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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside: Some more solid upside patterns in solid sectors for this market
Play Date: 07/12/2008
AGU (Agrium--$101.47; +0.68; optionable): Agricultural chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/agu.html
EARNINGS: 8-6-08
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. AGU is coming off an early July test of the 50 day EMA (95.09), gapping up Wednesday on some strong, above average volume after a high volume reversal at the 50 day support on Tuesday. AGU double gapped higher in June, and this early July test has filled those gaps, setting the stage for some more upside, and the volume at the 50 day EMA as it held key support shows there is still a lot of support for the stock; the world has gotta' eat. It has more than doubled in the past year, however, so we are not looking for another double here, but a solid move up toward the June peak at 113.88.
Volume: 3.913M Avg Volume: 5.44M
BUY POINT: $102.55 Volume=6.5M Target=$114.95 Stop=$97.65
POSITION: AGU JU - Oct. $100c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/agu.html
Play Date: 07/12/2008
GILD (Gilead Sciences--$53.70; -0.89; optionable): Biotechnology
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gild.html
EARNINGS: 7-17-08
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. GILD has been on a steady climb for literally years. It is in the process of consolidating the last March to early June run out of a 10 week double bottom. It is now working on a 6 week base, bouncing off support following an early July selloff, testing the 50 day EMA on the Friday low and rebounding. Looking for a higher low here to set up the next break higher, and of course looking for that break higher on solid trade to move in. Right sector, and a higher low at the 50 day is a good point to launch a new rally.
Volume: 9.723M Avg Volume: 6.983M
BUY POINT: $54.68 Volume=10M Target=$61.75 Stop=$52.91
POSITION: GDQ KX - Nov. $52.50c (64 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gild.html
Play Date: 07/12/2008
HCBK (Hudson City Bancorp--$17.81; +0.33; optionable): Savings and loans
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hcbk.html
EARNINGS: 7-23-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Well what do you know, a small financial in excellent position to move higher. HCBK has made us money before, going to work for us in the first quarter. After a run to 20 it is basing, forming the current 10 week double bottom with handle pattern, using the 200 day SMA (16.35) on the lows of the two bottoms as support. That is where you want to see it hold on the lows. Volume has been superb, rising on the gains, falling on the lows, particularly the past week with two big upside volume gains. Friday was a super upside move. Money flow is surging and ready to move into HCBK as it continues the move higher.
Volume: 14.005M Avg Volume: 8.446M
BUY POINT: $18.21 Volume=12M Target=$21.95 Stop=$17.21
POSITION: KHQ JW - Oct. $17.50c (57 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hcbk.html
Play Date: 07/12/2008
PKI (Perkinelmer--$28.27; -0.72; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pki.html
EARNINGS: 7-24-08
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Volatile the past 6 weeks but in the bigger picture it is holding the handle of a 10 month base, moving higher the past week toward the top of its lateral consolidation. Volume surged Thursday as PKI moved higher, but it was up also on Friday as PKI fell right back down. The pattern is set, it is in a good sector, and if it makes the move we will move in with it.
Volume: 2.189M Avg Volume: 1.152M
BUY POINT: $29.26 Volume=1.6M Target=$33.95 Stop=$27.97
POSITION: PKI IF - Sept. $30c (48 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pki.html
Downside: Must be ready for the downside
Play Date: 07/12/2008
ECA (Encana Corp.--$82.95; +0.01; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/eca.html
EARNINGS: 7-24-08
STATUS: Put. Not all oil and gas is ready to bounce. ECA gapped higher in early May then moved laterally through early July, but gapped lower through the upside gap, tried to hold the 90 day SMA (84.50), but could not hold. It rebounded Thursday and Friday, only to hit the 90 day on the Friday high and fade. This gap up followed by a gap lower is an island reversal, and it typically leads to more downside. Looking for ECA to fail below this resistance level and head toward the 200 day SMA down at 75. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 4.17M Avg Volume: 3.388M
BUY POINT: $82.66 Volume=4.5M Target=$77.55 Stop=$84.68
POSITION: ECA TQ - Aug. $85p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/eca.html
Play Date: 07/12/2008
XEC (Cimarex Energy--$63.28; +0.06; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xec.html
EARNINGS: 8-5-08
STATUS: Put. Very similar action to ECA, i.e. a gap higher in early May, a lateral or broad umbrella top, then a gap lower in early July that took XEC below the 50 day EMA and the 90 day SMA (63.36). After that gap and selloff below the 90 day early in the week, XEC rebounded to test that breach with volume backing down as it made the moves back up. Showed a doji on the candlestick chart Friday, suggesting momentum is changing after the lower volume rebound. A failure here opens the door down toward 55. We are looking to capture a chunk of that move, and a run to the target lands a 45%ish gain.
Volume: 1.239M Avg Volume: 1.141M
BUY POINT: $62.97 Volume=1.4M Target=$58.25 Stop=$63.68
POSITION: XEC TM - Aug. $65p (-47 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/xec.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and your IH Alerts Team
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners in Online Investment Services, LP. or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
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