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yahoo stock, top stock pick
Begin Part 2 of 2
Weekly Economic Calendar (All times Eastern). The figures are the consensus expectations, not ours.
3-19-02
Trade Balance, January (8:30): -$26.9B versus -$25.3B%
FOMC Meeting (2:15): No cahnge in Fed Funds rate (1.75%). Balance of risks shifted to neutral.
3-20-02
Housing Starts, February (8:30): 1.63M versus 1.678M prior.
Building Permits, February (8:30): 1.65M versus 1.706M prior.
Treasury Budget, February (2:00): -61.0B versus -$48.2B prior.
3-21-02
Initial Claims, 3/16 (8:30): 377K versus 377K prior.
CPI, February (8:30): 0.2% versus 0.2% prior.
Core CPI, February (8:30): 0.2% versus 0.2% prior.
Leading Indicators, February (10:00): 0.3% versus 0.6% prior.
Philadelphia Fed, March (12:00): 17.8 versus 16.0 prior.
FOMC Minutes, 1/30 (2:00)
TEAM TRADES
OEX: We were looking at taking positions on the OEX if a good move started, planning on adding positions on a strong breakout over 600. The index started strong, running over our buy point at 92 and then pulling back to near 590. From there it started back up and we wanted to be in when it made the move back up. It started the move higher, making a gap up as it started its move. The index was right at 591.50 and the April $590 calls were 13.30 by 14.20. We had been seeing at $1 spread so the 90 cent spread looked pretty good. We put in a limit order at the ask, and with these options, the fill comes quickly. Well, it had a good rally after that. From 591.50 it ran to 594 on the high. Not bad; we were looking at a target of 600 on this aggressive move, maybe hanging on if the breakout came. It was looking good enough to stay with them. As we all know, the index falls, dropping to almost 589.50 on the low. It rebounded to close at 592.09. The options closed at 13.90 by 14.90, basically where we bought them. We are keeping them for the breakout we feel is still to come.
THE PLAYS:
Reading the Plays: Please note that when we reference the 10, 18, and 50 day moving averages (MVA), those are exponential moving averages (EMA). The 200 day moving average is always simple (SMA). We will note when we reference a particular MVA differently, e.g., a simple 50 day MVA. Please click on the Yahoo and chart links for company and charting information. A "prior high" refers to the high at the start of a base.
For conserving space on listings of stop losses, the symbol (7%) indicates that the stop is 7% below the buy point.
Good movers: ABTL, DLTR
Stop Advisory: ACE (41)
Stocks/Indexes from Monday's report:
HKF: Still tight in the ascending wedge pattern, and volume keeps building as of Monday, stronger and above average Tuesday.
NSC: Began its bounce from the 18 day MVA, though volume was sharply lower and below average.
ABTL: Nice bounce from the 18 day MVA, moving up toward breakout from the cup with handle and volume is strong!
PRIA: A small gain after bouncing from the 18 day MVA on Monday; volume lower.
MIK: Hit the buy point for the covered call, but volume was lower and below average, the stock showing a doji. A hold; target is 36 for the covered call play.
Continued Plays:
DLTR: After Monday's pullback, DLTR was back up again on rising volume after breaking out of the cup with handle.
DJX: A small move up in the flying plateau with volume rising. Still looking good.
HRLY: A volume spike in its test of the cup with handle breakout. A hold for buys at 20.05; the spike can point to another move up! March high is 20.60, achieved on the recent breakout.
LYTS: No news to explain this sell-off. The stock tanked to the 50 day MVA; it bounced but remains below the 18 day MVA. It broke out of a flag three days ago, but retraced all of that move.
Best Plays:
1) OMX: Pretty pattern.
2) TMCS: Strong bounce.
3) DZTK: Ready to head up in the handle.
4) ASL: Finally looks ready to break out here!
New play:
OMX (Officemax--$5.81; -0.04; optionable): Specialty Retail
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/o/omx.html
STATUS: OMX is testing the recent strong breakout from a nicely formed 4-month cup with a less-well-developed 2-month handle. The stock was volatile in the handle, testing the 50 day MVA a few times, but it was good enough to blast OMX up on the breakout, when it reached a closing high at 6.07. Volume has fallen off in the test (a flying plateau), down Tuesday to 516,400 (avg. 644,045) with OMX showing a very tight doji off a tap at the 10 day MVA (5.68; intraday low of 5.81). Looks ready to hold the support for another move up after the test! Money flow and buying are outstanding. Target: 8
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 5.95 on volume of 650,000 or higher. Stop Advisory (7%): 5.53. Breakout: 6.20 on volume of 870,000 or higher. Stop Advisory (7%): 5.77.
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/omx.html
TMCS (Ticketmaster Online--$27.89; +2.21; optionable): Internet Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tmcs.html
STATUS: Making a strong bounce from its 18 day MVA (25.63) with volume surging sharply above average to 1.5 million (avg. 961,900). TMCS cleared a flat base early in January, and for its test formed a month-long double bottom from which it broke out early this month. Now the stock is headed up again; there was no news behind the move. Looking for TMCS to clear the breakout high at 29.28 on continued strong volume. Excellent money flow and buying. Target: 32
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 28.25 on continued rising volume. Stop Advisory (7%): 26.27
POSITION: Stock and/or July $25 calls to buy (QMF GE).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/tmcs.html
DZTK (Daisytek Internat--$16.00; +0.01; optionable): Office Supplies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dztk.html
STATUS: Pulling back in the handle to a 7.5-month base and showing a tight doji at support, the 10 day MVA. The stock closed right there with a bullish shooting star doji and volume spiking above average to 227,600 (avg. 136,450), and from here looks ready to hold support and head up in the handle. Money flow is strong and buying excellent. Target: 21. A base within a base that spans 2 years.
BUY POINT: Aggressive: 16.70 on continued rising volume. Stop Advisory (7%): 15.53. Breakout: 17.63 on volume of 205,000 or higher. Stop Advisory (7%): 16.40
POSITION: Stock and/or June $12.50 calls to buy (QDZ FV).
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ct/dztk.html
Update:
ASL (Ashanti Goldfields--$4.98; +0.30; no options): Gold
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asl.html
STATUS: Moving up on good volume in the ascending wedge we first covered February 23. Volume was strong at 324,800 (avg. 180,000) as the stock popped up from its 10 day MVA (4.69), approaching resistance at the top of the pattern near 5.00. Looking for a continued move up to a breakout! The company Monday announced it had signed up some major creditors to a debt-reduction plan. Good buying and huge money flow. Target:
BUY POINT: Breakout: 5.10 on continued strong volume (243,000 is minimum required). Stop Advisory (7%): 4.74
POSITION: Stock.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/asl.html
PORTFOLIOS: Each report, we look at these to see which is in a buy position. We don't cover them all each time, just the ones that look ready to pick up a few shares.
THE LEADERS: DGX, FRX, LLL, MIK.
Covered Call:
LLL (L-3 Commun--$113.24; -3.06; optionable): Telecom Equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/l/lll.html
STATUS: We discussed the possibility of LLL moving down as a result of its recent double top this month, and on strong volume that is what the stock did Monday (933,100; avg. 622,000). It held at the 10 day MVA and tapped near the 18 day MVA on the low (that support is at 112.03), but if LLL continues to sell and breaks that support, we will look at selling covered calls on long-term holdings. The stock can fall to the 50 day MVA (105) on that move, a likely scenario given that is has been climbing since mid-January without a serious correction. After the drop and LLL holds at support, the calls can be bought back at a lower value.
SELL POINT: 111.90 on continued rising volume.
POSITION: April $105 calls to sell (LLL DA), selling for $10.20 at the close. For the 7-point drop (delta 0.79), those calls can fall in value to around $4.75.
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/lll.html
FRX ($84.10; +0.70): Has been on a nice run after it got over the 50 day MVA over a week ago. The stock reached 85 on its intraday high (recent closing high is 83.65) but closed back down showing a tombstone doji. Can pull back here, for a test of 82 or higher (February high is 82.80).
DGX ($78.85; -0.85): Continued lower for the covered call play. Target is 77 for support, where the calls can be bought back if the stock holds there.
UP & COMERS PORTFOLIOS: BBBY, SRCL
Covered Call:
SRCL ($66.10; +2.30): What a save. After selling through the 18 day MVA on Monday, the stock moved back up to the level of the recent plateau pattern. Volume was lower and below average, but the stock can hold above the 10 day MVA (65.29) for further consolidation.
MEMBER PORTFOLIO: CSCO, SEBL, EMLX, BRCM, HDI, BRCD, BUD, AMGN, WMT, ORCL, HB, NOC
HDI ($55.29; +1.19): Ready to break out of its little ascending wedge if it can muster the volume, and volume has been building over the last three days. Buy point is 55.91 (volume 2 million) for stock and/or August $50 calls to buy. The wedge formed after the stock broke over the 50 day MVA at the first of the month; HDI is in a 2-month base with a high at 57.
NOC ($111.82; +3.07): Nice move from this stock after consolidating in a little ascending wedge since the first of the month. It had pretty tough-looking resistance at the 110 range, but on today's move cleared the January closing high (111.61). Volume was the missing link, however, still well below average and just slightly rising. Still, a positive move.
AMGN ($62.31; -0.17): Looks like it may be topping after the 2-day run above the 200 day MVA (60.29). Showing a doji on lower volume, the stock can test can to the 61 range if it doesn't hold here. Volume needs to crank up; it has been below average since early this month and won't sustain the stock for more moves like this recent one unless it does.
EMLX ($28.46; +1.92): Bounced on strong volume, moving it off the low of 26.30, as far down as the stock's gotten for the put play (buy point was 29; target 25). It may not be able to break the 200 day MVA (30), but if it does, a close for existing positions.
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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yahoo stock
top stock pick
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