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Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
New Pre-Announcement plays contained in that section.
Post-Split Plays:
Play Date: 06/19/2008
BRCM (Broadcom--$27.22; +1.92; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/brcm.html
EARNINGS: Third week of July
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Looking at BRCM again as it refuses to give up its April run higher that reversed its downtrend. After that surge it has traded for 8 weeks in a trading range from 25 to 29ish. After coming back to the 50 day EMA (25.64) the past week and one-half volume jumped and BRCM jumped off the 50 day Thursday. If it can continue this move on stronger volume it is a buy.
Volume: 19.623M Avg Volume: 14.591M
BUY POINT: $28.12 Volume=20M Target=$32.45 Stop=$26.32
POSITION: RCQ HY - Aug. $27.50c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/brcm.html
Leaders:
Play Date: 06/19/2008
AMSC (American Superconductor--$44.02; +1.36; optionable): Semiconducting materials
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/amsc.html
EARNINGS: Early August
STATUS: Test breakout. Looking at AMSC again as it has consolidated a big move in early June that made us some money and is setting up over the 10 day EMA (41.22). Started to break higher Thursday off of that level on a good shot of rising, above average volume. AMSC is looking for a 7 year high. Strong money flow is leading higher and AMSC is set up again to follow it as a new leader in the market.
Volume: 1.424M Avg Volume: 984.172K
BUY POINT: $44.48 Volume=1.5M Target=$52.45 Stop=$41.37
POSITION: QAY JH - Oct. $40c (69 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/amsc.html
Play Date: 06/19/2008
FSLR (First Solar--$274.32; -1.43; optionable): Solar semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/fslr.html
EARNINGS: Last week of July
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A neat little set up here if it can pull it off. FSLR set up something of a head and shoulders in April and May, selling off to end May by undercutting the early May gains. It sold off through the first week of June but found support near the 90 day SMA and bounced sharply through this week. It then tested back, tapping near the 50 day EMA (265.54) on the low and rebounded. Looking for volume to surge back up as FSLR does the same thing. Can fly when it gets going and if it shows strong volume and gives us a good bounce it can make us some solid money.
Volume: 2.272M Avg Volume: 4.568M
BUY POINT: $279.11 Volume=6.5M Target=$319.95 Stop=$265.94
POSITION: HJQ IU - Sept. $280c (53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/fslr.html
Play Date: 06/19/2008
VRSN (Verisign--$40.79; +1.56; optionable): Web verification certificates, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vrsn.html
EARNINGS: 8-6-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. A seven month base with a somewhat volatile 6 week handle as VRSN trades all around the 18 day EMA. It looks as if the buyers are getting the upper hand, however, as VRSN jumped higher Thursday on stronger, average volume. It needs to blow through the mid-May peak on strong volume to show it has the right stuff for the breakout. Looking for volume to spike higher as VRSN makes the break higher out of the base.
Volume: 3.342M Avg Volume: 3.394M
BUY POINT: $41.32 Volume=5.1M Target=$47.75 Stop=$38.77
POSITION: QVR IH - Sept. $40c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/vrsn.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Rebounding nicely as the rumors of Steve Jobs' illness were greatly exagerated
ACS: Researching date
APD: Tentatively set for third week of July
BHI: Tentatively set for late July
CLB: A wildcard with no splits. Tentatively set for July
COP: Forecast July
CW: Tentatively set for third week of July
ETN: Researching date
GGB: Researching date. Starting to break higher once more
GILD: Researching date. Testing the 50 day EMA.
HES: Forecast July
IBM: Trying to come off a 50 day EMA test.
JEC: Mid-July. Trying to bounce off the 50 day EMA test.
JOYG: Testing the 18 day EMA after its last run
MICC: Forecast third week of July
MTRX: Forecast early July
PX: Late July
RS: Mid-July
SCHN: Researching date
TMO: Tentatively set for July
WDR: Researching date
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/19/2008
GILD (Gilead Sciences--$55.47; +2.02; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gild.html
EARNINGS: Mid-July
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Broke out in late March from a 3 month double bottom with handle base, rallying up the 18 day EMA (54.15) through the start of June. After that run up the short term moving averages it needed a deeper test, and it came back to the 50 day EMA (53) the past week. It held the 50 day showing stronger volume on the upside sessions. Then it broke higher Thursday on the best volume of the month. Strong money flow is leading higher. GILD started to follow it Thursday and if it continues we will be ready to move into positions.
Volume: 8.557M Avg Volume: 6.77M
BUY POINT: $55.69 Volume=7.2M Target=$63.95 Stop=$52.91
POSITION: GDQ HK - Aug. $55c (54 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gild.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/09/2008
BHI (Baker Hughes--$86.28; -0.18; optionable): Oil and gas service
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bhi.html
EARNINGS: 7-22-08
STATUS: reverse head and shoulders. Gapped higher but could not it in the energy selling, but overall BHI's pattern remains solid as it holds the 18 day EMA. Letting it ride this out and waiting for a break higher. To recap: BHI broke higher in mid-May, clearing the neckline at 85 in its 8 month base. It has moved laterally in a 5 point range following the initial breakout move. It is making a higher low at the 10 day EMA (87.35), bumping at the breakout point from its short consolidation range. Looking for a bit more trade as it makes the break higher.
Volume: 4.412M Avg Volume: 4.33M
BUY POINT: Aggressive: $87.77. Breakout: $90.48 Volume=6.5M Target=$104.95 Stop=$87.22
POSITION: BHI JR - Oct. $90c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bhi.html
CONTINUING POST SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/17/2008
GPN (Global Payments--$48.38; +0.73; optionable): Payment systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gpn.html
EARNINGS: Late June but no definite date yet
STATUS: Cup. Testing back Wednesday but holding the 10 day EMA and starting to bounce Thursday. Needs some more trade but GPN looks very good to continue the break higher. To recap: GPN was a stock we played often from 2003 to 2005 as it was in a tremendous uptrend. Such a run necessitates quite a base and for the past 2.5 years GPN has traded in a large, ranging cup base. The past 8 months it has formed a base within that larger pattern, breaking higher to start June, clearing got a new 1.5 year high. It faded back to test, held support at 46, and then started back up this week with a strong Tuesday move on average trade. Nice break higher and looking to move in as GPN continues higher on solid trade. Very nice set up to make a new breakout and run toward a new high.
Volume: 358.974K Avg Volume: 549.066K
BUY POINT: $49.15 Volume=750K Target=$56.75 Stop=$47.05
POSITION: GPN HI - Aug. $45c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gpn.html
Play Date: 06/17/2008
MTL (Mechel Steel Group--$53.67; +1.50; optionable): Steel and iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mtl.html
EARNINGS: Announced 5-29-08
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Volume is starting higher as MTL moves up off the 50 day EMA. Looking good, just needing more trade. To recap: MTL is making a steady run up the 50 day EMA (50.37) and it has come back to test that level after a nice run to end May. Lower volume on the most of the downside sessions, particularly of late. It bottomed then bounced higher Tuesday, moving up on slightly higher volume. Looking for some better trade as MTL continues the move higher off of this key support level.
Volume: 2.871M Avg Volume: 3.697M
BUY POINT: $54.55 Volume=4.2M Target=$65.55 Stop=$51.77
POSITION: MTL JK - Oct. $55c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/mtl.html
Play Date: 06/17/2008
WGOV (Woodward Governor--$39.84; +0.91; optionable): Industrial electrical equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wgov.html
EARNINGS: Third week of July
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Bouncing off the 18 day EMA but no volume as WGOV moves toward the breakout. Very solid. To recap: WGOV broke out from a nicely formed double bottom with handle in mid-May, gapping higher on strong volume. It surged just over 42 and peaked. Spent the past four weeks working laterally over the 18 day EMA (38.64). Now making a higher low after the consolidation, and that typically precedes the next upside move. Very solid, very well set up.
Volume: 399.308K Avg Volume: 638.031K
BUY POINT: $40.55 Volume=950K Target=$48.45 Stop=$38.44
POSITION: GUP JH - Oct. $40c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wgov.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 06/16/2008
CE (Celanese--$49.44; +0.43; optionable): Chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/ce.html
EARNINGS: Third week of July
STATUS: Flying plateau. Still bumping at 50, still waiting for the break higher to hold. Very solid in a weaker market and looks ready to make the break. To recap: Taking another run at CE as it starts the breakout from its 5 week tight lateral consolidation that consolidated the April breakout from its 4.5 month base. Volume rallied on upside trade three sessions in the past week, the last on Monday as CE made the breakout move. Strong money flow is leading the way higher and CE is following. Looking to move in as CE continues the breakout move. Very nice, very sold.
Volume: 1.056M Avg Volume: 1.373M
BUY POINT: $50.08 Volume=2M Target=$57.75 Stop=$47.77
POSITION: CE IJ - Sept. $50c (49 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ce.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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