|
|
us stock market, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS: Quite a few plays but we have to be ready for the upside and the downside.
Upside:
Play Date: 07/18/2008
ASMI (ASM International--$29.80; -1.08; optionable): Chip equipment
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/asmi.html
EARNINGS: 7-31-08
STATUS: Test breakout. ASMI came back to the 50 day EMA (27.94) in the June to early July selling, moving laterally after the month started, coming back to test the breakout from its 8 month cup with handle base. Strong breakout and the market selling is giving us an opportunity here as it gaps higher Thursday then tested back to near support at the 10 day EMA (29.56) Friday on extremely low volume. The breakout took ASMI to its 2000 high. After this test looking for ASMI to make the next break higher and ride it up as it moves toward the new all-time high.
Volume: 27.648K Avg Volume: 128.514K
BUY POINT: $30.58 Volume=200K Target=$36.77 Stop=$29.22
POSITION: IQB IF - Sept. $30c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/asmi.html
Play Date: 07/18/2008
CFX (Colfax Corporation--$25.60; +0.66; optionable): Fluid handling products, specialty valves, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cfx.html
STATUS: Test breakout. CFX is a new issue, coming public in May. It moved up then formed a 6 week base, breaking higher two weeks back. Came back in last week's selling, holding the breakout Thursday and then starting the new bounce Friday. Needs some more volume, but a lot of energy and ready to move in as CFX continues the rebound from its breakout test. Burst onto the scene with some great momentum and it also enjoys excellent sales and earnings growth rates.
Volume: 255.401K Avg Volume: 1M
BUY POINT: $26.31 Volume=1.5M Target=$30.32 Stop=$24.65
POSITION: CFX IE - Sept. $25c (64 delta, 274 OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cfx.html
Play Date: 07/18/2008
IXYS (Ixys Corporation--$12.13; +0.09; optionable): Power semiconductors, integrated circuits, etc.
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/i/ixys.html
EARNINGS: Late August
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. After a roaring surge in late May on its last earnings report IXYS has formed the current 6 week base over a rising 50 day EMA that still has some catching up to get to IXYS. IXYS formed this base on top of the October peak that started the 8 month base IXYS jumped out of in May. A nice consolidation that used the market selling in early July to put in the second bottom to the base and lay the groundwork for the next breakout and run higher toward a 3-year high. Very solid. There are a group of semiconductor stocks moving to the fore similar to a cycling team moving to the front of the peloton to position itself for the ending sprint. Okay, a bit heavy on the Tour de France references of late, but when you have a sprinter such as Mark Cavendish taking four sprint stages you tend to get carried away.
Volume: 208.696K Avg Volume: 246.295K
BUY POINT: $12.66 Volume=350K Target=$15.31 Stop=$11.77
POSITION: UXS JV - Oct. $12.50c (49 delta, low OI) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/ixys.html
Play Date: 07/18/2008
MA (MasterCard--$280.86; -5.14; optionable): Credit services
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/m/ma.html
EARNINGS: 7-31-08
STATUS: Double bottom. MA is right back in the game. Gapped higher in late April on earnings and rallied nicely, but formed a head and shoulders top and sold off mid-June to early July along with the market. It caught itself at the gap up point, moved laterally, and then bolted higher with the rest of the market midweek. Nice easy test back Friday to the 50 day EMA on the close, pausing after the strong bounce off of the bottom of a 7 week base. May move laterally for another session or two as it consolidates the break higher. Whether it does or just heads right on up again we want to step in with some positions. A little more rest would be best, but we won't miss the move if it doesn't take a bit more rest.
Volume: 4.5M Avg Volume: 3.795M
BUY POINT: $283.11 Volume=5.5M Target=$319.95 Stop=$278.65
POSITION: MAL JY - Oct. $280c (50 delta) or MAL HY - Aug. $280c (52 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/ma.html
Play Date: 07/18/2008
SOHU (Sohu.com--$75.70; +1.61; optionable): Chinese internet
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/sohu.html
EARNINGS: 7-28-08
STATUS: Double bottom. Very similar to MA, SOHU surged higher starting late April with its earnings, moving out of a 5 month cup with handle base. Rallied to 90 but peaked with a head and shoulders that broke lower mid-June. Held the line well, working laterally more or less to end June and through last week. It used that move to set up a short double bottom at support along the 90 day SMA (67.45) and then jumped higher starting Wednesday and even put in a solid price and volume move Friday when most of the market did nothing. Strong money flow is moving higher ahead of price and SOHU looks very solid here.
Volume: 2.609M Avg Volume: 2.674M
BUY POINT: $76.08 Volume=3M Target=$89.95 Stop=$72.68
POSITION: UZK IO - Sept. $75c (57 delta) or UZK LP - Dec. $80c (46 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/sohu.html
DOWNSIDE:
Play Date: 07/18/2008
CNQR (Concur Technologies--$32.52; -0.38; optionable): Software
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/c/cnqr.html
EARNINGS: 7-30-08
STATUS: Double top. A big ranging double top formed with the December and May peaks at 40. Since then CNQR slide steadily lower in a jagged trendline, dumping lower through the 200 day SMA (33.27) to start July. A steep selloff followed by a low volume rebound to end last week, tapping at the 200 day again on Friday and then fading back. If it breaks lower we are ready to move in as it does. A move down to the target lands a 44%ish gain.
Volume: 293.561K Avg Volume: 757.5K
BUY POINT: $32.28 Volume=850K Target=$28.15 Stop=$33.32
POSITION: JCQ TG - Aug. $35p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/cnqr.html
Play Date: 07/18/2008
DD (DuPont--$44.20; +0.27; optionable): chemicals
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/d/dd.html
EARNINGS: 7-22-08
STATUS: Put. Formed a shallow head and shoulders through June, broke below the 200 day SMA (46.51) and failed the test. After a hard drop into July DD was so oversold it had to bounce, and when the market started so did DD. Three steps higher Wednesday to Friday and it was at the 50 day EMA (44.87). The pattern is basically wrecked and this straight up relief bounce from the selling sets up DD for more downside. Looking to move in as it turns back down. A move to the target lands a 52%ish gain.
Volume: 10M Avg Volume: 6.967M
BUY POINT: $43.88 Volume=10M Target=$41.55 Stop=$44.92
POSITION: DD TI - Aug. $45p (-58 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/dd.html
Play Date: 07/18/2008
PVA (Penn Virginia--$64.51; +1.88; optionable): Independent oil and gas
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/p/pva.html
EARNINGS: 8-6-08
STATUS: Head and shoulders. Tough times in the oil patch and despite the selling of late, PVA held on a bit longer but last week it could not withstand the tide. It formed a 4 week head and shoulders top then broke sharply lower Thursday on strong trade. The move took it through the 50 day EMA (65.48). Friday it rebounded on much lower trade, rallying through the 50 day EMA briefly, but failing to hold the move. As PVA is not strung out to the downside as are many energy stocks, this makes it a great candidate for the downside as the sector finishes a modest relief bounce and rolls back over. When it does we move in riding a move to the target that lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 1.017M Avg Volume: 796.883K
BUY POINT: $64.18 Volume=1.1M Target=$58.08 Stop=$65.55
POSITION: PVA TM - Aug. $65p (-46 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/pva.html
Play Date: 07/18/2008
SCHN (Schnitzer Steel--$88.87; +3.22; optionable): Steel
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/schn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 7-1-08
STATUS: Head and shoulders. A bit rusty, selling after a solid April to June run higher. After earnings it took the express route down through the 50 day EMA (96.46). Big drop, making most of the move in one session. Given the magnitude of that move it tried to bounce at support at 90, and managed to move laterally into last week though it could not move through the resistance. Thursday SCHN gapped lower on the strongest volume since the early July flop. Friday it bounced back, but failed at the 50 day EMA, very similar to PVA. Still plenty of room downside towards the 200 day SMA (75.70); our initial target is not that ambitious, but a move down to that level lands a 60%ish gain.
Volume: 1.301M Avg Volume: 731.642K
BUY POINT: $88.24 Volume=1M Target=$80.12 Stop=$90.44
POSITION: SQQ TR - Aug. $90p (-51 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/schn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
|
us stock market
stock recommendation
|
