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us stock market, trade stock
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Upside:
Play Date: 07/21/2008
ABI (Applera Corp-Appliaed Biosystems--$34.58; +0.34; optionable): Scientific & technical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/abi.html
EARNINGS: 7-24-08 before the open
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. Working on an 11 week consolidation or handle to a larger 9 month base, setting the foundation for a breakout move. With earnings Thursday, the catalyst for the breakout is potentially right around the corner. Like the pattern, but ABI can be volatile; thus not too enthused about moving in ahead of earnings, at least with a full position. If it shows a solid upside break on volume ahead of earnings we will look at a part position and then see how earnings come out; on a test of any post-earnings break higher we will look at adding. No rush. If it doesn't show the goods before earnings we won't push a position. Better to let it beat and wait for a test even if it takes a week after earnings to do so.
Volume: 2.728M Avg Volume: 2.71M
BUY POINT: $35.05 Volume=3.8M Target=$39.95 Stop=$33.48
POSITION: ABI LG - Dec. $35c (51 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/abi.html
Play Date: 07/21/2008
ATHR (Atheros Communications--$32.40; -0.73; optionable): Semiconductor integrated circuits
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/a/athr.html
EARNINGS: 7-28-08 after the close
STATUS: Cup w/handle. Weathered the selling by forming a handle to its nine month base, riding down to the 50 day EMA (30.85), bouncing off that key level last week on some solid volume, showing the buyers are still there as it moves toward the end of its base. An interesting chip stock as it holds near an all time high as it hammers out the base and the foundation to make the move higher. Nice break higher last week followed by a nice low volume test this week, holding the 10 day EMA on the lows good set up to make that break higher. Similar to ABI, it has earnings coming and we will play it the same way, i.e. if it shows a strong move ahead of it we can take some positions and then see if it gets a good earnings break we can pick up after a test. Again, no pressure to move in ahead of earnings if you don't like those plays as we can always pick up a breakout n the test.
Volume: 1.154M Avg Volume: 1.676M
BUY POINT: $33.78 Volume=2.5M Target=$39.77 Stop=$31.77
POSITION: QRA LF - Dec. $30c (65 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/athr.html
Play Date: 07/21/2008
TITN (Titan Machinery--$28.77; +0.89; optionable): Agricultural and construction equipment retail stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/titn.html
EARNINGS: Announced 6-16-08
STATUS: Test 50 day EMA. Taking a look at TITN again as it comes off of a higher low near the 50 day EMA (26.32), holding that key support during the market selling and following a strong May to June surge. A new issue in December 2007, TITN has shown great technical strength to match its strong earnings and sales growth rates. Looking for some solid trade as TITN continues higher off of this higher low.
Volume: 446.559K Avg Volume: 870.9K
BUY POINT: $29.08 Volume=1.3M Target=$34.95 Stop=$27.11
POSITION: QTD IE - Sept. $25c (66 delta) or QTD LE - Dec. $30c (45 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/titn.html
Downside:
Play Date: 07/21/2008
TRMB (Trimble Navigation--$32.57; +0.02; optionable): Positioning devices
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/trmb.html
EARNINGS: 7-24-08 after the close
STATUS: Head and shoulders. TRMB tried to form a 9 month cup with handle base and did even manage a breakout in mid-May. It turned in early June as the selling started, however, and it gave up its breakout in July, falling back below the 200 day SMA (33). It was not a high volume collapse, just a steady bleeding away. It rebounded last week to test the breach of the 200 day SMA, moving up to that level Friday and then again Monday, showing a pair of dojis on the candlestick chart at that point. After a move up or down a doji at resistance often signals a momentum change. We will simply let TRMB show us if it is ready to fall, looking for a solid uptick in trade as it heads lower. Earnings are Thursday after the close; we are tempted to move in on TRMB ahead of the results and let earnings take it even lower. It is not a bad company at all but it is on some harder times. If it falls and gives us a good downside run ahead of earnings we will take some off the table before it announces as a drop before earnings sets up some upside if the earnings maybe are not great but are not as bad as feared. If it is down ahead of that kind of news you often see a relief move. If we get the chance to lock in some gain ahead of that, why not take it? A move to the target lands a 41%ish gain.
Volume: 752.71K Avg Volume: 1.451M
BUY POINT: $31.97 Volume=1.8M Target=$29.04 Stop=$33.11
POSITION: TUH UG - Sept. $85p (-53 delta, no OI)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/trmb.html
Play Date: 07/21/2008
XOM (Exxon--$82.98; +1.44; optionable): Big oil
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/x/xom.html
EARNINGS: 7-31-08
STATUS: Put. XOM is making the relief bounce after diving lower last week as it broke down from its double headed head and shoulders top. An ugly break lower took it near 78, and as oil rebounded modestly from its selling the energy stocks did the same. XOM is near its 10 day EMA (83.34), bouncing on lower, below average volume Monday. Watching to see if XOM tops out at the 10 day and then starts back down. If it does that is a sign of a very weak stock as it failed at the nearest resistance, a good sign for the downside play. XOM made us some good money in one of its prior downside legs and with this relief bounce it is setting up to do it again. If it bounces a bit higher that is okay; we will move the buy point up with it as long as it still looks weak on the move and let you know that new buy point. A move to the target lands a 42%ish gain.
Volume: 24.805M Avg Volume: 27.529M
BUY POINT: $82.68 Volume=3M Target=$78.55 Stop=$83.72
POSITION: XOM UQ - Sept. $85p (-53 delta)
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/xom.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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