable): Agricultural chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cf.html
EARNINGS: Late July
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. While the market sold, CF put the finishing touches on an 8 week base that is consolidating a strong 55 point run in April. Nice test in the second leg down to the 90 day SMA, undercutting the first bottom in the pattern; classic double bottom action. Jumped higher on strong volume, then spent the past week moving laterally as the market sold, forming the lateral consolidation called the handle that immediately precedes the breakout. Moved higher Friday though volume did not move with it. Looking for more trade this week as CF makes the breakout move.
Volume: 1.951M Avg Volume: 2.744M
BUY POINT: $155.54 Volume=4M Target=$185.95 Stop=$152.88
POSITION: CF HZ - Aug. $155c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cf.html
Play Date: 06/14/2008
NSM (National Semiconductor--$23.45; +0.53; optionable): Semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nsm.html
EARNINGS: Announced 6-5-08
STATUS: Test breakout. NSM broke sharply higher to start June, then gapped higher on its earnings, clearing a 4 week handle to its 12 month base. Strong break higher then used the market selling last week to test the break higher and fill the gap, holding the 10 day EMA (22.71) on the low then bouncing Friday to start the next move up. No volume that session, but no issue with that; it was a Friday in the summer. Looking for a bit more trade this week, however, as it continues the move, and with that we are in.
Volume: 5.787M Avg Volume: 6.749M
BUY POINT: $23.89 Volume=7M Target=$27.95 Stop=$22.57
POSITION: NSM HX - Aug. $22.50c (63 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nsm.html
Downside:
Play Date: 06/14/2008
PCU (Southern Copper--$103.98; +2.68; optionable): Copper
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcu.html
EARNINGS: Late July
STATUS: Put. Not all commodities are working positively. PCU has formed a broad top the past 9 weeks, failing an attempt to move back through the 200 day SMA near 112 after breaking it in late May and bumbling around in an attempt to get back through. Last week was tough as it sold down to 100 and then bounced Friday, but doing so on lower, below average volume. May come back up a bit more to the 10 day EMA (106.42); if it does that gives us an even better downside play. It closed well off its Friday intraday high, however, so it may just continue on to the downside. If it does we are willing to move in there as well. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 1.482M Avg Volume: 1.9M
BUY POINT: $103.48 Volume=2M Target=$97.38 Stop=$105.91
POSITION: PCU SA - July $105p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pcu.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Dogged by rumors regarding Job's health. Finally buyers moved in Friday after a big test lower.
APD: Tentatively set for third week of July
ATW: Researching date
BHI: Tentatively set for late July
CLB: A wildcard with no splits. Tentatively set for July
COP: Forecast July
CW: Tentatively set for third week of July
ETN: Researching date
GGB: Researching date. Starting to break higher once more
GILD: Researching date. Nice break higher off the 50 day EMA test Friday, rising some rising, above average volume higher.
HES: Forecast July
IBM: Trying to come off a 50 day EMA test.
JEC: Mid-July. Trying to bounce off the 50 day EMA test.
JOYG: Testing the 18 day EMA after its last run
MICC: Forecast third week of July
MTRX: Forecast early July
PX: Late July
RS: Mid-July
SCHN: Researching date
TMO: Tentatively set for July
VMI: Mid-July
WDR: Researching date
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/14/2008
ACS (Affiliated Computer--$56.46; +2.17; optionable): IT software for the defense and other industries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acs.html
EARNINGS: Announce 5-1-08
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Surged out of a 9 month reverse head and shoulders base to start May, running higher on strong earnings. Interesting twist to the pattern: a double bottom at the lows. In any event the breakout reversed and ACS moved back to the breakout point, working laterally in May and early June. The 50 day EMA (53.06) rose to meet it and Friday ACS surged off that support on a strong shot of volume. Looking to move in as it continues the run higher and then adding some positions as it makes the test of this strong upside move.
Volume: 2.342M Avg Volume: 903.711K
BUY POINT: $56.62 Volume=925K Target=$64.95 Stop=$54.48
POSITION: ACS JK - Oct. $55c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/acs.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/09/2008
BHI (Baker Hughes--$85.60; -0.69; optionable): Oil and gas service
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bhi.html
EARNINGS: 7-22-08
STATUS: reverse head and shoulders. Still holding support at 85 on low volume, still in position for the breakout move. Just being patient and letting the move come up to us. To recap: BHI broke higher in mid-May, clearing the neckline at 85 in its 8 month base. It has moved laterally in a 5 point range following the initial breakout move. It is making a higher low at the 10 day EMA (87.35), bumping at the breakout point from its short consolidation range. Looking for a bit more trade as it makes the break higher.
Volume: 3.713M Avg Volume: 4.427M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $87.77. Breakout: $90.48 Volume=6.5M Target=$104.95 Stop=$87.22
POSITION: BHI JR - Oct. $90c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bhi.html
Play Date: 06/12/2008
MON (Monsanto--$137.26; +2.33; optionable): Ag
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mon.html
EARNINGS: 6-25-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Bounced off the 10 day EMA Friday to post a decent gain though volume did not move up with it. Still a buy on this move. To recap: MON has made us good money, and after an incredible 2007 run it needed a new base, and it has formed a 5 month ascending pattern, breaking out to start June. It rallied to 140 and has come back to near support to test that move, holding the 10 day EMA (133) this week, showing a nice tight doji at that level Thursday. Nice test and ready to move in as MON holds and starts back up on some solid trade.
Volume: 4.777M Avg Volume: 7.34M
BUY POINT: New: On a continued move from the Friday close on stronger volume (orig. $136.48) Volume=10M Target=$156.95 Stop=$132.57
POSITION: MFP JG - Oct. $135c (52 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/mon.html
CONTINUING POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/10/2008
BUCY (Bucyrus International--$75.41; +2.51; optionable): Large cranes used in mining, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bucy.html
EARNINGS: 7-24-08
STATUS: Test 10 day EMA. Started moving up off the 10 day EMA Friday, rising past the midweek highs and holding the gain. Took some positions on that move and looking for more at its next pause. To recap: BUCY broke out in mid-April, clearing a 4 month base; ragged base, but a base. It was enough to support this run, taking BUCY up the 18 day EMA (70.21) to 75. It has come back to test last Fridays gap higher, tapping at the 10 day EMA (71.88) on the Tuesday low. Low, below average volume on that move. BUCY is getting a bit long in the tooth on this move, but it still shows strong upside volume and we are looking for another strong leg out of BUCY to bank us a solid gain off this test of the 10 day.
Volume: 1.319M Avg Volume: 2.272M
BUY POINT: $75.65 (orig. $73.12) Volume=2.8M Target=$83.95 Stop=$71.66
POSITION: HIK JV - Oct. $72.50c (52 delta) or HIK GV - July $72.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/bucy.html
Play Date: 06/05/2008
NKE (Nike--$68.99; +2.21; optionable): Sports apparel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nke.html
EARNINGS: 6-25-08
STATUS: Flat base. Strong volume on the upside Friday as NKE put in a good move off the 50 day EMA in its 11 week base. Indeed, NKE is showing some strong volume spikes the past two weeks on the upside moves. Strong and looks ready to make the break higher, earnings or no earnings.
Volume: 3.398M Avg Volume: 3.721M
BUY POINT: $70.39 Volume=4.5M Target=$80.95 Stop=$67.21
POSITION: NKE JN - Oct. $70c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/nke.html
Play Date: 06/12/2008
SF (Stifel Financial--$38.60; +1.42; optionable): Investment brokerage. Splits 3:2 on 6-13-08
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sf.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Moved higher through the split Friday, moving up off the 18 day EMA on some brisk trade. Nice action and still a buy as it continues the move higher. To recap: Split Friday and continued higher in its great pattern. Nice 9 month base with a 4-week handle forming, showing a nice spike in volume Thursday as SF tried to break higher but then faded back. Very solid base forming just below the old high, ready to make the breakout and run to a new high once more.
Volume: 242.183K Avg Volume: 198.605K
BUY POINT: New: On a continued move higher (orig. $38.48) Volume=300K Target=$44.65 Stop=$36.36
POSITION: SF GG - July $35c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/sf.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/12/2008
CHK (Chesapeake Energy--$59.26; +0.97; optionable): Natural gas exploration and production
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chk.html
EARNINGS: Late July
STATUS: Test breakout. Held the 10 day EMA (57.80) to end the week, bouncing off that level Friday though volume remained low. Nice gap, nice test, and just looking for the break higher this week. To recap: CHK gapped higher last Friday on that big oil surge, clearing a short 4 week base that tested the 50 day EMA (53.66) on the low, using that key level as support. After a breakout and run higher up the 18 day EMA from April through May it could have used another test of the 50 day EMA and it took it. After that jump higher it has tested back to the 10 day EMA, tapping that level on the Friday low and rebounding modestly. Looking for it to hold this level and then start a new move up the 10 and 18 day EMA.
Volume: 7.463M Avg Volume: 12.616M
BUY POINT: $59.78 Volume=15M Target=$68.95 Stop=$57.38
POSITION: CHK JL - Oct. $60c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/chk.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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