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trade stock, stock recommendation
Begin part 3 of 3
THE PLAYS
Upside:
Play Date: 07/23/2008
HCBK (Hudson City Bancorp--$19.03; +1.05; optionable): Savings and loan
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/h/hcbk.html
EARNINGS: 7-23-08 before the open.
STATUS: Double bottom. Earnings are out before the open Wednesday, and HCBK is looking strong moving into the results. Tuesday it started the breakout from a short but nicely formed 11 week base, moving on some solid volume as it made the move. Strong volume accompanied this last test lower and the rebound off the 200 day SMA. Very nice action and looking positions in HCBK after earnings. If it dips on some good results, holds the pattern, and then starts to move back up (and that can be intraday or over a few days) we can move in. If it jumps on earnings we let it come back to test (and that can be intraday or over a few days as well) and move in as it resumes the move higher. Very solid and we will see if it can keep the momentum going.
Volume: 10.721M Avg Volume: 8.798M
BUY POINT: $19.29 Volume=12M Target=$22.32 Stop=$17.94
POSITION: KHQ JW - Oct. $17.50c (70 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/hcbk.html
Play Date: 07/23/2008
STZ (Constellation Brands--$22.43; +0.91; optionable): Wineries, distilleries
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/s/stz.html
EARNINGS: 7-1-08
STATUS: Reverse head and shoulders. STZ is breaking higher from a short 10 week base that formed after STZ bottomed March through May. Indeed, the current short base is actually the right shoulder to a larger 7 month reverse head and shoulders pattern. Broke over the key 200 day SMA (21.30) last week, tested the past few sessions, then was breaking back to the upside Tuesday on rising trade. These bases formed at the bottom of a long decline for STZ and it is reversing its trend now and looks very positive. Strong money flow is leading the way higher. Looking for a modest gain initially, but if STZ continues showing great strength we will let it run for us.
Volume: 2.184M Avg Volume: 2.23M
BUY POINT: $22.66 Volume=3M Target=$25.95 Stop=$21.07
POSITION: STZ JX - Oct. $22.50c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/stz.html
Play Date: 07/23/2008
TJX (TJ Max--$35.00; +0.88; optionable): Discount department stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/t/tjx.html
EARNINGS: 8-12-08
STATUS: Breakout test. Strong break higher last week as TJX cleared a 15 week flat base, rising on very strong above average volume. Peaked on this initial move Friday, gapping higher then reversing intraday to close negative. It needed a test of support after that initial breakout surge, and it has come back to test near support at the 10 day EMA (33.65), consolidating the break higher and setting up what looks to be a serious breakout move. Strong money flow is helping lead the way.
Volume: 5.294M Avg Volume: 5.491M
BUY POINT: $35.36 Volume=6.2M Target=$40.85 Stop=$33.48
POSITION: TJX JG - Oct. $35c (55 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/ci/tjx.html
Play Date: 07/23/2008
URBN (Urban Outfitters--$32.60; +1.28; optionable): Teen apparel stores
http://biz.yahoo.com/p/u/urbn.html
EARNINGS: 8-14-08
STATUS: Double bottom w/handle. URBN has formed up again after that early July tumble, holding support with a full test of the 200 day SMA (28.93). A hard tumble to that point, but it held that key level on strong volume and bounced last week, putting the second bottom in its 11 week base. Nice surge, a side-step Friday and Monday, and then back to business Tuesday on a strong shot of volume. Looking for a breakout on more solid trade to give us the buy point on this solid stock.
Volume: 4.604M Avg Volume: 3.841M
BUY POINT: $32.94 Volume=5M Target=$37.95 Stop=$30.63
POSITION: URQ LF - Dec. $30c (58 delta) &/or Stock
http://www.investmenthouse.com/cd/urbn.html
Good Investing!
Jon L. Johnson and The Daily Staff
All of the foregoing is commentary for informational purposes only. All statements and expressions are the opinion of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants and are not meant to be a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. We are not licensed or registered in the securities industry. The information presented herein and on our related web site has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed. The security portfolio of Partners of Online Investment Services, LP or its paid consultants may, in some instances, include securities mentioned herein and on our web site. Estimates, assumptions and other forward-looking information are subject to the limits of forecasting. Actual future developments may differ materially due to many factors.
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trade stock
stock recommendation
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