stock watch, stock split

Begin Part 3 of 3

CPS (Choicepoint--$54.82; +0.71; optionable): Business Services. Forecast to announce a split on 4-18-02 in conjunction with earnings. At this time the company cannot confirm the date for the release, but based upon our research this is the date for the release. There is going to be a mid quarter conference call on 3-14-02 and we will watch that as well.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cps.html
BACKGROUND: Last announced a 3:2 split on 1-31-01 with a board meeting at a price of $53. Before that CPS announced a 2:1 split on 10-20-99 at a price of $63. The company has sufficient shares for a 3 for 2 split.
STATUS: Made a bit of a move today, but for a breakout we need more strength. CPS has pulled into a tight pennant, holding recent support in the pattern over the 18 day MVA (53.90). After the doji Thursday over that level with sharply higher volume, we were looking for a bounce, and it started, but volume was back down at 198,700 (average 215,500). Since its last split a year ago, CPS has dashed back up into range, as splitting stocks often do. It has been on a nice uptrend, hitting 55.40 before pulling into the present pattern. Looking for a stronger move and an upside breakout. Target: 62.
BUY POINT: 55.10 on volume of 310,000. Stop: 51.75.
POSITION: Stock and/or July $50 calls to buy (CPS GJ - low open interest; plenty at $55).

ESI (ITT Educational Services--$44.96; +0.66; optionable): Education & Training. Working on a date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/esi.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that ESI has ever split its stock.
STATUS: In the handle of a cup with handle dating back to July (high 46.25). ESI was battling to get back to that high, and broke from a small handle at the beginning of the month, but pulled back into the range of the former consolidation with a new handle. It has bounced back a bit now, although volume has been low. Friday ESI pushed up to close just under the new handle high (45.35), but volume continued to be so low (102,300; average 128,400). Looking for an infusion of volume for the breakout. Target: 54
BUY POINT: 45.45 on volume of 200,000. Stop: 42.27 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or July $35 calls to buy (ESI GH - no open interest as yet).

PRE-SPLITS BEST PLAYS: PMI made the bounce as it continues to trend upward.
Remember, we try to grab Pre-Splits as they break out of good patterns or as they start a run right before the split. Not looking for home runs, but looking for those $3 to $4 moves running into the split, watching for topping signs and potential resistance. Not huge money, but it can be very steady. We set our initial stops at the 7-8% range below the purchase price (or just below obvious support), and move them up on a move to preserve our profits.
1) WTNY - New play breaks out!
2) DF - Solid recovery
3) MKC - Nice move
4) WRI - Wild Friday

WTNY (Whitney Holding--$49.48; +0.58): Regional Bank. Splits 3:2 effective 4-10-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wtny.html
STATUS: Recently broke from a two-month consolidation, and then pulled into another, shorter consolidation that served as a handle to a cup dating back to August. Friday WTNY broke out with a very strong move, taking out the prior high of 49.10 on big volume (62,300; average 29,600). Good move, and targeting 56 on this move.
PLAY: A buy up to 51.56. Stock only.

DF (Dean Foods--$72.01; +1.86; optionable): Splits 2:1 effective 4-24-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/df.html
STATUS: Dipped hard out of its handle this week, but Friday made a good bid at recovery. Volume kicked in (615,800; average 547,700) as the stock pushed back up through its short-term MVA's (10 & 18 day at 71.06 and 70.45), back into the range of the handle to the cup pattern (formed since late December). Looking for a continued move and breakout. The handle high is up at 73.40, and on a breakout we are targeting 80.
PLAY: Breakout: 73.50 on volume of 840,000, with stock and/or June $70 calls to buy (DF FN - May available Monday). Stop: 69.

MKC (McCormick--$48.41; +1.14; optionable): Food & Beverage. Splits 2:1 effective 4-9-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mkc.html
STATUS: Moving back up after the test. MKC broke from a five-month saucer in February, hitting a high of 49.57 before pulling back. The drop took the stock back to the former highs in the pattern, tapping as its 50 day MVA (45.79) at its lows before heading back up. Thursday it snuck back over its short-term MVA's (18 day at 47.14), then Friday it really gathered steam, pushing up with strong volume (333,700; average 191,000), hitting an intraday high of 48.80 before pulling back to close. Looking for a continuation of this run and a move over the high.
PLAY: Momentum: Over 48.80, with stock and/or June $45 calls to buy (MKC FI - 81 open interest). Stop: 46.50. New high: Over 49.57, same positions. Stop: 46.50.

WRI (Weingarten Realty--$51.02; +0.52): REIT. Splits 3:2 effective 4-16-02.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wri.html
STATUS: Showing that erratic behavior we can get with pre-splits. WRI broke out its saucer (dating to November), moving off of its 50 day MVA (then 49.50, now 49.83) and hitting a high of 51.65. It peeled back to test the former pattern highs (and 18 day MVA, at 50.45), and then gapped down toward the 50 day Friday before surging back up. A wild day saw WRI hit up to 51.60 before pulling back to close, moving on the same solid volume (137,500; average 77,300) we saw on Thursday's doji. We will see if the move down to close does not rule the momentum, watching for the stock to hold here and continue moving up.
PLAY: Aggressive: Over 51.20, with stock. Stop: 49.60.

CONTINUING CANDIDATES BEST PLAYS: BBY made a good move.
1) RYL - Set for more of a fall
2) MI - Trying to breakout
3) PII - Again a strong move
4) INVN - Still testing the breakout

RYL (Ryland Group--$88.70; -1.86; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/r/ryl.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that RYL has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-25-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2 for 1 split.
STATUS: RYL made a great run for us since breaking from a reverse head and shoulders in November, most recently breaking from a lateral consolidation last month and hitting a high of 97.70. It has pulled back from that high, and Friday fell back through the 18 day MVA (89.56), selling on strong volume (698,000; average 454,200). We will see if it makes a quick recovery back over that former support, but if it cannot hold we will look at a put play with a target of 82 (50 day MVA at 81.74, with the prior consolidation highs).
BUY POINT: From here or after a failed test of the 18 day, a drop through 87.90 on continued strong volume.
POSITION: July $95 puts to buy (RYL SS - very low open interest. May puts available Monday).

MI (Marshall & Ilsley--$63.00; +1.06; optionable): Banking: Regional. We are researching a forecast date.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mi.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that MI has ever split its stock. The annual shareholder meeting was on 4-24-01 at which time no additional shares were authorized. The company has sufficient shares for a 2:1 split.
STATUS: MI broke out from a reverse head and shoulders earlier this month, and now has formed a handle to a cup formed since December (high of 64.20). After tapping down toward its 18 day MVA (61.71) for the last several sessions, Friday saw MI make a gap up and make a move on stronger volume (483,400; average 398,000), retreating from an intraday high of 63.30 to close. We want to see more volume on a move up. Target was 67 for the head and shoulders breakout, but if we get sufficient volume on a move from here we will adjust our target to 69.
BUY POINT: 63.40 on volume of 600,000. Stop: 58.96.
POSITION: Stock and/or June $60 calls to buy (MI FL - low open interest).

PII (Polaris Industries--$65.30; +1.30; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pii.html
STATUS: PII made a great breakout last week from a lateral consolidation over the 50 day MVA (57.84), and since that time has held on strong with another lateral consolidation, digesting its gains. The action was good as PII pulled back on light volume, making a strong move Friday, hitting a new high of 65.95 as volume spiked back up to 181,000 (130,500). The target on the initial breakout was 69, but on a continued strong move from here we will adjust that to 72.
BUY POINT: Over 66 on continued strong volume. Stop: 61.47.
POSITION: Stock and/or June $60 calls to buy (PII FL - 51 open interest).

INVN (Invision Technologies--$45.50; +0.93; optionable):
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/invn.html
BACKGROUND: Based upon our research it does not appear that INVN has ever split its stock. The company has sufficient shares for a 3:2 split.
STATUS: After its nice breakout Tuesday, INVN has come back to test the move. It dropped back below the prior pattern highs (closing 45.50), but volume has steadily and dipped and Friday INVN showed a loose doji with volume down to 927,300 (average 2.24 million). Looking for a hold here and a strong move back up for new or additional positions. Still targeting 57.
BUY POINT: After showing it can hold the 10 day, a move back over 46.25 on above average volume. Stop: 43 (7%).
POSITION: Stock and/or July $40 calls to buy (FQQ GH).

POST SPLITS BEST PLAYS:
1) CHBS - Setting up for a move
2) SONC - Nice bounce

CHBS (Christopher & Banks--$30.80; 0.00; optionable): Split 3:2 in December.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chbs.html
STATUS: Has really rebounded with strength, moving back over the 50 day MVA (29.42) last week. After that strong run CHBS has settled back a bit, tapping at the 50 day Wednesday, but holding nicely as volume has dipped with the price (Friday 232,300; average 492,000). Looking for a strong move over the recent high in this little consolidation, which would also take the stock over one of its short-term down trendlines (connecting December-January highs).
PLAY: On a move over 31.30 with volume of 600,000, stock and/or June $26.63 calls to buy (ULH FW).

SONC (Sonic--$26.05; +0.97; optionable): Split 3:2 effective 2-11-02
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sonc.html
STATUS: The last run hit a high of 28.78, and SONC made an abrupt retreat but caught strong support at the former highs at 26 (February), which is at the 50 day MVA (25.57). After a high volume doji Thursday, SONC bounced nicely Friday, showing strong volume (697,400; average 260,000) and closing back over the short-term MVA's (26.72). Looking for more. Target: Watching the high, targeting 31.
PLAY: Aggressive momentum: Over 27.25 on continued strong volume, with stock and/or June 23.38 calls to buy (ISV FV).

WATCHLISTS:

PRE-ANNOUNCEMENTS WATCHLIST: ACDO, AHC (4/24), AROW, BMS, BRL, CTAS, EXPD, GTK, LE, PDCO, RNR, STU and XL.

SLM ($96.80; +2.09): Researching a new date. Strong run Friday, making a new high (prior high on intraday spikes up to 96.27) as it surged on strong volume (up to 1.17 million; average 787,200). This is the third surge from the 18 day since the breakout in January, and we could get one more on this run to 100 (targeting 105).

LSTR ($94.40; +1.60): Researching a new date. Blasted up with a breakout move Wednesday, but showing some erratic action as LSTR gapped back to 91.14 and then moved back up for a new high. Volume dipped back to the average (63,300), so we will continue to ride it toward a target of 100, watching the 10 day MVA (90) for near support.

RUS ($31.45; +0.02): Looking at a date in mid-April, and we are working to narrow that down. Still looking decent in its lateral consolidation, and Friday it gapped down below the support of the 18 day MVA (31.39) but pushed back up to close on much higher volume (36,400; average 22,500). Looking for the breakout, with a buy point of 31.95 on volume of 34,000. Stock only.

DRYR ($41.77; -0.53): Forecast to announce a split with earnings on 4-24-02 before the open. Dipped all the way back to the 50 day MVA (41.05) Wednesday, tapping that level at its low again on Friday. We will see if it can hold and bounce back, with the breakout at 44.98 on volume of 390,000.

BER ($57.04; +0.20): Researching a new announcement date. Looked to be ready to pull back to the 10 day (56.06) after pulling off of its intraday high Thursday, but Friday BER gapped down and then pushed back up on even bigger volume (231,100; average 127,200). The aggressive can look at a continued move over 57.22 on continued strong volume, with stock and/or July $55 calls to buy (BER GK). The high (left side of cup) is at 58.40.

SUI ($40.00; +0.01): Forecast to announce a split with a board meeting on 4-01-02. Continues in its consolidation, testing the 10 day MVA (39.72) but pushing back up again to close. On a move over 40.19 on volume of 60,000, stock.

CYN ($52.90; +1.01): Forecast to announce a split with earnings 4-16-02 before the open. Trending up, having moved out of its ascending wedge. CYN made a decent move Friday up from its 10 day MVA (52), but volume was quite low (145,200). Holding positions on a move toward the target of 60, but it needs more momentum.

DRS ($38.10; -1.50): Has again retreated to the 50 day MVA (38.18). In a large ascending wedge, and we will see if it can hold and make a move up to the recent high of 42.80.

PRE SPLITS WATCHLIST: Watching DHI and CUB (showing topping signs, so protecting those positions).

PMI ($75.35; +1.50): Splits 2:1, effective date TBA. PMI is at the highs of a 16-month double bottom, and has been trending steadily up the 18 day MVA (72.85). The stock has made another nice move from that support in the last couple of sessions, Friday making a new all-time high at 75.76 as volume continued to be strong (down slightly to 355,200; average 246,500). An aggressive play from here as the stock continues toward our target of 80. June $70 calls to buy (PMI FN).

JEC ($70.36; -0.41): Splits 2:1 on April 2. Trying to move out of its short consolidation over the 10 day MVA (69.48), but could not continue Thursday's move. JEC had pulled back to test its recent move, where it hit 72.96 before an abrupt drop that has held strong at the 10 day. On a move over 71.20, stock and/or July $65 calls to buy (JEC GM). Stop: 68.

SMD ($26.00; -0.40): Splits 3:2 effective 3-18-02. Nice move going into the split, and we will watch positions carefully to see if it can hold up and sustain upward momentum, or if it shows a post-split slump that takes it back down. The recent consolidation levels are with the 18 day MVA at 24.

THQI ($46.96; -1.66): Splits 3:2 effective 4-10-02. Dipped back again Friday, falling to its 50 day MVA (47.09) as volume remained below average (1.07 million; average 1.33 million). Languishing a bit with the Nasdaq, and with the promising pattern now gone we will see if it can hang on.

ICUI ($49.50; -0.48): Splits 3:2 effective 3-18-02. Holding the 50 day (49.35), showing its third consecutive doji going into the split. We will see if it can hold and generate a bounce.

WLP ($123.50; -0.26): Announced a 2:1 split, effective March 18. Is holding onto the 50 day MVA (122.08) going into the split Monday. After showing us some downside, WLP has moved back over the 50 day, and although that move was weak it is holding onto that level, now as support. If it can hold post-split we can look at a move.

CONTINUING CANDIDATES WATCHLIST: When splits are not announced, we will keep the best split prospects on the report rather than continue to carry all of them in case there is a an unexpected announcement. We will continue to monitor the stocks that are trimmed and add them again when we ascertain a revised split announcement date. These include APPB, AZO, BBBY, DHR, DIAN, EDS, GNSS, GOSHA, HB, LLL, RARE, RYL, STJ, TGH, TGIC, THC and YUM.

BBY ($78.91; +2.30): Made the breakout over the January high (77.20), however the recent run up has been on rather weak volume (Friday volume was sharply up at 3.18 million; average 2.9 million). Looking for more volume on a run from here, watching resistance from prior levels at 80, and the all-time high at 88.88). Still a buy up to 81 on this move, but we want volume in the 4 million range. June $75 calls to buy (BBY FO).

ETH ($39.33; -0.39): ETH's break back over the right shoulder high in its former head-and-shoulders pattern has given way to a pullback to the 50 day MVA (39.17). Looking for a hold, with the aggressive play over 40.50 on volume of 350,000, with stock and/or May $35 calls to buy (ETH EG - low open interest).

IGT ($62.75; +0.49): Has shown support at the 60 level (with the January-February lows), but does not appear inclined to make a run back at the 50 day (64.68), showing a doji on lower volume Friday. We will continue to watch positions for a strong bounce that could chase us from positions. Still watching for a drop, with the target 58.50 (200 day at 58.47.

JCI ($88.57; -1.77): Looked good in a pennant pattern, but Friday JCI succumbed to strong selling (volume 653,200; average 500,000), taking out the recent support of the 18 day MVA (89.43). The 50 day is below at 85.63.

POST SPLITS WATCHLIST: Watching BLL, CHS, GILD, NJR, VAR and XRAY.

ACS ($53.04; +0.46): Split 2:1 on 2-25-02. Erratic now in the handle, drifting up the last few sessions, hitting up to 54.50 Thursday before pulling back to close. The action is not what we were looking for in the handle, which is a gentle drift back on low volume. Looking for it to settle a bit.

BSG ($33.85; +0.15): Split 2:1 on 2-25-02. Having trouble making a solid move, but continues to trend up the short-term MVA's (10 day at 33.14). Off of Friday's higher volume doji (1.01 million; average 522,800), we could see a dip back to the 10 day (18 day at 32.72) before a move. From there, looking for a move over 34 with volume of 600,000, and stock and/or June $30 calls to buy (BSG FF).

MGAM ($33.38; +0.48): Split 3:2 on February 12. MGAM has been making its choppy way up the 18 day MVA (30.83), but looks like it could need a visit back to that level after failing on an attempt to move Wednesday, and showing a couple of slight moves up on light volume. We will look at it after it pulls back and sets up for another bounce.

WERN ($20.89; +0.48): Splits 4:3 on March 15. Moved up on the split, closing just under the recent highs. WERN made a great one-day move at the start of the month, then drifted up a bit, showing the need to pull back. It gapped back to the 18 day MVA (20.02) Friday, but pushed back up on good volume 470,000 (average 318,000). The aggressive can look at new positions with stock on a move over 21.10 on continued strong volume.

Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.

All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.

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