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stock recommendation, stock investment information
Begin Part 3 of 3
Test of the breakout:
MOLX (Molex--$35.34; +0.59; optionable): Electronics
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/molx.html
STATUS: Deep in a long base, but MOLX finally got back over its 200 day MVA early this month, the first time since the fall of 2000! The stock blasted over the resistance on a move off of its lower 50 day MVA (at this time the latter is ready to cross over the 200 day, a bullish development), and after hitting the March high at 36.56, is testing the move. Find support at the 10 day MVA, MOLX tested the level one more time Friday, then on strong volume started hiking up again. The move wasn't big yet, but the volume is, and we are looking for a new leg up from here, initial target at 40. Strong money flow. Volume was 1.05 million (avg. 676,000).
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 35.50 on continued rising volume. Stop Advisory (7%): 33.02
POSITION: Stock and/or May $30 calls to buy (OXQ EF).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/molx.html
Moving average bounces:
VSEA (Varian Semi--$41.49; +0.90; optionable): Chip Equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/v/vsea.html
STATUS: VSEA is in a 2-year base but off the lows that are around 20. The stock used the 34 level (price support since November) and the 200 day MVA for the recent run that broke it out over the January high and took it up to 45.17, the March closing high. Now VSEA is pulling back, testing support at the 18 day MVA (40.22), from where it bounced Friday on rising volume (578,800; avg. 500,000). Looks like it is gearing up here; the stock shows good money flow and buying, and our target is 50.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 42.25 on continued rising volume (666,000 or higher). Stop Advisory (7%): 39.29
POSITION: Stock and/or May (UES EG or EH) or August (UES HG or HH) $35 or $40 calls to buy. Check for deltas.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/vsea.html
Basing stocks:
WABC (Westamerica--$43.42; +0.66; no options): Regional Banks
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wabc.html
STATUS: Formed a handle to a 14.5-month double bottom and bounded up from the 18 day MVA on Friday (tapped on the low near 42) on strong and sharply higher volume in a breakout move (245,000; avg. 126,318). The "handle" is a test of the breakout from the stock's more recent 6-month base. Highs at the start of the big base are at 44. Looking for follow-through over the March high (43.55). WABC has excellent money flow and good buying. Target: 52
BUY POINT: 43.65 on continued strong volume (minimum breakout volume met at 190,000). Stop Advisory (7%): 40.59
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/wabc.html
PL (Protective Life--$32.32; +0.52; optionable): Insurance
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pl.html
STATUS: Moving up from the base of its handle (8.5-month cup with handle; highs at 35). The stock shot over its 200 day MVA late February for a run into early March, then on the test formed this handle. Volume was strong, up sharply to 397,300 (avg. 215,181) with the stock closing just under the handle high at 32.45. PL hit 32.39 twice this month near that high, so our buy point is based on that potentially stronger resistance level. The stock has strong money flow and good buying. Target: 39
BUY POINT: Breakout: 32.49 on continued strong volume (min. breakout volume met at 323,000). Stop Advisory (7%): 30.22
POSITION: Stock and/or July $25 calls to buy (PL GE).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/pl.html
GCI (Gannett--$76.69; +1.49; optionable): Publishing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gci.html
STATUS: A flying plateau that formed out of a breakout from a pattern that is almost a reverse head and shoulders pattern (the right shoulder is less clear than the first and did not drop as low). The breakout was launched from the 200 day MVA in early February, ultimately taking GCI up to the March closing high at 77.10 as the plateau formed. Friday the stock tested some price support at 75 and was back over its 18 day MVA (75.40) on sharply rising volume in an incipient breakout move! Looking for the break over that recent high on a follow-through. Money flow is leading the way. Target: 93
BUY POINT: 77.20 on continued strong volume. Stop Advisory (7%): 71.80
POSITION: Stock and/or July $70 calls to buy (GCI GN).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gci.html
Puts:
DRI (Darden--$38.99; +0.54; optionable): Restaurants
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dri.html
STATUS: Some of the restaurant stocks have tumbled recently but have moved back up to resistance levels, such as DRI. The stock broke its 50 day MVA Monday on after 2 days of hard selling, but bounced back up the last three days until closing just under that resistance Friday. Volume has been falling on the move up, classic action along with price that suggests the stock will fall again. On that move, looking for a breakdown to the 200 day MVA (32); that was some heavy selling. Volume lower at 1.1 million (avg. 912,000).
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 38.50 on preferably rising volume.
POSITION: July $45 puts to buy (check for deltas; unavailable due to options expiration Friday). DRI SI
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dri.html
EMBT (Embarcadero Tech--$14.93; -1.02; optionable): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/embt.html
STATUS: The stock is in a 4.5-month head and shoulders pattern and looking ready to break down. The stock peaked in the right shoulder at the 50 day MVA (17.14) but has been selling more heavily since it broke the 18 day MVA on Wednesday. On a move below 14, which is just under the neckline at 15 (there is other price support at 14 from August, October and November), look for a fall to 10. Volume 501,900 (avg. 268,000).
BUY POINT: 13.95 (the stock hit 14.05 four times) on continued rising volume.
POSITION: May $20 puts to buy (MBQ QD).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/embt.html
CONTINUED PLAYS:
Puts:
MU (Micron Tech--$33.39; +1.37; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/mu.html
STATUS: Buy point was 32.50 for the put play, and MU met that on a break below its 200 day MVA (33) on Thursday. The stock had other ideas and headed back over that level on Friday, volume lower at 12.7 million (avg. 7.6 million) as the chips rallied back. Still looks weak, so are holding positions and looking for a move back down when the stock hits the 50 day MVA (34.38).
BUY POINT: A hold for put buys at 32.50.
POSITION: July $45 puts to buy (MU SI).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/mu.html
BASING/TRADING RANGES:
SXT (Sensient Tech--$21.85; +0.19; optionable): Food
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sxt.html
STATUS: Moving up in the handle to its 7-month cup with handle (highs near 22.50), volume rising (145,400; avg. 200,000). The handle has support at the 10 day MVA, from where SXT bounced for the small gain. Continued excellent money flow and good buying. Target: 27
BUY POINT: Breakout: 22.15 on volume of 300,000 or higher. Stop Advisory (7%): 20.60
POSITION: Stock and/or July $20 calls to buy (SXT GD).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/sxt.html
SHW (Sherwin-Williams--$28.99; +0.44; optionable): Building Materials
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/shw.html
STATUS: Tested the breakout from the 2-month reverse head and shoulders (that was in a 3.5-month flat base), and Friday was moving up on rising volume, almost clearing the 4-day lateral move in the test (closed at Wednesday's high). The stock broke out of the pattern the previous week and did not give a stellar move, but stocks can often make that up after testing the breakout. Volume was up to 705,200 (avg. 697,400). Money flow and buying look good. Target: 34
BUY POINT: A hold for buys at 28.75. New buy point is 29.50 on volume in the range of 950,000. Stop Advisory (7%): 27.44
POSITION: Stock and/or June $25 calls to buy (SHW FE).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/shw.html
IBM ($106.79; +0.19; optionable): Hardware
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ibm.html
STATUS: Formed a reverse head and shoulders pattern, and is holding support at the 18 day MVA (105.61) but is under resistance, the 50 day MVA (107.34). We are looking for a breakout from the pattern over the 200 day MVA at 108.92. Volume was decreasing the last 2 days, with the stock showing good price volume action, and that continued Friday, the small gain accompanied by a strong shot of volume (10.8 million; avg. 7.8 million). Our target is 115 for options positions, preferred for quicker moves up to resistance.
BUY POINT: 109.10 on volume in the range of 8 million or higher. Stop Advisory (7%): 101.46
POSITION: Stock and/or July $100 calls to buy (IBM GT).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ibm.html
GPC (Genuine Parts--$37.32; +0.22; optionable): Auto Parts Wholesale
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gpc.html
STATUS: Still in the handle to its 11-week cup with handle base, and Friday stronger volume popped the stock up toward resistance in the handle (pivot is right over the March high at 37.61). Volume was higher, just breaking above average levels to 381,900 (avg. 337,000). Looking for the breakout! Strong money flow; target is 45.
BUY POINT: 37.71 on volume of 506,000 or higher. Stop Advisory (7%): 35.07
POSITION: Stock and/or May or August $30 calls to buy (GPC EF or HF; low open interests).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/gpc.html
NATI (National Instruments--$41.70; +0.59; optionable): Computer Peripherals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nati.html
STATUS: NATI pulled back into a new handle to its 9-week double bottom base. It held above the 10 day MVA last week, then Friday tapped near lower support at 40, moving back up on rising volume (166,500; avg. 153,181). Looking for the stronger volume to follow through and break the stock out of the pattern. Excellent money flow. Target is 50.
BUY POINT: 42.72 on volume in the range of 270,000. Stop Advisory (7%): 39.73.
POSITION: Stock and/or June $35 calls to buy (SJQ FG).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/nati.html
SLVN (Sylvan Learning--$25.60; -0.18; optionable): Education & Training
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slvn.html
STATUS: Holding at the 18 day MVA in the handle to the 7-month cup base. Volume was higher Friday (255,600; avg. 443,400) but still well below average, with the stock showing a tight doji. Can't get much lower without breaking support (18 day MVA is at 25.48), so want to see the stock head up from here. Target: 32
BUY POINT: 27.05 on volume of 674,000 or higher. Stop Advisory (7%): 25.16
POSITION: Stock and/or May $22.50 calls to buy (NQV EX).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/slvn.html
SLAB (Silicon Laboratories--$35.00; +0.26; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/slab.html
STATUS: Still looks good in the handle to its 10-week cup base. The stock is holding at the 10 day MVA (33.77) with volume continuing to fall, down Friday to 275,000 (avg. 681,000). Bounced up slightly and looks ready once volume surges in. Great money flow and good buying. Target: 45
BUY POINT: Breakout: 37.29 on volume of 1 million or higher. Stop Advisory (7%): 34.68
POSITION: Stock and/or July $35 calls to buy (QFJ GG). Check for deltas.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/slab.html
WWW (Wolverine World Wide--$17.67; +0.62; optionable): Apparel Footwear
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/www.html
STATUS: Made a nice move up in the handle with volume pushing, sharply higher at 187,600 (avg. 140,000). Close to the buy point for breakout from the 6.5-month cup with handle, and the stock looks ready to make the move. Good buying, strong money flow. Target: 22
BUY POINT: 18.10 on volume of 230,000 or higher. Stop Advisory (7%): 16.83
POSITION: Stock and/or June $15 calls to buy (WWW FC).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/www.html
QLGC (Qlogic--$48.18; +0.04; optionable): Semiconductor
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/q/qlgc.html
STATUS: Still pulling back after the recent run up from below its 200 day MVA; after making the March high at 51.57 QLGC is holding at its 50 day MVA (simple), where the stock closed Friday after tapping the 50 day MVA (exp.) on the low at 47.18. Volume remains low at 7.7 million (avg. 10 million) so we are looking for continued support here for a good bounce. Initial target on the play is 56.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 50.50 on strong, rising volume (10 million or higher). Stop Advisory (7%): 46.97
POSITION: Stock and/or July $40 calls to buy (QLC GH).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/qlgc.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your Technical Traders Report Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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stock recommendation
stock investment information
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