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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 07/14/2008
ALTH (Allos Therapeutics--$7.96; +0.21; optionable): Drugs
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/alth.html
EARNINGS: Early August
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle breakout. ALTH is in the zone of defensive sectors, and while some of the healthcare stocks ran into trouble Monday, not this one. ALTH set up a very nice 6 month classic double bottom with handle, jumping higher in late June on strong volume, starting the breakout. It came back to test last week after a nice breakout run to 7.75, holding at the 10 day EMA (7.40) Thursday and Friday on the lows. It broke higher Friday and continued the move Monday. Looked at it over the weekend and it continued the move today with some modest upside but on good volume so we are looking to take some positions as ALTH continues higher and then look at some more on its next test. Very solid.
Volume: 572.805K Avg Volume: 384.398K
BUY POINT: $8.06 Volume=500K Target=$9.85 Stop=$7.48
POSITION: QAT JU - Oct. $7.50c (77 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/alth.html
Play Date: 07/14/2008
ENER (Energy Conversion Devices--$68.04; +0.82; optionable): Solar semiconductors
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/e/ener.html
EARNINGS: 8-28-08
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. After a breakout in early Ma from a 4.5 month base and a tremendous surge from 35 to over 90, rising up the 10 day EMA (67.68) all the way, ENER needed a rest. It tumbled back in the market selling, falling to support at the 50 day EMA (61.20) on mostly lower, below average volume. Very typical move after such a solid breakout and run up the short term MA. After a test to the 50 day, if it can hold and consolidate a bit a stock resumes the run. Making a higher low, clearing the early June peak, and looking for a break over 70 on some volume to kick off the new run and give us a new buy.
Volume: 2.291M Avg Volume: 3.272M
BUY POINT: $70.11 Volume=4.9M Target=$80.95 Stop=$67.11
POSITION: EQI IN - Sept. $70c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/ener.html
Play Date: 07/14/2008
IOC (Interoil Corp.--$29.50; +0.96; optionable): Oil and gas refining and marketing
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ioc.html
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Broke out from a big 9 month cup with handle base in June and exploded higher over 40. Then it caved the move, falling back to the 50 day EMA (28.17) into last week, holding that level and moving laterally on low, below average volume. At least the selling volume was not all that heavy on the way down. It has climbed back up toward the May peak at 30, the initial breakout point. Strong volume Monday as IOC moved higher. Looking for continued solid trade as IOC clears that May high.
Volume: 1.974M Avg Volume: 1.089M
BUY POINT: $30.32 Volume=1.2M Target=$34.95 Stop=$28.18
POSITION: IOC IF - Sept. 30c (56 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ioc.html
Downside:
Play Date: 07/14/2008
NLC (Nalco Holding Co.--$20.00; -0.37; optionable): Chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/n/nlc.html
EARNINGS: 7-29-08
STATUS: Put. NLCE tried to fomr a base October to June and even broke out in June . . . for two days. Then it gapped lower and has continued lower since, trying to bounce and form a right shoulder, but never really getting the job done; quite weak. Sold to 20 to start July where there is some support from the March interim lows. Money flow continues lower ahead of the price, and with the 10 day EMA pushing down on it we are looking for NLC to follow the money lower. A move to the target lands a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 965.437K Avg Volume: 1.01M
BUY POINT: $19.79 Volume=1.5M Target=$18.11 Stop=$20.71
POSITION: NLC TD - Aug. $20p (-40 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/nlc.html
Play Date: 07/14/2008
STLD (Steel Dynamics--$33.76; -0.92; optionable): Steel & iron
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stld.html
EARNINGS: 7-21-08
STATUS: Put. After a last breakout in June in its series of breakouts and runs higher, STLD cracked to start July, falling from the leadership spot in steel. Broke its trend from January, the 50 day EMA, the 90 day SMA, and fell all the way to the 200 day SMA (now at 30.46) before managing a bounce. Made it up to the 90 day SMA (35.89) on the Monday high but then reversed to close lower. Looks as if the bounce to test the breakdown is rusting out. A move down to the target from here lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 3.717M Avg Volume: 4.66M
BUY POINT: $33.54 Volume=5.8M Target=$30.32 Stop=$34.71
POSITION: RQL TG - Aug. $35p (-52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/stld.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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