|
|
us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
New Pre-Announcement plays contained in that section.
Post-Split Play:
Play Date: 07/10/2008
ADTN (Adtran--$25.09; +0.28; optionable): Telecom equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/adtn.html
EARNINGS: 7-15-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Earnings are out Tuesday before the open, making this a riskier play, but it is showing good accumulation ahead of the report with an upgrade this week. It is bumping up at the top of its 3 month lateral range that is the handle (the last shakeout and consolidation) in its 12 month base. It surprised in April, sending it higher in its base and starting formation of the right side. Now we anticipate another good report to break it higher. If it moves up we will start taking some positions but not a full one; more around half of our money for this position. If not we will see how it performs Monday and pick up a partial position ahead of the close.
Volume: 1.724M Avg Volume: 970.111K
BUY POINT: $26.22 Volume=2M Target=$31.48 Stop=$24.38
POSITION: RQA KE - Nov. $25c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/adtn.html
New buy point on a current position:
Play Date: 07/10/2008
FLIR (Flir Systems--$42.74; -0.14; optionable): Thermal imaging, infrared camera systems
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/f/flir.html
EARNINGS: 7-24-08
STATUS: Flying plateau. Looking to add some positions as FLIR is setting up for a new break higher with this 6 session lateral move over the 10 day EMA (42). Nice tight flat move on low volume, the calm before the storm, holding back even as money flow moves higher. Ready to move in when it starts higher, showing it is ready for the next run.
Volume: 1.482M Avg Volume: 1.925M
BUY POINT: $43.91 Volume=2.8M Target=$52.75 Stop=$40.97
POSITION: FFQ JH - Oct. $40c (66 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/flir.html
LEADERS:
Play Date: 07/10/2008
PCX (Patriot Coal--$130.37; +4.86; optionable): Coal
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pcx.html
EARNINGS: End of July
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. AS with many of the coal stocks, PCX enjoyed a strong run from May through June, peaking with the market. It has come back in the selling, but it has held the key 50 day EMA (117.91) this past week, tapping it on the low and bouncing up to close higher. That shows a lot of buying and support at that level and in a market rebound PCX is locked and loaded to rebound toward the prior high at 165.
Volume: 1.644M Avg Volume: 991.866K
BUY POINT: $133.55 Volume=1.8M Target=$159.95 Stop=$127.69
POSITION: PCX IV - Sept. $130c (60 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pcx.html
PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS
We consider many stocks for pre-announcement plays every week. We get information regarding upcoming announcements and other data that leads us to conclude a split announcement is coming. Even then, however, we have to be discriminating. We have to see a strong technical pattern as well, and thus we reject many potential candidates based on a weak technical position.
The key today is to find stocks in strong patterns or that are ready to rebound off support. A split announcement will amplify the move higher in these cases as we enjoy moves from strong leaders in position to run higher. We won't chase a stock in a poor technical position even if we know it is going to split; it simply won't do us any good, i.e. it typically won't make us any money to the upside. We could list all stocks we think are going to split, but again, that won't make us any money unless we are in an office pool as to what stocks will or won't announce a stock split.
Current Pre-Announcement Plays:
This is a list of stocks we are looking to announce splits. We are not in all of the potential splits plays but are letting them set up for the next move. In each report we look at the candidates that are in the best patterns ahead of their potential announcements. This focus on leaders in good patterns allows us to make good money even if companies do not announce the split. The key with splits is the pattern and of course the strong earnings growth that put it in the pattern in the first place.
AAPL: Tentatively set for July
ACL: Wildcard that could announce with earnings on 7-23-08
ACS: August 7. Below resistance, above the 200 day SMA, working laterally in a tight range.
AGU: August 6. Trying to hold the 50 day EMA for a new break higher
APD: Tentatively set for third week of July. Still trying to recover off a 200 day SMA test.
BAX: Forecast 7-17-08
BHI: Tentatively set for late July but needs to do something off the 200 day SMA
BTU: Forecast third week of July
CLB: A wildcard with no splits. Tentatively set for third week of July
COP: Forecast third week of July
DO: Wildcard that could give us a split mid-July
FTI: Tentatively set for first week of August
GENZ: Forecast 7-23-08
HES: Forecast last week of July
IBM: Strong volume as IBM bounces off the April consolidation
JOYG: Still trying to find the bottom, now at support at 70
MUR: Tentatively set the last week of July
POT: Forecast 7-24-08
RIG: Forecast 8-6-08
RS: Mid-July
SCHN: Researching date
SII: Forecast 7-24-08
SLB: Forecast 7-18-08
TMX: Wildcard as it has been a long time since a split but a nice pattern. Forecast third week of July
VAR: Forecast third week of July
NEW PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/10/2008
CHK (Chesapeake Energy--$61.58; +3.86; optionable): Natural gas exploration, production
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/chk.html
EARNINGS: Early August
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. CHK held in well but got a bit dicey near the 50 day EMA (59.16). Undercut it, but then Thursday it rebounded and moved back over that level on tremendous volume. Ready to move in as CHK continues the move and looking for a run back up toward the prior high.
Volume: 30.935M Avg Volume: 14.243M
BUY POINT: $61.85 Volume=20M Target=$73.94 Stop=$59.05
POSITION: CHK JL - Oct. $60c (62 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/chk.html
Play Date: 07/10/2008
NCR (NCR Corp.--$26.41; -0.21; optionable): ITS software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/ncr.html
EARNINGS: 7-29-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Working on a handle within a handle to its 8 month base, tapping the 10 day EMA on the low and rebounding. Showing strong upside volume as it sets up for a new breakout to a new high after this base has set a great foundation for another long run. Strong money flow, excellent 9 to 5 accumulation in the base (9 up price weeks on rising volume to 5 down weeks on rising volume) shows plenty of buying and setting the breakout move. Nice.
Volume: 2.408M Avg Volume: 1.523M
BUY POINT: $27.48 Volume=2.3M Target=$32.95 Stop=$25.89
POSITION: NCR JE - Oct. $25c (68 delta, 171 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ncr.html
CONTINUING PRE-ANNOUNCEMENT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/03/2008
TMX (Telefonos De Mexico--$24.00; -0.38; optionable): Fixed line carrier in Mexico, US
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tmx.html
EARNINGS: Third week of July
STATUS: Breakout test. Getting some volume and showing signs of trying for the breakout. Nice pattern, very solid. To recap: TMX broke higher out of a 12 month jagged cup base in late May, surging out of the pattern on strong volume. It rallied into early June, and then when the market sold, TMX came back, testing the breakout and holding the 50 day EMA (23.14) on the close over the past two weeks. It held and started higher last week in a down market, rallying up off of support on strong, above average volume. That is nice action for a stock in this market, and looking to move in as it continues the move off of key support.
Volume: 2.376M Avg Volume: 2.319M
BUY POINT: $24.58 Volume=3M Target=$28.65 Stop=$23.06
POSITION: TMX KX - Nov. $22.50c (62 delta, no OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tmx.html
CONTINUING POST-SPLIT PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/09/2008
ABMD (Abiomed--$18.48; +0.48; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abmd.html
EARNINGS: Mid-August
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Bounced higher Thursday though volume was not commensurate with the price move. Still solid, still looking for the break higher on a bit more trade. To recap: Broke out from a 6 month base to start June, rallied to 20 and made its first test of that strong move over the past three weeks as the market sold off. Moved back to support at the 18 day EMA (17.95) on light trade, started back up off that level Thursday. Looking for it to continue the breakout move on some stronger trade to give us the entry point.
Volume: 282.577K Avg Volume: 310.453K
BUY POINT: New: On a continued move higher (orig. $18.44) Volume=350K Target=$22.32 Stop=$17.15
POSITION: IBU IW - Sept. $17.50c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/abmd.html
Play Date: 07/02/2008
TISI (Team, Inc.--$33.96; +1.09; no options): Specialty maintenance and construction services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tisi.html
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Tested back to support at the key 50 day EMA to finish the handle, now starting to bounce on rising, above average volume. Getting there, looking really good for a run at the breakout of its 7 month base.
Volume: 201.754K Avg Volume: 145.985K
BUY POINT: $35.54 Volume=225K Target=$42.75 Stop=$33.45
POSITION: - Stock (no option chain)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/tisi.html
CONTINUING LEADER PLAYS:
Play Date: 07/08/2008
ACN (Accenture--$39.99; -0.01; optionable): Management consulting, customer relationship services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/acn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 6-26-08
STATUS: Test breakout. Still in the pattern, holding at the 18 day EMA with a doji, setting for the next break higher. Tried the move Tuesday and of course was tossed back Wednesday. Has leveled back out and can now make the break higher. To recap: ACN broke out in late May from an 11 month base, rallying to 42. IN the market selling it tested, coming back to the 50 day EMA (39) during June, then gapped higher on earnings to end the month. Has tested that move this past week, holding near support at the 18 day EMA (39.89). Started back up Tuesday on lower but still solid, above average volume. If it continues following the money flow higher it is a buy.
Volume: 3.559M Avg Volume: 2.99M
BUY POINT: $41.48 Volume=4M Target=$47.95 Stop=$39.00
POSITION: ACN KH - Nov. $40c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/acn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
trade stock
|
