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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS:
Tonight only new plays are receiving full write-ups given Jon Johnson and other staff are traveling this week as they talk with some companies in the western US.
New Pre-Announcement plays:
Play Date: 07/23/2008
BDX (Becton Dickinson--$85.47; +1.52; optionable): Medical instruments
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/b/bdx.html
EARNINGS: 7-24-08
STATUS: Trend reversal. Making higher lows after a January peak and a series of lower highs into late June. BDX bottomed and started to rally, coming off a test in the second week this month. Strong volume, then a rest on Monday, then back at it Tuesday on a shot of rising volume. Has the momentum right now along with some huge money flow leading the way higher. Earnings on Thursday before the open. Strong move and willing to take some positions ahead of earnings if BDX can continue the move. As with other pre-earnings plays the risk is higher and thus we are not taking a full position ahead of the results. You can always wait and move in after earnings and any pop higher on those earnings when the move is tested.
Volume: 1.929M Avg Volume: 1.553M
BUY POINT: $85.95 Volume=2.3M Target=$98.95 Stop=$83.38
POSITION: BDX LQ - Dec. $85c (53 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/bdx.html
Play Date: 07/23/2008
TJX (TJ Max--$35.00; +0.88; optionable): Discount department stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tjx.html
EARNINGS: 8-12-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Strong break higher last week as TJX cleared a 15 week flat base, rising on very strong above average volume. Peaked on this initial move Friday, gapping higher then reversing intraday to close negative. It needed a test of support after that initial breakout surge, and it has come back to test near support at the 10 day EMA (33.65), consolidating the break higher and setting up what looks to be a serious breakout move. Strong money flow is helping lead the way.
Volume: 5.294M Avg Volume: 5.491M
BUY POINT: $35.36 Volume=6.2M Target=$40.85 Stop=$33.48
POSITION: TJX JG - Oct. $35c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tjx.html
POST-SPLIT PLAY:
Play Date: 07/23/2008
HCBK (Hudson City Bancorp--$19.03; +1.05; optionable): Savings and loan
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hcbk.html
EARNINGS: 7-23-08 before the open.
STATUS: Double bottom. Earnings are out before the open Wednesday, and HCBK is looking strong moving into the results. Tuesday it started the breakout from a short but nicely formed 11 week base, moving on some solid volume as it made the move. Strong volume accompanied this last test lower and the rebound off the 200 day SMA. Very nice action and looking positions in HCBK after earnings. If it dips on some good results, holds the pattern, and then starts to move back up (and that can be intraday or over a few days) we can move in. If it jumps on earnings we let it come back to test (and that can be intraday or over a few days as well) and move in as it resumes the move higher. Very solid and we will see if it can keep the momentum going.
Volume: 10.721M Avg Volume: 8.798M
BUY POINT: $19.29 Volume=12M Target=$22.32 Stop=$17.94
POSITION: KHQ JW - Oct. $17.50c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hcbk.html
Play Date: 07/23/2008
STZ (Constellation Brands--$22.43; +0.91; optionable): Wineries, distilleries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stz.html
EARNINGS: 7-1-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. STZ is breaking higher from a short 10 week base that formed after STZ bottomed March through May. Indeed, the current short base is actually the right shoulder to a larger 7 month reverse head and shoulders pattern. Broke over the key 200 day SMA (21.30) last week, tested the past few sessions, then was breaking back to the upside Tuesday on rising trade. These bases formed at the bottom of a long decline for STZ and it is reversing its trend now and looks very positive. Strong money flow is leading the way higher. Looking for a modest gain initially, but if STZ continues showing great strength we will let it run for us.
Volume: 2.184M Avg Volume: 2.23M
BUY POINT: $22.66 Volume=3M Target=$25.95 Stop=$21.07
POSITION: STZ JX - Oct. $22.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/stz.html
Play Date: 07/23/2008
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$32.60; +1.28; optionable): Teen apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
EARNINGS: 8-14-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. URBN has formed up again after that early July tumble, holding support with a full test of the 200 day SMA (28.93). A hard tumble to that point, but it held that key level on strong volume and bounced last week, putting the second bottom in its 11 week base. Nice surge, a side-step Friday and Monday, and then back to business Tuesday on a strong shot of volume. Looking for a breakout on more solid trade to give us the buy point on this solid stock.
Volume: 4.604M Avg Volume: 3.841M
BUY POINT: $32.94 Volume=5M Target=$37.95 Stop=$30.63
POSITION: URQ LF - Dec. $30c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cs/urbn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and the Stock Split Report Staff.
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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