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us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Upside:
Play Date: 07/15/2008
AVAV (Aerovironment--$30.38; +0.92; optionable): Unmanned aircraft systems and energy technologies
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/avav.html
EARNINGS: Announced 6-24-08
STATUS: Test 18 day EMA. Broke out in late June (on earnings) from a nice 9 month base, its second base of its short life (came public in January 2007). Great breakout and rally up to 32 last week, coming back this past week to test, tapping the 18 day EMA on the Tuesday low (28.50) before rebounding for a nice gain on solid, rising, above average volume. Nice low volume test of the break to a new high showing no dumping or selling on the test. Looking to move in as AVAV continues higher with the breakout move.
Volume: 289.951K Avg Volume: 194.972K
BUY POINT: $30.79 Volume=300K Target=$36.95 Stop=$28.63
POSITION: VQS IF - Sept. $30c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/avav.html
Play Date: 07/15/2008
GIS (General Mills--$64.03; +0.79; optionable): Cereals and other packaged foods
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/g/gis.html
EARNINGS: Announced June 25
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. Strong, strong volume Tuesday as GIS cleared a 6 week base that consolidated the mid-April move out of a larger 10 month base. Nice short rest stop in the market selling, and now moving up sharply to a new high. A buy as it continues on up.
Volume: 6.314M Avg Volume: 2.672M
BUY POINT: $64.25 Volume=3M Target=$69.95 Stop=$62.12
POSITION: GIS JL - Oct. $60c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/gis.html
Play Date: 07/15/2008
IBB (NASDAQ Biotech ETF--$82.01; +1.65; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ibb.html
STATUS: Test 200 day SMA. Biotechs are getting money moving their way and a good way to play this is the ETF that is set up in great shape to make a run at the October high as money moves toward healthcare and medical stocks. Strong volume as July clears the July peak in its 9 month base. Money flow is screaming upside. Very nice.
Volume: 2.155M Avg Volume: 978.406K
BUY POINT: $82.21 Volume=1.5M Target=$88.89 Stop=$79.57
POSITION: IBB IP - Sept. $80c (73 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ibb.html
Downside:
Play Date: 07/15/2008
DUG (Oil & Gas Ultrashort ETF--$32.59; +2.58; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dug.html
STATUS: Upside play on a downside move in oil. Set up a rounded bottom over May to early July, rallied, tested to make a higher low, and with the move down in oil Tuesday, DUG started to breakout. Looking to play this as an upside play that moves higher as oil moves lower. Oil has been very stingy with its uptrend but this looks to be the end of this current trend higher that is in need of a deeper test.
Volume: 28.818M Avg Volume: 20.53M
BUY POINT: $32.71 Volume=25M Target=$36.75 Stop=$30.94
POSITION: DZG JF - Oct. $32c (61 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dug.html
Play Date: 07/15/2008
PDS (Precision Drilling--$24.60; -0.40; optionable): Oil and gas drilling
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pds.html
EARNINGS: 7-23-08
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Formed a square head May through June, then broke lower to start July, gapping lower. Found bottom last week and has made a low volume recovery to the 90 day SMA (25.22). Tuesday it turned over on a sharp volume surge. Looking to move in as it continues the break lower. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain. It can head lower than that as the 200 day SMA is down at 21.
Volume: 1.102M Avg Volume: 738.72K
BUY POINT: $24.15 Volume=75K Target=$22.05 Stop=$25.18
POSITION: PDS UE - Sept. $25p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pds.html
Play Date: 07/15/2008
USO (United States Oil Fund ETF--$112.39; -5.09; optionable)
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/uso.html
STATUS: Put. The flip of the DUG played with a buy of put options. USO has fallen back to its near trendline, holding it on the Tuesday close. Looks ready to fall further either toward the 50 day EMA (107) or down to the next trendline just over 105. If oil falls to $120, USO would fall to 97ish. Thus if there is a big breakdown in the mix our initial target could just be a way station on the way to that level. A move to the initial target lands a 35%ish gain.
Volume: 27.613M Avg Volume: 12.438M
BUY POINT: $112.06 Volume=14M Target=$107.11 Stop=$113.98
POSITION: IYS TH - Aug. $112p (-46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/uso.html
Play Date: 07/15/2008
WTI (W&T Offshore--$53.21; -2.21; optionable): Oil and gas drilling, exploration
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/w/wti.html
EARNINGS: Early August
STATUS: Put. Familiar pattern with a broader top in June then a crash lower to start July. WTI fell through the 50 day EMA (52.47) but then rebounded to the old upper channel line and failed Tuesday. It sold to the 50 day EMA on the low. Looking for it to break that level and give us a buy on the next leg lower. A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 952.586K Avg Volume: 956.07K
BUY POINT: $52.36 Volume=1.1M Target=$47.55 Stop=$53.39
POSITION: WTI TK - Aug. $55p (-50 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/wti.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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us stock market
stock recommendation
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